From Maj Pain In Iraq

[Major Pain]

Missions are going very well for us. We have detained several bad guys and corresponded warrants for them. The weather has been hot, then full of sand as the movie like sandstorms roll into our area. As we conduct our partnered American and Iraqi missions, we compliment one another as they can notice things we cant and we can bring a hell storm to the scene in a blink of an eye. I know you arnt hearing anything about how well the Iraqi’s are doing but they are doing great things, every day. They are listening to us, learning and when we see them make several small strides we know we are on the right path. Some working for free, only to make a difference. They are making a difference!

Springtime for Nouri

[Greyhawk]

The Washington Post:

THERE'S BEEN a relative lull in news coverage and debate about Iraq in recent weeks -- which is odd, because May could turn out to have been one of the most important months of the war. While Washington's attention has been fixed elsewhere, military analysts have watched with astonishment as the Iraqi government and army have gained control for the first time of the port city of Basra and the sprawling Baghdad neighborhood of Sadr City, routing the Shiite militias that have ruled them for years and sending key militants scurrying to Iran. At the same time, Iraqi and U.S. forces have pushed forward with a long-promised offensive in Mosul, the last urban refuge of al-Qaeda. So many of its leaders have now been captured or killed that U.S. Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker, renowned for his cautious assessments, said that the terrorists have "never been closer to defeat than they are now."

Iraq passed a turning point last fall when the U.S. counterinsurgency campaign launched in early 2007 produced a dramatic drop in violence and quelled the incipient sectarian war between Sunnis and Shiites. Now, another tipping point may be near, one that sees the Iraqi government and army restoring order in almost all of the country, dispersing both rival militias and the Iranian-trained "special groups" that have used them as cover to wage war against Americans.

(Via Glenn Reynolds)

Here's how I said it last October:

We've won the war.

This is the only "but":

Lt. Gen. Odierno is absolutely right to note: "it only takes three people" to construct and detonate a suicide car bomb that can "kill thousands". And John Kerry was wrong when claiming (in an effort to undermine homefront morale in another war) that no one wants to be the last man to die for a mistake. In fact, al Qaeda will always have someone eager to prove him wrong.

Yes, they could pull off a "Tet". Hell, they could manage something like their own version of the battle of the bulge, but the reality is they're whipped.

They brought ass, we kicked it.

That first paragraph will be true forever, but I think my Tet/Bulge scenario - as far as al Qaeda is concerned - is less likely now. (As for Iran, keep scrolling.)

If Barack Obama (per WaPo urging) and Hillary Clinton could rapidly re-work their withdrawal policy the last hope for terrorist victory in Iraq would be crushed. Not sure Obama is positioned to do that any time soon though - his withdrawal from his "church" might be all the "change" he can afford this week.

But we can surely "hope".

Nan's Kampf

[Greyhawk]

Ooops:

Ms. Pelosi: What I hope we don’t hear from General Petraeus next week is any glorification of what has just happened in Basra and a presentation that says that the Iraqi forces went in there, did the job, violence is diminished, mission accomplished, because the fact is there are many questions that arise in relationship to Basra.

...they [Iraqi troops] weren’t winning this engagement on their own. It wasn’t until the U.S. came in to help that the resolution came about.

Poor Nan didn't realize at the time she'd credited US troops and validated the need for the surge and their continued presence - so here's the retraction:

Whatever the military success, and progress that may have been made, the surge didn’t accomplish its goal. And some of the success of the surge is that the goodwill of the Iranians-they decided in Basra when the fighting would end, they negotiated that cessation of hostilities-the Iranians.

A trick they learned from the Russians, who ended the Cold War in a slightly less dramatic fashion then Hitler - who, you will recall, decided when to end WWII in Europe.

See also here and the posts immediately below.

Re: Maysan

[Greyhawk]

...which is actually the topic of another post at Major John's.

There's an excellent document titled "The Calm before the Storm: The British Experience in Southern Iraq" available here. It's from February, 2007, but while not "current" it's a great backgrounder.

I'd also recommend the article Forgotten Iraq - The War in Maysan Province.

Maysan promises to be a tough nut to crack. Should Maliki turn his focus in that direction I predict another round of "failure" stories coupled with examination of how Iran is benefiting tremendously from the effort. That story cycle might run a bit longer than the Basra news.

By the way, loved this picture:

Why I fight - in pictures

[Major John]

Don't waste any anger on the downbeat tone of the writing, but instead - give credit to the WaPo for letting the world see these images. They tell, in better elequence than a hundred blog posts of my writing, of why I am here helping the Iraqi Army .