When Blackfive speaks - CENTCOM listens.

Blackfive spoke of this. I opened my e-mail today and saw ...

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and

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Good work, Blackfive.

OK, now for a serious story!

Enough of this light heartedness. On to serious business.

Rummy going?

Rumor mill going that Rummy is going away. I have always been a fan of Rummy - have the bruises to prove it. That being said, on the POL side of the POL/MIL brain - when a Cabinet member becomes more of a story in a national election than the CINC, and a bad one at that, it is perhaps time to get rid of the distraction.

Lov'um - but 6 months too late.

Clearing datum.

UPDATE: Looks like Bob Gates. Go Aggies (or whatever the Cow Univ cheer is)!

Rumsfeld to Resign

Effective immediately. Can't find a link yet, but it's being reported (and confirmed) on FOXNews.

Update: Link here.

Update: President Bush confirms. The President wants Bob Gates (former CIA chief) to become the new SecDef.

Gates Wiki profile here.

Personal thought: Confirmation hearings should be interesting, no matter when they occur.

President Bush describes the "cumulative effect" of the election results as "a thumpin'" I'll say.......

President taking questions from reporters now. This reminds me of one thing I'll miss about Rummy. He sure knew how to manhandle the press corps.

Vietnam discussion ensues. Of course....

"If you had any do-overs to do....what would they be?"

President Bush replies, "When you look close at the results....No question Iraq had an impact..." President Bush goes on to discuss how difficult it is to win in the write-in states.

Mid-January 2007

At least nine Iraqi provinces will be under sovereign Iraqi control.
At least eight Iraqi divisions will own their battlespace.
The Iraqi Army will have more than 150,000 members.(WIth plans to grow by 5,000 a month)
The Iraqi Ministry of Interior will have more than 200,000 members.(With plans to grow by 3,000 a month)
The 10th and Final Iraqi army combat outpost will be in place and manned in Ramadi.
The 34th ID and 1st BCT of the 1st Armour Division will be looking forward to going home.
Speaker Pelosi will unveil her Grand Plan to reduce the number of brigades in Iraq from 15 to 13.

Congressman Sestak

So for a new congressman I bet there's a staff opening or two coming up for this new guy from Pennsylvania. I think I've heard of him from somewhere.

Anybody on this blog applying for the job?

It's Late!

More tomorrow. My opinions on the elections (before the results were in) here.

Here's my post-'04 election essay, written in Baghdad. Tomorrow will be about the same for the troops there now.

Vermont: Sanders

An "independent":

Bernie voted against the $87 billion that the President requested for Iraq. Given where we are right now, Bernie believes that the United Nations and the international community should take the lead in stabilizing and rebuilding Iraq, and that American troops should be withdrawn as soon as feasible.

I'm not a military expert, but it is time for the United States to work out a redeployment strategy that gives our military strike force capability while at the same time allowing the Iraqi military to take the lead in securing their country.

West Virginia: Byrd

But Iraq doesn't make it on to his issues page.

Update:Found it

Our country needs a plan for bringing U.S. troops home, starting with the National Guard.
<...>
Our troops are not trained for urban warfare and policing missions like those they have been forced to undertake in Iraq.

Montana: Too close to call

Republican Conrad Burns

Recently, America has been vigorously debating the Administration’s exit strategy for Iraq. I maintain my support for our troops deployed in this dangerous area, and I support the Administration’s plan for success. I agree with the President that our troops should not remain in Iraq a day longer than is necessary, but we cannot afford to pull out too early, or we will leave Iraq in shambles. Only when Iraqi security forces are adequately trained and equipped will it be possible for the U.S. to decrease military operations. In the meantime, our troops need every ounce of our support as they continue to fight an active and lethal insurgency. I assure you I will continue to do everything in my power to bring our troops home safely, while ensuring the future of a stable, free Iraq.

Democrat Jon Tester

Montanans deserve a senator who’ll demand the President present a clear plan to give the Iraqi military control of their own country and bring our troops home.

Missouri: Too close to call

Democrat Claire McCaskill

Claire knows we cannot occupy Iraq indefinitely. We cannot train Iraqi police and military forces indefinitely. And we must tell the Iraqi leaders it is not our intent to remain indefinitely.

America must set the agenda for peace and stability in Iraq. In order to do so, Claire believes we must engage our traditional allies as well as the neighboring countries in the region who have an interest in a stable Iraq and an end to the conflict. Moving forward we must have a responsible strategy that is not "cut and run" or "stay the course." Changing the course is essential so that our national security cannot be held hostage to Iraq's inability to make the difficult political choices and compromises necessary to form a credible government.

We must establish benchmarks for the formation of a government. During the next two years, we need to transition to a multinational security force and redeploy our troops to best protect our long term national security interest. Such action should give the Iraqis the time to create a stable country.

Republican Jim Talent: Iraq does not exist on Talent's issues page.

Wait - here's more on his official Senate page:

I support President Bush's decision to take military action in Iraq. Much tangible progress has been realized despite the efforts of insurgents. I had the opportunity to travel to Iraq and our service personnel are nearly unanimous in their belief that they are making a positive difference in Iraq.

Tennessee: Corker

Who says:

We need to fix our strategy in Iraq so we can get the job done and bring our troops home. We should have gone in with more troops. Going forward, I want to ensure we listen more closely to our military commanders on the ground and make sure they have all the tools and support they need to succeed. A successful Iraq strategy should:

Establish security first, focusing on hotspots, like Baghdad;
Weaken and disarm private militias (like the Mahdi Army);
Allow Iraqis to draw their own internal borders, not dictate the map from Washington;
Continue training Iraqi forces to boost their numbers and capacity, so that more than just several thousand at a time are capable of fighting at a level similar to that of U.S. forces.

Arizona: Still Pretty Red

Sen. Kyl (R) re-elected, Cong. Renzi (R) re-elected... Napolitano (D) re-elected Gov.. Mitchell (D) defeats incumbent Cong. J.D. Hayworth (R)... and it looks like Graf (R) will win as well for Cong.

as for those proposals, the effects of illegal immigration in this border state were clearly on voters' minds: proposition to make English AZ's official language won 74% of the vote; punative damages for illegal immigrants are now prohibited (they can still sue in court and receive compensatory (actual) damages; state programs and benefits (like in-state tuition rates) for people here illegally are now prohibited, and if you are in the US illegally and you commit a felony, you will no longer be eligible for bail/bond regardless of the offense.

meth users will no longer be eligible for probation for 1st or 2nd convictions
state legislators will NOT get a raise to $36,00 from $24,000
the minimum wage will be raised from $5.15/hr to $6.75/hr. Jan. 1
all bars and restaurants will be smoke-free (and the tobacco comapny sponsored "smoke free if the owner says so" legislation was defeated)
condemnation of private property by eminent domain will be restricted
farmers will now be required to provide enough space for animals to stand and turn around
there will NOT be a $1 million lottery for voters
the AZ constitution will NOT be amended to define marriage (the law already prohibits same sex marriages)

all in all, a pretty good day in Arizona (and the weather was quite lovely today as well)

Indiana: Lugar

Ran without Democrat opposition.

"Elevating the Debate":

U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Dick Lugar has commenced a series of letters to his fellow Members of Congress to “strive to elevate our debate by studying thoughtful sources of information and embracing civility in our discourse.” Each letter will be made public on this page.

The idea, somehow, that civil war means that we leave is a non- starter, because Iraq’s physical integrity is important.

Arizona: Kyle

Fox.

Kyle (R):

Some senators, understandably expressing frustration with the expenses and mistakes we have incurred in Iraq, have argued for a specific date for withdrawal. That would be, we believe, a serious mistake. America has unfinished business in Iraq, and our troops cannot leave yet. … When the U.S. puts its prestige and its military on the line, there is only one exit strategy possible: victory.”

I would push the administration for a plan that establishes measurable goals for stabilizing the country and concrete conditions to bring our troops home. There should be no permanent U.S. military bases in Iraq.
In the meantime, we need to get our troops off the streets and out of the way of the IED's. We have to make the Iraqis take responsibility for policing their communities. That means concentrating our forces in forward operating bases around the country where they can safely train Iraqi security personnel and respond to any serious crisis.

Michigan: Stabenow

Fox News says:

Democratic U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, capitalizing on voters' discontent with President Bush and policies she says have been bad for Michigan, won re-election Tuesday over Republican challenger Mike Bouchard.

Stabenow does not have an "issues" page - but she does have an "agenda". Iraq is not on her agenda.

More:

Q: Any limit on time for our involvement in Iraq?
STABENOW: Most challenging situation. It's our job to give them everything they need. I've been to Iraq, met with Ministers. We are not there forever. The Iraqis need to shore up so our people can step back. We're doing excellent training of their people.

Virginia: Too close to call

Allen (R):

In Iraq, our troops have done a tremendous job helping Iraqis build a democracy in a formerly oppressive, terrorist-friendly dictatorship. Immediately withdrawing our military from Iraq would be forfeiting to the terrorists, and I disagree strongly with those who suggest that we should leave precipitously."

There is no end in sight to the conflict in Iraq...

...we need to straighten out the mess in Iraq.
<...>
First and foremost is Iraq. Iraq is in a crisis that we must address now in order to make progress on all other security matters.
<...>
The key question facing us is how long we should be expected to occupy Iraq. Someday we are going to leave.
<...>
For more than two years, Jim Webb has been proposing a formula that might lead to the end of our occupation of Iraq. The first step would be for this Administration to say unequivocally that our country has no desire to occupy Iraq in the long term... In the short term, we could move our troops out of the country but within the region – strong possibilities could be Jordan and Kuwait. This would give us the ability to contain the terrorist threat within Iraq without continuing our occupation. From there, we could then bring them home when we’re sure the withdrawal is working.

The second step would be for us to begin immediate discussions with those countries that are culturally and historically invested in Iraq, and arguably aligned with us, to become overtly involved in a diplomatic solution, taking responsibility at some level for future stability among Iraq’s competing factions. This is do-able.
<...>
We must forego the slash and burn political tactics that have marked the last six years, and reach for a true solution to the war in Iraq and the chaos in the Middle East."

Survey Says:

Polls:

The exit polls showed that 42 percent of voters called corruption an extremely important issue in their choices at the polls, followed by terrorism at 40 percent, the economy at 39 percent and the war in Iraq at 37 percent.

Nationally, 57 percent of voters said they disapproved of the war in Iraq, while only 41 percent approved.

That, or Americans don't listen to what their candidates say. It's entirely possible that many "anti-war" folks are going to be a bit disgruntled next year - unless a lot of these Senators-elect go against their word once they get to Washington. (Heh)

We'll see how the "referendum on Iraq" line plays tomorrow.

CNN: Dems take House

Pelosi pops a cork:

Democrats will have a net gain of at least 15 seats to take the House when all votes are counted, CNN projects.

"We are now tonight on the brink of a great Democratic victory," said Rep. Nancy Pelosi, who is in line to become the first female speaker of the House.

“General Casey, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, confirmed this morning that staying the course – no matter what slogan this Administration chooses to attach to it – means it will be another 12 to 18 months before the Iraqis will be able to provide security for their country. With the war in Iraq now more than three and a half years old, Iraq engulfed in chaos, and U.S. casualties continuing to mount, this is simply unacceptable.

Pennsylvania: Bob Casey

Two-term Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, the chamber's third-ranking Republican, has conceded to Bob Casey Jr.

Casey says:

The situation in Iraq has no easy solutions. Our troops are doing an outstanding job in battling insurgent forces.

Too many Washington politicians continue to shirk their duty to press the hard and necessary questions about our involvement in Iraq. Bob Casey will push for a clear exit strategy and real plans for the Iraqi forces to take care of their own security, and development of a government structure that is widely seen as legitimate among Iraq's various ethnic groups. This year should be a year of transition for the Iraqis to take responsibility for their own security and governance.

Maryland: Cardin

(Accordng to CNN projection)

Democrat, staunch opponent of the war:

Ben Cardin parted with most of his colleagues in Congress and voted against the war in Iraq. He has been an outspoken critic of the Bush administration's handling of the war and he believes that we need a change of course, and we need it now.

Ben Cardin supports a plan that will rotate all American combat troops out of Iraq by the end of 2007 and will bring the National Guard units home first.

Ben Cardin has called for 2006 to be a year of serious transition in Iraq and has sponsored an amendment requiring President Bush to present Congress with a plan to bring our troops home.

Update: Not so fast! This call from CNN

Democrats have retained two of their Senate seats that were considered competitive, with incumbent Bob Menendez winning in New Jersey and Ben Cardin taking Maryland, CNN projects.

Update 2: It's back.

New Jersey: Menendez

...who sez:

Senator Menendez believes we must change the course of events in Iraq and begin the phased redeployment of forces this year. President Bush and the Bush Congress confused military might for moral strength. It is an arrogance that has cost us our bravest and a conceit that has lost our nation the ethical high ground that has earned us admiration around the world since our nation was founded. It has also hampered our pursuit of Osama bin Laden and other Al Qaeda terrorists.

Even though Bob voted against President Bush’s misguided war in Iraq, he supports ours troops – both at home and abroad.

The President's Victory Plan

..can be read here, by the way. Excerpts follow:

OUR NATIONAL STRATEGY FOR VICTORY IN IRAQ:
Helping the Iraqi People Defeat the Terrorists and Build an Inclusive Democratic State

Victory in Iraq is Defined in Stages
Short term, Iraq is making steady progress in fighting terrorists, meeting political milestones, building democratic institutions, and standing up security forces.
Medium term, Iraq is in the lead defeating terrorists and providing its own security, with a fully constitutional government in place, and on its way to achieving its economic potential.
Longer term, Iraq is peaceful, united, stable, and secure, well integrated into the international community, and a full partner in the global war on terrorism.
<...>
Our Strategy for Victory is Clear
We will help the Iraqi people build a new Iraq with a constitutional, representative government that respects civil rights and has security forces sufficient to maintain domestic order and keep Iraq from becoming a safe haven for terrorists. To achieve this end, we are pursuing an integrated strategy along three broad tracks, which together incorporate the efforts of the Iraqi government, the Coalition, cooperative countries in the region, the international community, and the United Nations.

Q: Mr. President, you've often used the phrase "stand up, stand down," to describe your policy when it comes to troop withdrawals from Iraq -- as Iraqi troops are trained and take over the fight, American troops will come home. The Pentagon now says they've trained 294,000 Iraqi troops and expect to complete their program of training 325,000 by the end of the year, but American troops aren't coming home, and there are more there now than there were previously. Is the goal post moving, sir?

THE PRESIDENT: No, no. The enemy is changing tactics, and we're adapting. That's what's happening. I asked General Casey today, have you got what you need? He said, yes, I've got what I need.

We all want the troops to come home as quickly as possible. But they'll be coming home when our commanders say the Iraqi government is capable of defending itself and sustaining itself and is governing itself. And, you know, I was hoping we would have -- be able to -- hopefully, Casey would come and say, you know, Mr. President, there's a chance to have fewer troops there. It looked like that might be the case -- until the violence started rising in Baghdad, and it spiked in June and July, as you know -- or increased in June and July.

And so they've got a plan now, they've adapted. The enemy moves; we'll help the Iraqis move. So they're building a berm around the city to make it harder for people to come in with explosive devices, for example. They're working different neighborhoods inside of Baghdad to collect guns and bring people to detention. They've got a "clear, build and hold" strategy.

The reason why there are not fewer troops there, but are more -- you're right, it's gone from 135,000 to about 147,000, I think, or 140,000 something troops is because George Casey felt he needed them to help the Iraqis achieve their objective.

And that's the way I will continue to conduct the war. I'll listen to generals. Maybe it's not the politically expedient thing to do, is to increase troops coming into an election, but we just can't -- you can't make decisions based upon politics about how to win a war. And the fundamental question you have to ask -- and Martha knows what I'm about to say -- is: Can the President trust his commanders on the ground to tell him what is necessary? That's really one of the questions.

In other words, if you say, I'm going to rely upon their judgment, the next question is, how good is their judgment; or is my judgment good enough to figure out whether or not they know what they're doing? And I'm going to tell you I've got great confidence in General John Abizaid and General George Casey. These are extraordinary men who understand the difficulties of the task, and understand there is a delicate relationship between self-sufficiency on the Iraqis' part, and U.S. presence.

And this is not a science, but an art form in a way, to try to make sure that a unity government is able to defend itself, and at the same time not be totally reliant upon coalition forces to do the job for them. And the issue is complicated by the fact that there are still al Qaeda or Saddam remnants or militias that are still violent. And so to answer your question, the policy still holds. The "stand up, stand down" still holds, and so does the policy of me listening to our commanders to give me the judgment necessary for troop levels.

Ohio: Brown

CNN: Democratic challenger Sherrod Brown over GOP incumbent Mike DeWine.

Brown

We need to listen to our military leaders closely and work with them on specific goals in Iraq so we can bring our troops home.

(Note: I'm not bothering to post the "No plan, Bush lied, no armor" statements of any of the candidates - just what they really say about when the troops should come home.)

Rhode Island: Whitehouse

CNN projects Democratic challenger Sheldon Whitehouse will win the Rhode Island Senate race, defeating Republican incumbent Lincoln Chafee.

Whitehouse:

I support a rapid and responsible withdrawal of our troops from Iraq. To do that, we need to make it clear to the Iraqis and to other nations that we are in withdrawal mode. Iraqis must understand that very soon they will assume responsibility for the security, governance and administration of their country. We need to do this for our country and for our troops.

This is the closest thing I could find to a "position" on Iraq on Senator Chaffe's campaign web page:

As the situation in Iraq, as well as US engagement in the region, evolves, Senator Chafee maintains constant focus on the political climate of that war torn nation. Senator Chafee has visited Iraq twice, most recently in 2005, when he met with the American Ambassador to Iraq, military officials, members of the Iraqi political council, and Rhode Island service members. By remaining in touch with political leaders and with the men and women 'in the trenches,' Senator Chafee gets the best information in order to continue playing a vital role in the development of country and regional strategy.

Chafee, the 53-year-old son of the late Senator John Chafee, one of the last of the Rockefeller Republicans in Congress, was the lone Republican senator to vote against the war in Iraq, and he has bucked President Bush on numerous issues, including abortion rights, the environment, and the legalization of gay marriage.

Florida: Bill Nelson

...will retain his Senate seat over Republican challenger Katherine Harris.

Nelson "believes we cannot leave Iraq until the Iraqi security forces are fully trained and the Iraqi government is both stable and representative."

I'll continue posting projected winners and their positions on Iraq until I grow tired or bored. Others are hereby invited to join in, via comments or posts. Please include supporting links.

CNN Projects...

...Kennedy maintains his Massachusetts seat. Apparently his close ties with John Kerry didn't hurt him after all. Mary Jo Kopechne could not be reached for comment.

But seriously folks, in the one lesson that shoud be taken to heart by any and all political pundits: Lieberman will continue to represent the people of Connecticut. This result, more than any other, says a lot. Is it repeatable elsewhere? Probably not - so don't expect too many to listen.

Kennedy has no discernable position on Iraq. He declares it a "quagmire" and states "it’s time for the President to listen more carefully to the advice of those who disagree with his misguided policy." But this is his closest approach to a position: "Iraqis must begin to take responsibility for their own future, so that we can begin to reduce our military presence in the country." Which is a more forceful re-statement of the President's position.

Lieberman, 2005:

It is no surprise to my colleagues that I strongly supported the war in Iraq. I was privileged to be the Democratic cosponsor, with the Senator from Virginia, of the authorizing resolution which received overwhelming bipartisan support. As I look back on it and as I follow the debates about prewar intelligence, I have no regrets about having sponsored and supported that resolution because of all the other reasons we had in our national security interest to remove Saddam Hussein from power – a brutal, murdering dictator, an aggressive invader of his neighbors, a supporter of terrorism, a hater of the United States of America. He was, for us, a ticking time bomb that, if we did not remove him, I am convinced would have blown up, metaphorically speaking, in America's face.

I am grateful to the American military for the extraordinary bravery and brilliance of their campaign to remove Saddam Hussein. I know we are safer as a nation, and to say the obvious that the Iraqi people are freer as a people, and the Middle East has a chance for a new day and stability with Saddam Hussein gone.

We will come to another day to debate the past of prewar intelligence. But let me say briefly the questions raised in our time are important. The international intelligence community believed Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction. Probably most significant, and I guess historically puzzling, is that Saddam Hussein acted in a way to send a message that he had a program of weapons of mass destruction. He would not, in response to one of the 17 U.N. Security Council resolutions that he violated, declare he had eliminated the inventory of weapons of mass destruction that he reported to the U.N. after the end of the gulf war in 1991.

I do not want to go off on that issue. I want to say that the debate about the war has become much too partisan in our time. And something is happening here tonight that I believe, I hope, I pray we will look back and say was a turning point and opened the road to Republican and Democratic cooperation, White House and congressional cooperation, to complete the mission.

Update/correction: Lieberman's Democrat opponent, I should specify. I forgot he had a Republican challenger too - but so did Connecticut voters.