France has been even bold enough to say that the test might have failed:

France estimated it as merely the equivalent of about 500 tons of TNT, and did not confirm that it was the result of a nuclear device, The Associated Press reported.

Russia tends to think the test was a success:

Russia’s defense minister, Mr. Ivanov, said that the Russian military had confirmed the test and estimated its force at somewhere between 5 and 15 kilotons — much larger than estimates from South Korea.

Predictably nations around the world have condemned the North Korean nuclear test. Even Venezuela condemned the nuclear test, however one country didn't:

Iran, which is already at odds with the United Nations Security Council over its own nuclear program, stood out from the general mood of condemnation. Its state-run radio today blamed pressure from the United States for North Korea’s decision to test, A.P. reported, calling it “a reaction to America’s threats and humiliations.

Pressure? Like enforcing US counterfeiting laws and allowing North Korea international aid so they can use their scarce resouces to build nuclear weapons? How would Iran like the North Koreans counterfeiting their money? If anything the US has been more than tolerant for too long of North Korea. I do think this test is not good for Iran because if quick and decisive action is taken on North Korea the global community may wrap Iran into any resolutions to come in stopping the development of nuclear weapons there as well.

Here is what the US President George Bush had to say:

President Bush on Monday said North Korea's claim that it has tested a nuclear weapon is a threat to international peace and said the world "will respond."

"The transfer of nuclear weapons to states or non-state entities would be considered a grave threat to the United States," Bush said. "And we would hold North Korea fully accountable to the consequences of such action."
Bush said the U.S. was still trying to verify North Korea's claims that it had tested a nuclear weapon on Monday.

Here is what US Democrats had to say:

Senate Democrats quickly condemned North Korea, but they criticized the Bush administration as well.

The Democratic leader, Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, assailed North Korea for its “reckless and counterproductive actions.” But he asserted that the Bush administration has been in a “state of denial” about North Korea, in part because the administration has been “distracted by Iraq and parayzed by internal divisions.” A comprehensive review of American policy toward North Korea is essential, the senator said.

Senator Christopher Dodd of Connecticut said the administration had “wasted the last five-plus years sitting on the sidelines” and must now use its influence with China and South Korea to bring the North to the table. Senator Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts said the administration “must go into diplomatic overdrive” and work with its allies in the region. And Senator Charles Schumer of New York said that, in addition to undertaking a diplomatic offensive, the United States must develop nuclear-detection devices as soon as possible.

“North Korea going nuclear shows how much we need allies to succeed in the war on terror,” Mr. Schumer said.

"State of Denial" is new the Democratic catch phrase after the name of Bob Woodward's new book critical of the Bush Administration. I guess the "Culture of Corruption" catch phrase just wasn't cutting it anymore. So what review of policy do these Democrats want? Give Kim Jong-il his pay day that he has been demanding? That was tried in 1994 and didn't work. Then of course Senator Kennedy uses the other Democratic catch phrase, "work with our allies". If there is any issue that the US government has worked with allies on, it is this one. The US has consistently made it a policy to deal with North Korea in the context of the six party talks so that regional allies in the area were involved in resolving the crisis. Now the Democrats are coming out and saying we need to work with our allies when before they were blasting Bush about not holding bi-lateral talks with Kim Jong-il. Then Schumer talking about developing nuclear detection devices I can only assume he is referring to nuclear detection devices in all of the US ports so North Korea can't send a boat into New York and nuke it as absurd of a scenario that, that is. As usual the Democrats offer no ideas only criticism and demagoguery.

So what should the US do? Well you can post your opinion and read many others over at the New York Times Blog. The responses are definitely all over the place from people wanting to attack North Korea, which is easy to say when you wouldn't be the person crossing the DMZ to do it, others saying that Bush will nuke North Korea in order to win more votes for the Republicans, more saying that Bush created this nuclear crisis to win votes as well, and a host of other Bush conspiracy theories. Others believe that if the US would just give up their nuclear weapons then no one else would want to possess them. Bottom line most of the responses are America is bad and it is all Bush's fault. Expect more of this chorus from the left.

I for one think this is a success of US policy if you are for the policy of North Korean regime collapse. I have been advocating calling Kim's bluff and it worked with the missile tests in July because now US intelligence now knows North Korea's ICBM capabilities are not advanced as thought as well as now knowing that the NK nuclear program is also not as advanced as thought with this smaller than expected test. Kim Jong-il showing his hand may be a sign of the regime getting desperate for an aid deal and is thus increasing the stakes. The winter time is coming in North Korea after the nation was hit with severe floods that ruined much of their crop harvest this summer. The threat of famine is very real and the increased US and international sanctions is hitting the regime hard. I think regime collapse is a real possibility in the next two years if the US continues to be successful in cutting off aid into North Korea. However, if the appeasers get their way, and th aid is not cut off the Kim mafia state will more than likely survive, perfect their nuclear and ICBM capabilities, the gulags will remain full, and expect another crisis to happen again as soon as Kim needs more aid. If nuclear brinkmanship worked in 1994 and then worked again now, why wouldn't it work yet again with another US administration? At least this is what Kim Jong-il is counting on and he may be right.

North Korea has never had any intentions of giving up it's nuclear program, the failure of the 1994 Agreed Framework only confirms this. The North Koreans were happy to appear to give up their ambitions of wanting nuclear weapons in return for international aid while covertly working on them any way and playing nice to the international community. Things changed with the Bush Administration. President Bush's policy is that the North Koreans will not receive US aid unless it thoroughly without a doubt ends their nuclear weapon program. Bush wasn't about to cut a deal just to keep the North Koreans quiet and out of the headlines and pass the problem to a future presidential administration that would allow the North Koreans to continue to receive aid while at the same time covertly working on their nuclear weapons program. If Bush had cut a deal with the North Koreans and let's say a Democratic president takes power in 2008 and the North Korean nuclear issue came up again what do you think that Democratic Administration would be saying about the deal Bush cut with the North Koreans? They would say it is a failure and that is one of the reasons why Bush isn't dealing.

Now why do the North Koreans want nukes so bad? The North Koreans want nuclear weapons to ensure regime survival from any chance of outside attack. The threat of an outside invasion of North Korea is null and void if they have the ability to nuke Seoul or Tokyo, two of the world's largest cities. Keep in mind that they do not have that capability yet because they have not miniaturized their nukes to fit on one of their missiles. It probably won't take them too many more months to do it though. So the positives from this test from Kim Jong-il's perspective is that he has gained the country international prestige, moved closer to ensuring regime survival at least from international attack, and has won heavy favor from his generals by allowing them to detonate a nuclear weapon.

So what are the potential negatives for Kim? The worst threat would be an attack on North Korea from the US. If an attack on North Korea is just a bombing campaign to destroy his nuclear facilities than this would actually be a positive for him because then he could play the victim of the evil US imperialist card, roll out footage of civilian casualties on CNN, and use the attack to prove his point of why he needs nuclear weapons. So a limited attack on his country would be a major win for him. However, a full scale military attack to remove him would obviously end with his removal. I think this possibility is not likely because a second Korean War would lead to hundreds of thousands of South Korean deaths, hundred of missiles would land on Japanese cities potentially killing thousands of Japanese, and US military casualties would number into the thousands. The casualties from a second Korean War would easily dwarf the number of casualties from the current Iraq War. The highly mountainous Korean terrain is not conducive to the American military. Many battles would be fought by dismounted infantry in hill fights; this is what would lead to the thousands of casualties not to mention the potential of chemical and biological weapons being used. Bottom line any war with North Korea would be a destructive blood bath that the American public is not ready to fight. So this option is pretty much out the window and Kim Jong-il knows it.

The next negative for Kim Jong-il is threat of increased sanctions on his country. He knows that more sanctions are sure to come but is counting on China and South Korea to keep him a float. Kim may be reasoning that China is not willing to cut aid to his country that would lead to it's collapse because of the refugee and humanitarian crisis that would instantly engulf China before they host the 2008 Olympic Games. The Chinese consider the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing as their coming out party to the world that the Chinese are now truly a global superpower. War and a humanitarian crisis in China could threaten the games that the Chinese have worked so hard to prepare for. Thus Kim Jong-il figures the Chinese will talk tough just to appease the international community but will still give him the aid he needs. Kim also figures that as long as the leftist Roh Moo-hyun administration is in power in South Korea he will still keep getting aid from them as well though as I've mentioned before possibly the US worked out a deal with the South Koreans to stop aid to the North in return for the support of Ban Ki-moon as UN Secretary General if the North Koreans conduct a nuclear weapons test. With these two countries still providing him aid he knows his country can with stand any further sanctions that would hit the country. Maybe a couple more million people from the North Korean peasant class will starve to death but judging from Kim's track record he really doesn't care. He is only concerned about bringing home the money and power to the military and his regime elite in Pyongyang.

So there are the positives and the negatives and obviously the positives for Kim outweigh the negatives and that is why I felt he would test the bomb; once again the only thing I was surprised by was the timing.

So what happens now? China will probably talk tough, but we will have to actually wait and see if they do anything tangible such as implement real sanctions on the North Koreans. I expect the same thing from South Korea but they will keep the aid going into North Korea. New Japanese Prime Minister Abe will have the hawks in Japan demanding that Japan also develop nuclear weapons which would create an arms race in northeast Asia with possibly South Korea than wanting to develop nuclear weapons as well. The US will get more sanctions implemented on North Korea and pressure China and South Korea to do the same. The US will also continue to to downsize USFK and I expect the hand over of war time control to still happen in 2009 despite the nuclear test. The Democratic Party in the US right now are pissed off that this October surprise out did their own Foley-Hastert-Woodward-leaked intelligence reports, October Surprises before the US mid-term elections though the Democrats will of course claim that Bush is to fault because to them he is at fault for everything. The Republicans on the other hand are all smiles right now since they will probably gain votes from this test and Foley is out of the headlines. As far as the UN, especially with South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon taking over expect nothing, but a resolution implementing increased sanctions and of course lots of rhetoric because that is what the UN is good at.

While all of this is going on North Korea will continue to get by on what little aid it gets and continue to perfect their nuclear weapons technology in the hopes that they can become the Pakistan of northeast Asia.

Note: Cross Posted Here.

Let's see...when Zbig was the head honcho what did we have....

We ended support to the Shah so that "A man of the cloth"(Ayatolloh Khomeini) could bring peace to the Middle East.
An Afghan-Soviet war that eventually left an estimated million dead.
An Iran-Iraq war that eventually left an estimated million dead.

But hey...Carter got a Nobel Peace Prize for solving the Palestinian Crisis....

Sesame Street has the best summary of the Carter National Security Team

via Sesame Street

Fantasy play, a magical part of early childhood, may be an experience shared by several children, or it may involve a child by herself—using her imagination to transform a block of wood into a car, for example, or a doll into a sleeping baby. But in all of its forms, make-believe is a vital part of childhood development, particularly during the preschool years.

Navy promotion boards are statutory boards. They have certain laws that have to be followed. I am of the personal opinion, despite not personally being deep selected for six star admiral, that the process is as fair as humans can make such a thing. (Fitness reports have more variability, which the boards depend on, but my point stands.) Humans, of course, foul up everything they touch, so the promotion process isn't perfect.

If a man is getting out "because of up or out", that means he's failed to select for promotion twice. A lieutenant commander can be allowed to stick around to retirement with a board under current rules. So, I assume the guy mentioned didn't make it last year, and didn't make it this year.

According to the BuPers web site, the Navy selected 9.38% of its above zone LCDRs to promote to commander. Less than one out of ten JAGs passed over once made CDR.

The previous year, an in zone JAG LCDR had a 62.5% chance of being selected. That's close to top half-bottom half selection. If a guy wasn't in the top half last year there would have to be something spectacular in the record to propel him to the top nine percent this year.

This year's board was held in March; the fitness reports were due in by the end of October 2005. Unless this particular fellow was working on his current law case in October (I don't know) and the nature of it was in his fitness report or a letter to the board written by the officer to the board (attachments are OK) or as positive information (not negative) from a board member who happened to know what the guy's working on, there is no way for the board to even know about this to make a decision.

Finally: Navy guys, if you care about such things take a look at the board membership on the BuPers web site. I don't know those JAGs; can't speak for them. Those I do know on that board are honorable. Those that I know on that board include ones who would not stand for knowingly screwing over a guy because of controversy.

So. My conclusion: Guy was passed over twice. Second time is a lot harder than first. The information about the noisy case might not have been in the board, and noisy cases do not automatically mean the guy on the case is superb (even the marginal guys are great officers; they're picking superlatives here). Board included members who have moral courage.

I don't buy the claim of shenanigans.

(Off topic: It is generally difficult for a senior rating officer in one service to write a punchy fitness report for a guy in a different service, by the way. OPRs are not FITREPs are not et cetera. Sometimes this can hurt a guy. I'm not saying this was the case, and have no information either way, just mentioning it to my joint brethren here in case they ever get in a joint situation involving reports. Find a good writer in that service, because a badly written FITREP can kill your career!)

-- -- --