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Yon's dispatch outlines his argument that Iraq's in a civil war and the Iranians are getting ahead.
I've heard others mention similar about Iran, where Iranian-funded NGOs (similar in structure to the Lebanese hospital the Israeli SOF hit last week because it was also a command center for Hizballah) are moving into the security space provided by the Brits in the south of Iraq. Austin Bay (podcast, about thirty minutes in) isn't as in agreement.
What Yon is saying about civil war has good points, and there certainly is conflict, but I'm not so sure that he's right. The first reason is the scale; it's not exactly Appomattox, more of a slightly bigger version of the Troubles. The second is something that GI in Korea might have comments on, that the forces of reaction (keeping things like they've been for a thousand years) are fighting the forces of modernity (everything from social mores circa 1895 to today), and that sometimes those fights can be stalled and lengthened due to external pressure.
Thoughts?
Phibian,
Ralph Peters is on the same theme as you. I've summarized his latest over at my place.
And let me tell you, I've got a lot of "Air Power Über Alles" to deal with in an Air Force environment...
For those taking notes; after the jump you can find my Top-5 that came to mind this AM as I reviewed the fish-rap and looked at what seemed to be goofy as things start to coagulate around the Litani River.
Man-oh-Manischewitz, I would love to see the Israeli OPLAN to know what they were looking at when this started.
Via the RCP blog, Atlantic Monthly National Correspondent James Fallows defends his "Declaring Victory" piece in an essay here that better explains what he's talking about.
...A state of war with no clear end point makes it more likely for a country to overreact in ways that hurt itself, especially by losing the moral high ground that was crucial to America's victory in the Cold War. It also makes it harder for the country to do the patient work of tracking down, catching, and thwarting the "copycat" groups, since that depends so heavily on relations with allied countries and with sympathetic Muslim groups. Remember: it was police work, surveillance, and patient cultivation of sources that broke the airline bombing ring – not speeches about a state of war.
CNN is reporting that
The cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah will start at 5 a.m. GMT on Monday, U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan says.
How do you get oil and gas (and water) supplies from the sea to fighting forces on the beach?
One Navy answer was the AOG - the subject of the Sunday Ship History here.
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