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August 03, 2006

Is It Time To Declare Victory?

[Eddie]

James Fallows thinks so in a cover story for the September Atlantic:

The thesis:

The United States is succeeding in its struggle against terrorism. The time has come to declare the war on terror over, so that an even more effective military and diplomatic campaign can begin.

Continue reading "Is It Time To Declare Victory? "

The good news:

But the overall prospect looks better than many Americans believe, and better than nearly all political rhetoric asserts. The essence of the change is this: because of al-Qaeda’s own mistakes, and because of the things the United States and its allies have done right, al-Qaeda’s ability to inflict direct damage in America or on Americans has been sharply reduced. Its successor groups in Europe, the Middle East, and elsewhere will continue to pose dangers. But its hopes for fundamentally harming the United States now rest less on what it can do itself than on what it can trick, tempt, or goad us into doing. Its destiny is no longer in its own hands.

the threat that remains:

“It is not the people al-Qaeda might kill that is the threat,” he concluded. "Our reaction is what can cause the damage. It’s al-Qaeda plus our response that creates the existential danger.”

Our New Mission:

The United States can declare victory by saying that what is controllable has been controlled: Al-Qaeda Central has been broken up. Then the country can move to its real work. It will happen on three levels: domestic protection, worldwide harassment and pursuit of al-Qaeda, and an all-fronts diplomatic campaign.

Domestically, a sustainable post-victory policy would mean shifting from the early, panicky “Code Orange” days, in which everything was threatened and any investment in “security” was justified, to a more practical and triage-minded approach. Four analysts—Mueller, of Ohio State; Lustick, of the University of Pennsylvania; plus Veronique de Rugy, of the American Enterprise Institute; and Benjamin Friedman, of MIT—have written extensively about the mindlessness and perverse effects of much homeland-security spending. In most cases, they argue, money dabbed out for a security fence here and a screening machine there would be far better spent on robust emergency-response systems. No matter how much they spend, state and federal authorities cannot possibly protect every place from every threat. But they could come close to ensuring that if things were to go wrong, relief and repair would be there fast.

Internationally, the effort to pin down bin Laden—to listen to his conversations, keep him off balance, and prevent him from re-forming an organization—has been successful. It must continue. And the international cooperation on which it depends will be easier in the absence of wartime language and friction. The effort to contain the one true existential threat to the United States—that of “loose nukes"—will also be eased by smoother relations with other countries.

An intriguing article that is unfortunately available only to subscribers.

Without a doubt, an announcement by Pres. Bush along these lines would likely bring out the worst in partisanship as conspiracy theories and people with all kinds of debased human motives would come out of the woodwork. But the enormous amount of resources and time spent already, the human sacrifice, has resulted in a victory that we need to acknowledge.

Regardless of certain political groups and leaders, the "emergency" would be over. Let there be a slight pause between the War on Terror and the "Long Struggle/War" for clear thought, real reform and calm discourse after the announcement. We can't win a "Long Struggle/War" on short-term emergency thinking. We need to step back and see where we're going. In particular, too much of the world is freeloading off our sacrifice and hard work, and we need to recalibrate our strategy and efforts in the long run to reverse this untenable situation. A nation may not have "friends", but it certainly has and needs allies.

All done!

Posted at 2209Z

Alternate Realities

[Dadmanly]

I read an Op Ed in the New York Times today that warranted closer scrutiny, beyond the particulars of its argument. If this piece reflects the level of mastery of logic possessed by a typical Political Science Professor, than God help those students of the political arts.

The basis for my prayer is Ground to a Halt, written by Robert Pape of the University of Chicago. Here’s how he launches his argument:

ISRAEL has finally conceded that air power alone will not defeat Hezbollah. Over the coming weeks, it will learn that ground power won’t work either. The problem is not that the Israelis have insufficient military might, but that they misunderstand the nature of the enemy.

Contrary to the conventional wisdom, Hezbollah is principally neither a political party nor an Islamist militia. It is a broad movement that evolved in reaction to Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in June 1982. At first it consisted of a small number of Shiites supported by Iran. But as more and more Lebanese came to resent Israel’s occupation, Hezbollah — never tight-knit — expanded into an umbrella organization that tacitly coordinated the resistance operations of a loose collection of groups with a variety of religious and secular aims.

In terms of structure and hierarchy, it is less comparable to, say, a religious cult like the Taliban than to the multidimensional American civil-rights movement of the 1960’s. What made its rise so rapid, and will make it impossible to defeat militarily, was not its international support but the fact that it evolved from a reorientation of pre-existing Lebanese social groups.

Hezbollah. Not a terrorist gang, not a radical Islamic militia, not a tool of the Iranians and Syria. Hezbollah, more a state of mind or movement, just like the US Civil Rights Movement. Rights for terrorists and other dreamers of the 7th Century Caliphate. That’s more reprehensible a comparison than oft-criticized Hitler and Nazi allusions (made by those all over the blogosphere).

I think it folly for casual observers such as Pape to assume that Israel somehow “conceded” anything, or that the chain of events from initial Israeli response to Hezbollah aggression to the current ground offensive weren’t part of a long range plan. Wretchard of The Belmont Club makes the point better than I in posts here and here.

That’s the same false assumption that lies behind a lot of uninformed reporting about Iraq, where the US military and Iraqi Security Forces continue to work through a long and involved process that may have bumps and unexpected developments, but pretty much going as one might expect, and the smart folks at the Pentagon clearly understood and anticipated. Not that that convinces the chatterers.

Israel may as well surrender, this line of thinking goes, because the enemy they face is against ideas and states of mind, a “multidimensional movement” rather than an armed militia. (A movement, by the way, that sustains its existence by force of arms, violence and physical intimidation.)

I say baloney. Hit them hard, attack their terrorist-making and violence making capabilities. Deny them safe havens anywhere. Block their retreat and supply lines. Make it very difficult for their allies. Kill them. Once they are destroyed by overwhelming force, let’s see how much staying power the “Hezbollah state of mind” retains. I have a hunch that the other long-suppressed political factions in Lebanon may have a different point of view when the Israeli’s finish the job and pull back to wherever they choose to pull back to.

(Extended commentary, and links to another excellent piece by Lee Smith, over at Dadmanly.)

Posted at 2055Z

U.S. to train Lebanese Army

[SMASH]

Looks like we'll be getting involved in Lebanon, again.

WASHINGTON - The United States plans to help train and equip the Lebanese army so it can take control of all of its territory when the warfare between Israel and Hezbollah eases, the State Department said Thursday.

Fortunately, this proposal doesn't appear to include American "boots on the ground" in Lebanon. Because I don't expect the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah to "ease" anytime soon.

Posted at 2025Z

I Shall Smite Others, Too!

[Dadmanly]

If Hezbollah gets any angrier, Lord knows what they’ll try next.

“And if you continue your insane aggression against us, we shall throw our mighty rockets even further, and cause them to land upon the Egyptians and Jordanians!”

Meanwhile, the ever predictable Palestinians cheered on their own destruction, and threw a party in response to the errant Hezbollah targeting.

(H/T Instapundit guest host Michael Totten)

(Cross-posted at Dadmanly)

Posted at 1826Z

PUC Trivia Question

[Bubblehead]

Being that August 3rd is an important day in Navy history (from 48 years ago), I was doing some research on Presidential Unit Citations, and found that there are two instances of PUC awardees being authorized to wear a specific distinguishing device (other than repeat pips) on their PUC ribbon. Any guesses what they are? (Answers in the comments, please; although I hesitate to leave comments open until the spammenter receives the punishment John Noonan mentioned earlier, I'll keep them open for a couple days.)

Posted at 0559Z

Sixteen Years Ago...

[Andi]

More than 100,000 Iraqi soldiers backed up by 700 tanks invaded the Gulf state of Kuwait in the early hours of this morning.
Iraqi forces have established a provisional government and their leader Saddam Hussein has threatened to turn Kuwait city into a "graveyard" if any other country dares to challenge the "take-over by force".

Iraqi jets have bombed targets in the capital and special forces have landed at the defence ministry and at the Emir's palace. Road blocks are in place and there are reports of looting in the city's shops.

Initial reports suggest up to 200 people have been killed in heavy gunfire around the city.

It is reported that the younger brother of Emir Sheikh Jaber al-Sabah has been killed whilst trying to defend the palace, while the Emir himself has escaped to Saudi Arabia.

All communication has been cut with Kuwait and many people, including thousands of foreign nationals, are trapped in the city.

Remember that day? Flash forward.

Posted at 0208Z

Is It "Surrender" if You Retreat Before the Fighting Even Starts?

[ArmyLawyer]

U.N. Again Postpones Peacekeeper Meeting

But France, considered a possible leader of a peacekeeping force, wants fighting to stop immediately, to create the political framework, and then to send the troops. France has refused to take part in a meeting of nations willing to contribute troops. That refusal has now led the U.N. to postpone the meeting twice.

Pretty soon they'll just start giving up territory because Germany "was lookin' at 'em funny."

Posted at 0159Z