Continue reading "Reconciliation "

With the media focused on the continuing terrorist campaign in Iraq, a number of political developments that affect the big picture in that country have gone largely unreported. These developments started with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's decision to think the unthinkable and come out with a national reconciliation plan.

Regarded as anathema by those nostalgic of the former regime, the concept of reconciliation also sounded alarm bells among Kurdish and Shiite communities that had suffered under the Ba'ath. According to sources within the new Iraqi government, sections of the coalition that supports Maliki in the National Assembly (parliament) were also opposed to reconciliation in any form. At one point last May, two key groups within the coalition even threatened to walk out if Maliki insisted on the plan.

But Maliki managed to isolate the critics within his coalition, with the discreet but decisive support from Grand Ayatollah Ali-Muhammad Sistani, the primus inter pares of Shi'ite theologians in Najaf. By last week, the only Shiite group still opposed to the reconciliation plan was the entourage of Muqtada al-Sadr, the young firebrand mullah with a base in the slums of northeast Baghdad.

Winning Kurdish and Shiite support for the plan, however, was just the first step. Far more difficult was to persuade the Arab Sunni minority, some 15 percent of the population, to come on board.

This is because, contrary to common perceptions, the Arab Sunni community is divided into dozens of groups, often based on tribal loyalties, with no overall leadership. One result of that division is that each group, anxious to appear more hard-line than the others, contributes to what amounts to an auction on radicalism. It tooks weeks of negotiation, often conducted through tribal intermediaries inside Iraq and in neighboring Jordan, to achieve a breakthrough.

By last week, 22 Arab Sunni armed groups had agreed to join the process initiated by Maliki. According to Akram al-Hakim, the minister in charge of national dialogue, the groups that have come on board account for a majority of those who have been fighting in the four Sunni provinces since the autumn of 2003. At the same time, a group of 18 senior officers of the former regime's army have met with President Jalal Talabani to seek ways of bringing hundreds of Arab Sunni cashiered officers and NCOs into the new Iraqi army and police.

Excluded from the process are the Salafi armed groups, mostly led by non-Iraqi Arabs, who treat Iraq as nothing but a battleground in which to wage war against both Shi'ites and "Crusader-Zionists" led by the United States. The Maliki government has decided that the only way to deal with such groups is to crush them.

Much more at the link, including discussion of Iraq's plan to gain support from it's Arab neighbors.

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Continue reading "Re: The Challenge "

Also, a greater sense of realism has set in among Iraqi political leaders. Sunni Arab leaders are realizing that nostalgia for their past dominance is not the basis for a realistic political strategy. Shia Arab leaders are coming to see that seeking vengeance against other groups for Saddam's crimes or attempting to exclude Sunni Arabs from playing a role in government is not a realistic option. Consequently, a growing understanding exists that reconciliation with most elements of the current armed opposition is both possible and essential for stabilizing Iraq, as evident from the fact that some insurgents have asked to be armed by the Iraqi government in order to fight the foreign terrorists.

As the Iraqi government and reconcilable insurgents come together, the question will arise of granting amnesty to those who have committed violent acts in the current conflict. Iraqi leaders understand that every war must end and that ending wars inevitably requires amnesties of some kind. A broad amnesty was issued at the end of the American Civil War. Many other recent internal conflicts have ended with broad pardons or amnesties. Recent examples include El Salvador, Sierra Leone, Mozambique, South Africa, Angola, and Indonesia. Afghanistan has implemented a process to allow all but a few former Taliban to renounce their past and to reintegrate into Afghan society.

I understand that some in the United States reacted negatively to the concept of granting amnesties. We will work with Iraqi leaders to find the right balance between reconciliation and accountability and to ensure that the sacrifices of those who died or were injured in the liberation of Iraq are honored. There will not be a double standard that grants amnesty to those who killed soldiers in the Coalition but not to those who killed Iraqis. The American people can rest assured on that point. The biggest honor for soldiers and civilians who sacrificed to end the threat from Saddam's regime and to liberate the Iraqi people is for the cause of a democratic Iraq to succeed and for those Iraqis who initially fought this change to accept the new order.

Get ready for amnesty, and given that it's part of a negotiation, be prepared to make concessions in how broad you think that amnesty should be. Furthermore, given that in America the loyal opposition will use this opportunity to bolster their "tough on national security" credibility (or just as part of the ongoing Bush is stupid/evil theme) you can bet that you'll be hearing a lot about the issue in the future - and most of what you hear will be wrong.

I'll stick with my comments from the last time the issue arose.

What exactly should the Iraqi's do? Should they track down each and every person who ever planted an IED, arrest them and provide a fair trial and execution? While I understand the impulse to "destroy the enemy"... I support a "defeat the enemy" tactic - and I'm quite certain victory won't be determined by who gets the last kill.

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Continue reading "No Hawks for South Korea "

The U.S. is thought to have rejected the request for fear that the core technology might be leaked. Some are known to be worried that confidential information collected on North Korea using the Global Hawk might be leaked to the North.

But look who the US is selling the system to:

The U.S. refusal to sell the Global Hawk has set back the South Korean's military's plan to introduce a high altitude UAV system until after 2010, and if the U.S. continually refuses, the whole system could fall apart.

The Defense Acquisition Program Administration said, While continuously requesting the U.S to sell us the Global Hawk, we are also developing a domestic mid-altitude UAV system. However, the mid-altitude UAV system development will be possibly completed around 2015. On the other hand, Japan received consent to buy the Global Hawk last June, and it has already secured budgets and commenced preparations to introduce the Global Hawk into its system.

It is becoming more and more apparent that South Korea's incompetent government is going to create the thing that they fear more than the North Korean threat and that is a fully militarized Japan. South Korea has only itself to blame for the beginning an arms race in northeast Asia and the normalization of Japanese military might with their coddling of North Korea and anti-American policies. It is quickly looking like the legacy of President Roh Moo-hyun of South Korea who leaves office next year, will be the beginning of the end of the US-ROK alliance which has brought the greatest prosperity and security the country has ever had, a belligerent and nuclear armed North Korea, and a rearmed and militarized Japan ready to conduct pre-emptive strikes on the peninsula. Quite a legacy indeed.

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