A Tale of a Trail of Bread Crumbs

But where, exactly, does it lead?

"Generals will always be the last ones to acknowledge the war is over, and the losing General (when there is one) usually gets to go first. This particular war is more complex because there is no opposing General."

Ramadi, May 08, 2007:

Mr. Uzzaman was transferred to Corregidor in late 2005. Mr. Chacka followed a couple of months later. They both found a base under such threat that it was completely engulfed in darkness at night. For good reason: It was smack dab in the middle of a war zone.

Rounds of fire from rocket-propelled guns struck guard towers. Tracer-fire criss-crossed the sky. U.S. warplanes bombed insurgent targets just outside the base. "All my guys were looking at me. They said: `What's happening? Where are we?'" Mr. Uzzaman said, recounting his first day there. So great was the mortar threat that until last month soldiers wore armoured jackets and helmets around the base.

There is more optimism about success among the battlefield soldiers than present with analysts in Baghdad. The sudden decrease in violence has left many units stunned that Iraqis who used to try to kill them are suddenly volunteering information about terrorists and landmines, and clamoring to join the joint security force. Usually those behind the desk are the optimists, the soldiers who die the pessimists. But instead there is genuine feeling on the front that after four frustrating years of ordeal, at last there are tangible signs of real, often radical improvement.

We've won the war.

In Fallujah, enlisted marines have complained to an officer of my acquaintance: "There's nobody to shoot here, sir. If it's just going to be building schools and hospitals, that's what the Army is for, isn't it?"

I'm not the only one feeling the boredom, on one of our patrols we paid 4 donkey cart drivers to race, the stipulation, one soldier on the back of each donkey cart. My donkey lost, it tried to kick it's driver.

So is this what we've been waiting for in Iraq? Or is this silence just the prelude to more attacks and violence? In Baqouba I can say that I think this peace will last, at least while my unit is here.

The war continues to abate in Iraq. Violence is still present, but, of course, Iraq was a relatively violent place long before Coalition forces moved in. I would go so far as to say that barring any major and unexpected developments (like an Israeli air strike on Iran and the retaliations that would follow), a fair-minded person could say with reasonable certainty that the war has ended. A new and better nation is growing legs. What's left is messy politics that likely will be punctuated by low-level violence and the occasional spectacular attack. Yet, the will of the Iraqi people has changed, and the Iraqi military has dramatically improved, so those spectacular attacks are diminishing along with the regular violence. Now it's time to rebuild the country, and create a pluralistic, stable and peaceful Iraq. That will be long, hard work. But by my estimation, the Iraq War is over. We won. Which means the Iraqi people won.

There's a reason Mike didn't realize until now that we had won the war, and it's a pretty good one. Mike likes to be where the fighting is, and throughout his last visit to Iraq there was fighting, and he could find it. This time last year he was reporting from Baqubah where intense battles were ongoing - but had he wanted he could have been telling the same stories from many other locations, especially the neighborhoods of Baghdad and points south that were then referred to as "the belts".

...from the perspective of the combat reporter, the war in Iraq is over. There will still be combat, but the odds of being embedded with the right unit at the right time have dropped from slim (as it was at best outside the early surge ops or the major city battles - unless you were willing to spend a significant amount of time with one unit) to none - or at least prohibitively long.

Independent reporter Michael Yon has spent more time in Iraq embedded with combat soldiers than any other journalist in the world, and a few days ago he boldly declared the war over...

I’m reluctant to say “the war has ended,” as he did, but everything else he wrote is undoubtedly true.

Him: “Can we leave now?”
Me: “No sir, the flight isn’t going to leave until later tonight. We need to bus you all to the landing zone after dinner.”
Him: “Well, can you just let us out at the gate? We’ll find our own way back.”
Me: “…..O.K…. how many of you Sunni leaders want to get left in the middle of Baghdad to find you’re way to Ramadi instead of flying with an armed escort?”
Him: “Oh we’ll all go and rent a couple of cars.”
Me turning to Gunny: “You know, I think this war is officially over.”

In case you needed any more on-the-ground evidence, the war as we knew it is over. Finished. Kaput. Yes, pockets of enemy activity still persist, but their cells are so fractured and hounded daily by us and the newly confident Iraqi Security Forces that these rogue elements are in full-on survival mode. We have resoundly kicked their tails and they know it.

I've always maintained that the Iraqis themselves will tell us when it's safe for us to talk about finally withdrawing, and now that is actually happening.

I said a year ago that we'd won - but I also have repeated since then that "we've won" doesn't mean the same thing as "it's over." You guys are starting to convince me that it's indeed over.

...the thing that kept me from saying "it's over" is simply the knowledge that the Iraqi security forces remained essentially untested. We Americans had demonstrated our ability and resolve to the point that the average Iraqi believed it - or at least knew they had something to gain from working with us - in spite of opposition in Iraq and America. But our Iraqi partners in uniform hadn't yet done the same. I don't fault them for this - too much had been expected of them by too many too soon. In spite of events in Basra, Diyala, Maysan, and Mosul this year I don't know if they're there yet. In fact, I know they aren't. (If nothing else, logistically.)

But I'm willing to accept that they are past a tipping point by which you guys (in Iraq) are willing to say "it's over" in much the same way we were far enough past one last year that I could confidently say "we've won."

We won, didn’t we?
<...>
It’s my birthday today.

I’m 34 now and I’ve come to realize something.

This war isn’t supposed to end.

The next stop was Ramadi, Anbar's capital and formerly the capital of the insurgency. Al Qaeda in Iraq fighters once openly controlled the streets here, while U.S. Marines said prayers every time they ventured beyond the fortified walls of their bases.

Now the Marines walk freely through the markets without body armor, though they try to keep a low profile because the province was handed over to Iraqi control last month.