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Mickey Kaus: McCain's Annoying Little Fraud.
A point worth examining, says I - so let's do so.I fought for the right strategy and more troops in Iraq, when it wasn't a popular thing to do. And when the pundits said my campaign was finished, I said I'd rather lose an election than see my country lose a war.This bit of history was repeated by the McCain campaign in at least one WaPo group interview I attended--suggesting it's an accepted talking point. It's also bogus. McCain's campaign imploded last summer because of his support for "comprehensive"immigration reform, including legalization of existing illegals (semi-amnesty).--McCain's acceptance speech, 9/4/08
But let's acknowledge one point up front: Conservative Republicans have never been "comfortable" with McCain - to put it mildly. Anyone who argues otherwise (and Kaus isn't) is motivated by something other than truth. There's a corrolary to that point that many folks on both sides of the aisle are loathe to acknowledge: Conservatives might still be the "base" of the Republican Party, but they aren't powerful enough to get everything their way - witness John McCain is the Republican nominee.
But in the summer months of the year before an election, it's the Base that's going to fund nascent campaigns - with donations that could be considered risky investment. They've got several campaigns to choose from, so if you're a candidate in need of funds you either appeal to the existing base, identify a developing one, or create your own. Insofar as fundraising goes, it's clear - because his campaign did hit financial rock bottom in the summer of '07 - that McCain did none of the above.
Which brings us back to why.
"At the time," Kaus says, "the Official MSM Story line centered on budgetary problems (still not Iraq!), but McCain himself admitted the truth to New Yorker's Ryan Lizza".
Checking that New Yorker piece reveals it's from December, 2007. This doesn't change anything McCain said therein, but I want to clarify any confusion that may arise from the separate "At the time" (summer, 2007) portion of Kaus' statement. Lots of water passed under the bridges of the Tigris and Potomac between those two points in time.
Back to summer. If there was an "official MSM Story line", Anna Marie Cox followed it (or developed it) in her July 02, 2007 Time report: Is John McCain's Candidacy Cooked? No why's, just an examination of financial dire straits, including this evidence: "In order to stay in the race, the McCain camp cut dozens of staff positions on Monday while many senior staffers took pay cuts." But for the record, there's nothing wrong with not providing reasons in an early story on any topic. Report "x" before deadline "y" knowing that first guessess are usually wrong and "obvious" assumptions frequently are, too. Over one year later any reasons could still be called arguable (see Kaus, Mickey).
But if there was an "official MSM Story line", Reuters, broke from it on July 10 2007: Top two aides quit McCain's 2008 campaign
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Republican John McCain's top two aides left his struggling U.S. presidential campaign on Tuesday, dealing a sharp blow to the Arizona senator and casting doubt on the future of his 2008 bid.Reuters cited two reasons for that in paragraph three...McCain said he would continue his White House run despite the departures of manager Terry Nelson and longtime chief strategist John Weaver, which were announced as McCain took the Senate floor to defend President George W. Bush's strategy in Iraq.
Once a front-runner in the Republican field, McCain has fallen behind as his staunch backing for Bush on the unpopular Iraq war and on an overhaul of immigration laws cost him support among both moderates and conservatives.But chose to emphasize the war and ignore immigration thereafter:
Tuesday's announcement came as McCain, who visited Iraq last week, reiterated his support for Bush's new war strategy and the Senate reopened debate on the issue.But three days later, official MSM Story line stalwart CNN didn't mention reasons in reporting the continued downhill slide: McCain campaign running out of money:While Democrats are pressing for a plan to withdraw troops and several Republicans have defected from Bush over the war, McCain said it would be a mistake to abandon Bush's strategy now.
"I believe that our military in cooperation with Iraqi security forces is making progress in a number of areas. In other areas they are not," McCain said. "This strategy is the correct one."
WASHINGTON (CNN) – CNN has learned the already-dire situation for Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign has actually gotten even worse, with two sources close to the candidate saying the campaign only has a paltry $250,000 left.But McCain hadn't yet hit bottom. Marc Ambinder, The Atlantic, July 16 2007: It's Official: McCain's Press Staff Resigns
Sen. John McCain's top three press aides resigned this morning, Republicans close to the campaign said and one of those aides confirmed.While Ambinder didn't mention Iraq or immigration in his piece, his comments section reveals some indication of the public discourse on the Iraq/immigration issues at the time. (Ron Paul supporters make a significant contribution - eagerly pointing out that their guy wants borders locked down and the US out of Iraq.)The campaign's research director and two other press staffers also stepped down.
That same morning, NPR's Morning Edition joined Reuters in veering from the "official MSM Story line": McCain Nearly Broke, but Stays Course
Sen. John McCain, the Republican from Arizona vying for the presidency, vows to remain in the race despite a campaign in disarray and nearly broke.NPR emphasized Iraq...
At the American Legion hall in Claremont, New Hampshire more than 100 people showed up around 8:30 a.m. Frank Fahey was among them....but:"I'm here to see if he can resurrect his campaign because I certainly want to be with a winner," Fahey said.
Winning seems like a dream for McCain as his campaign sinks in the polls and hemorrhages staff. He'll launch a bare-bones insurgent effort, traveling the state on his Straight Talk Express bus and numerous holding town hall meetings.
That approach worked for his campaign in 2000, but whether it can holdup now will depend on him.
"I don't think it's the same John McCain that we saw back in 2000," said Fahey, who has a lot of new questions for McCain.
When Fahey gets the chance, he addresses McCain pointedly: "Senator, there is no question you are an American hero; I voted for you the last time around. However, there's a perception created that you have become too close to President Bush and you have supported him too often."
"I should have called on your wife," McCain quipped, drawing laughter.
"Now as far as how close I am to Bush," he continued, "one of life's great ironies for me is that I was the vociferous critic of the way the war (in Iraq) was being conducted. I gave several speeches saying if we don't change what we're doing we're going to have a disaster. And so now I'm the guy who's responsible? 'Life is unfair,' as (former President) Jack Kennedy said."
McCain did call for the resignation of former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld 3 ½ years ago. But that's been buried under the headlines about McCain's ardent defense of the war.
Another question was about the widespread perception that his campaign was over.
McCain, who spent five years as a prisoner of war, said he had no doubts he could recover.
"I've had tough times in my life. This is day at the beach compared to some other others. We're going to be fine," he said.
NPR: Even more than the fundraising problems, it is McCain's views that have put him in this situation. He readily acknowledges his position on Iraq cost him support among Independents and his position on immigration cost him with Republicans.Which (sans McCain's acknowledgement) is pretty close to Reuters more vague claim a few days earlier: "McCain has fallen behind as his staunch backing for Bush on the unpopular Iraq war and on an overhaul of immigration laws cost him support among both moderates and conservatives."
That summer, the war may have been costing McCain support among nervous conservatives who were anxiously trying to find some other national security issue they could be tough on (enter "border security") in case Iraq collapsed - and arguably overall was costing him "independents" (it gained him some of both, too - Americans are like that). But by December the war issue was less an albatross around his neck as violence levels fell - and "immigration reform" - for multiple reasons, was on the way out as an election issue.
But if by December the war wasn't costing McCain support...
Instead of trying to run a by-the-numbers conservative campaign, he is emphasizing issues on which he has taken what he believes to be principled but unpopular positions. He is the only one in the Republican field who seems eager to talk about Iraq. “My friends, here’s the news,” he told a small crowd in Seneca, South Carolina, a few days after returning from Thanksgiving with the troops. “We are winning in Iraq. We are winning in Iraq. We are winning in Iraq.”That's from the lengthy New Yorker piece cited by Kaus as proof that McCain's "I'd rather lose an election than see my country lose a war" quote is 'bogus'. So contra Kaus, we see that in December McCain thought - rightly or wrongly - that his Iraq position was principled but unpopular. As for any claim that he believed immigration alone was responsible for his summer financial woes, that can only be drawn from this partial (unusually edited and out of context) quote in the same piece:
"It was immigration" that hurt his campaign, he said when he continued, after a series of apologies on both sides. "I understand that. I was told by one of the pollsters, 'We see real bleeding.' "At this point one thing should be clear - there is no valid argument that the MSM attributed McCain's problems to "financial woes" without addressing cause - during the summer or afterwards. Likewise McCain acknowledges both of the oft-cited reasons for those financial woes. But McCain's "base" in the Republican Party has always been the moderate wing of the Party - not the "Conservative Base" that up until 2008 was assumed to be required for a Republican to capture a Presidential nod. McCain never appealed to that base. His position on immigration was one of many reasons for that, and his position on Iraq - even if they found it appealing - could not completely overcome that in the Primaries. Many were willing to "hold their nose and vote McCain" in the General, but only the selection of Sarah Palin cemented their support. Has that been forgotten already?
Meanwhile, as both Reuters and NPR acknowledged last summer, and as conventional wisdom indicates is true - his unswerving support for HIS TROOP SURGE (because he was far ahead of Bush on that one) cost him support from HIS base - the moderates in the Republican Party and independent voters, too. Folks can argue now that "the surge has succeeded in ways that nobody anticipated” or "it’s succeeded beyond our wildest dreams” or even "we knew all along our guys could get 'er done!" but among this year's remaining Presidential candidates only that middle statement is true - unless you're John McCain.
