Mookie's Bad Month

Sadr Studies 101 - from The AP:

BAGHDAD — Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice mocked anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr as a coward on Sunday, hours after the radical leader threatened to declare war unless U.S. and Iraqi forces end a military crackdown on his followers.

Rice, in the Iraqi capital to tout security gains and what she calls an emerging political consensus, said al-Sadr is content to issue threats and edicts from the safety of Iran, where he is studying. Al-Sadr heads an unruly militia that was the main target of an Iraqi government assault in the oil-rich city of Basra last month, and his future role as a spoiler is an open question.

"I know he's sitting in Iran," Rice said dismissively, when asked about al-Sadr's latest threat to lift a self-imposed cease-fire with government and U.S. forces. "I guess it's all-out war for anybody but him," Rice said. "I guess that's the message; his followers can go too their deaths and he's in Iran."

In fairness, there's no quote from Secretary Rice using the word "coward" - so that first line might be editorial interpretation by the AP.

I find this quote from the above excerpt interesting: "Al-Sadr heads an unruly militia that was the main target of an Iraqi government assault in the oil-rich city of Basra last month" because from what I hear, Sadr is having a bad month this month, too, as this LA Times story makes clear:

Like Basra, with its oil, whoever controls Najaf will play a major role in charting Iraq's future. It is here Shiite politicians come for guidance from the grand ayatollahs. It is here the populist Sadr first challenged Iraq's conservative religious establishment.

"Najaf is the kitchen, where major decisions are cooked," said Salah Obeidi, Sadr's official spokesman.

Obeidi works out of a barren room in a closed-down restaurant and hotel. Bodyguards sit in the lobby, decorated with a mural of Sadr and long-haired Shiite saints gazing austerely at Najaf's roads. Obeidi confesses he has been in crisis mode lately.

"We are afraid the situation from now till October won't be stable for the Sadrists," Obeidi said. "Najaf is very important."
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This time, the grand ayatollahs have declined to aid the incendiary cleric.

Three days into the Basra campaign, Grand Ayatollah Najafi issued a fatwa, or religious opinion or edict, that declared the Iraqi government as the only force in the country with the right to bear arms.

His son, Sheik Ali Najafi, left little doubt that the clergy had backed the Iraqi army operations.

"We see this as a positive improvement. . . . The people want the government to control the streets and the law to be enforced. No other groups," he said, sitting in his study, furnished with cushions, a laptop and a clock bearing his father's portrait.

The poisonous atmosphere of treachery and paranoia has consequences far beyond the alleyways of this ancient shrine city.

Najaf may hold the key to Iraq's stability; if it descends into violence, the entire Shiite south will almost certainly follow suit. U.S. forces will be stretched, the chances of a troop drawdown diminished. The Shiite parties involved will probably look to Iran to broker an end to the crisis. And chances for real political process will be on hold.

Meanwhile, farther south, where the AP said "Al-Sadr heads an unruly militia that was the main target of an Iraqi government assault in the oil-rich city of Basra last month", "Iraqi soldiers took control of the last bastions of the cleric Moktada al-Sadr’s militia in Basra on Saturday." Odd, that.

And last week:

Basra residents welcome Iraq army crackdown

BASRA, Iraq (AFP) — Three weeks after Iraqi troops swarmed into the southern city of Basra to take on armed militiamen who had overrun the streets, many residents say they feel safer and that their lives have improved.

The fierce fighting which marked the first week of Operation Sawlat al-Fursan (Charge of the Knights) has given way to slower, more focused house-by-house searches by Iraqi troops, which led on Monday to the freeing of an abducted British journalist.

Residents say the streets have been cleared of gunmen, markets have reopened, basic services have been resumed and a measure of normality has returned to the oil-rich city.

Battle to retake Basra was 'complete disaster'

The British-trained Iraqi Army's attempt to retake Basra from militiamen was an "unmitigated disaster at every level", British commanders have disclosed.