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The Mudville Gazette is written and produced by Greyhawk, the call sign of a real military guy currently serving somewhere in Iraq. Unless otherwise credited, the opinions expressed are those of the author, and nothing here is to be taken as representing the official position of or endorsement by the United States Department of Defense or any of its subordinate components. Furthermore, I will occasionally use satire or parody herein. The bottom line: it's my house.

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March 16, 2008

Trendy

Greyhawk

Here's the definition of trend from Merriam-Webster online: "to show a tendency"

Seems pretty simple to me. I think we can expand it thusly: Something that increases with time demonstrates an upward trend, something that decreases over time demonstrates a downward trend.

To double check myself on this, I checked the definition of trend at dictionary.com: "to have a general tendency, as events, conditions, etc."

Hopefully in spite of the different wording between the two sources there's no complexity to this issue. I checked a second definition because I wanted to be meticulous, but I think both definitions and my expansion are accurate.

Coincidentally, meticulous is today's "word of the day" at Merriam-Webster online: meticulous • \muh-TIK-yuh-lus\ • adjective: marked by extreme or excessive care in the consideration or treatment of details

Hmmm... perhaps I used the wrong term - I don't think the 30 seconds spent checking a second source was "extreme" or "excessive". But I digress...

Here are graphs of Iraqi civilian and US military casualties in Iraq, from the Brookings Institute's Iraq Index

milcasualties.JPG

civcasualties.JPG

I believe I can spot some trends in these charts. Overall I see distinct upward trends through 2006 (and in the example of US military deaths continuing through June, 2007), where a peak seems to be reached beyond which the trend is downward. One can argue causes for these forever, but I don't think one can effectively argue the existence of the trends.

Unless one writes for Reuters:

Attacks across Iraq have fallen by 60 percent since last June, when extra troops were fully deployed. There has been a fall in violence since January but U.S. commanders in Iraq say this does not represent a trend.
I should point out that Reuters is talking about "attacks" here - and while they may be down 60% the fatalities (as depicted in the above graphs) are down considerably more. Regardless, I believe I see a trend.

To be fair, the anonymous Reuters "reporter" (the story is sourced to the agency's "Baghdad newsroom") is not claiming there is no trend where a trend is obvious, she or he is merely claiming that "U.S. commanders in Iraq" are claiming this. However, the lack of an actual quote from a named source makes me think the Reuters "Baghdad newsroom" can't be accused of being meticulous (at the least) based on this account. (See a similar story here.)

In another remarkable coincidence, today's "word of the day" at dictionary.com is chagrin: chagrin \shuh-GRIN\, noun: Acute vexation, annoyance, or embarrassment, arising from disappointment or failure. transitive verb: To unsettle or vex by disappointment or humiliation; to mortify.

Allow me to use it in a sentence: "Reuters will experience absolutely no chagrin over this episode."

*****

I entered the word "trend" in Mudville's search window to see what would come up. (Okay, full disclosure: I knew exactly what I was looking for). In an amazing coincidence, I found this story from mid October of 2007 (did you notice I put mid October of 2007 in bold face? That's because I want you to remember that this is from mid October of 2007 for just a little while):

CHARLES GIBSON, ABC ANCHOR: The U.S. military reports the fourth straight month of decline in troop deaths, 66 American troops died in September, each a terrible tragedy for a family, but the number far less than those who died in August. And the Iraqi government says civilian deaths across Iraq fell by half last month.

KURTZ: Joining us now to put this into perspective, Robin Wright, who covers national security for The Washington Post. And CNN Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr.

Robin Wright, should that decline in Iraq casualties have gotten more media attention?

ROBIN WRIGHT, THE WASHINGTON POST: Not necessarily. The fact is we're at the beginning of a trend -- and it's not even sure that it is a trend yet. There is also an enormous dispute over how to count the numbers. There are different kinds of deaths in Iraq.
<...>
KURTZ: Barbara Starr, CNN did mostly quick reads by anchors of these numbers. There was a taped report on "LOU DOBBS TONIGHT." Do you think this story deserved more attention? We don't know whether it is a trend or not but those are intriguing numbers.

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: But that's the problem, we don't know whether it is a trend about specifically the decline in the number of U.S. troops being killed in Iraq. This is not enduring progress.
<...>
KURTZ: But let's say that the figures had shown that casualties were going up for U.S. soldiers and going up for Iraqi civilians. I think that would have made some front pages.

STARR: Oh, I think inevitably it would have. I mean, that's certainly -- that, by any definition, is news.

And there you have it - by definition some things are "news" and some things are "not". So for a final search for trends let's return from mid-October to current "news":
According to the News Content Index conducted by the Project for Excellence in Journalism, the percentage of news stories devoted to the war has sharply declined since last year, dropping from an average of 15% of the newshole in July to just 3% in February.

As news coverage of the war has diminished, so too has public interest in news about Iraq. According to Pew's News Interest Index survey, Iraq was the public's most closely followed news story in all but five weeks during the first half of 2007; however, it was a much less dominant story between July 2007 and February 2008. Notably, the Iraq war has not been the public's top weekly story since mid-October.

(Did you notice I put "mid October" in bold face type again?)

Anyhow, here's a graph from Pew:

newstrends.gif

Does anyone see a downward trend here?

Posted by Greyhawk at 04:41 PM | Permalink | Comments (43) |