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If the 2006 U.S. elections were a "referendum on Iraq" - who won? "The Democrats" of course - that's an easy answer. But here we've always asked the tough questions, and the full answer to that one isn't so obvious.
Remember the 2004 U.S. elections? For President, of course, but also the same number of House and Senate seats as this year's. In the run up, all the talk was of Iraq, Iraq, and Iraq. Everyone knew the election was about Iraq.
Then an odd thing happened - post-Republican victory news stories revealed that most voters were concerned with "values" and "morals" - it wasn't about Iraq at all!
The same thing happened in Australia, of course (and was ignored by American media who were busy declaring that the pending U.S. election would be about Iraq). Then one year later, Iraq would be cited as part of the reason for the loss of some seats for Tony Blair's Labour party in the British elections, but generally ignored in consideration of the fact that by the (indirect) will of the electorate, Blair was still Prime Minister.
Now fast forward to today, where post-voting polls have determined that Iraq actually was in fourth place among voter's concerns - with barely over a third declaring Iraq an extremely important issue.
The exit polls showed that 42 percent of voters called corruption an extremely important issue in their choices at the polls, followed by terrorism at 40 percent, the economy at 39 percent and the war in Iraq at 37 percent.So of course, as in 2004 in America and Australia, and 2005 in Britain, headlines are downplaying the significance of Iraq on the latest elections, right?
Of course not - 2006 has been declared "a referendum on Iraq" - apparently the first in history of the English speaking world*. Whether the media (or pundits) liked the results or not, Iraq was an issue then, and still is today. But now that referendum has passed, Americans have spoken, and we'd better listen to what exactly they said.
By the numbers (per CNN):
Nationally, 57 percent of voters said they disapproved of the war in Iraq, while only 41 percent approved.And the AP (perhaps citing the same exit polls, of course) reported similar results:
Polls of voters found a strong majority - about six in 10 - disapproved of the war in Iraq.But as with "values" "morals" and "corruption", that "disapproved" is open to interpretation. Fortunately, the AP adds some (limited clarity):
About a fourth of those polled said they sided with Democrats on wanting to withdraw some troops from Iraq and another three in 10 said they want all troops withdrawn.I said "limited" clarity because assuming no overlap among those two groups (if the word "another" is used correctly above), these numbers imply a third group of Americans - and at 45% they are larger than either of the other two - who want no troops brought home. But since the AP isn't talking about them, we'll turn our attention to the other two.
I'm not aware of the Democrats plan to withdraw "some" troops - and a bit concerned with exactly how that would work, how few would remain, and exactly who they would be, but let's just accept that if the AP reports it, it must be so. But seventy five percent of Americans oppose it, it would result in a bloodbath, and much of that blood would be American.
Let's turn to an option that is more feasible - all troops withdrawn. Bloodbath again, but less American blood, and seventy percent of Americans oppose it. Can a closely split House and an evenly divided Senate (let's not pretend Joe Lieberman is a Democrat on this issue) go against the majority of Americans (and a President with veto power) and make it happen?
For the record, let me admit that I'm an American who wants all the troops brought home - when we're done with our task. And I don't "approve" of any war any where, though I'm willing to participate in the one we're in. Am I the only such American?
By the way, those numbers also imply that some of those 60 percent of Americans who disapprove of the war in Iraq don't want the troops brought home - at least not precipitously.
More on that group shortly. This entry will close with a review of "groups of voters" as determined by exit polls, in diminishing order of size:
60% disapprove of the war in Iraq
45% don't want any troops brought home
40% approve of the war
37% consider Iraq an "extremely important issue"
30% want all troops brought home
25% "agree with the Democrats plan" (per the AP) to bring some troops home
Notes:
*Recall that previous election losses by Italian and Spanish leaders were blamed on Iraq.
