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The Mudville Gazette is written and produced by Greyhawk, the call sign of a real military guy currently serving somewhere in Iraq. Unless otherwise credited, the opinions expressed are those of the author, and nothing here is to be taken as representing the official position of or endorsement by the United States Department of Defense or any of its subordinate components. Furthermore, I will occasionally use satire or parody herein. The bottom line: it's my house.

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July 17, 2006

Status of Forces

Greyhawk

A look at Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, who "is believed to lead a force of about 5,000, backed by around 12,000 short- and medium-range rockets" in southern Lebanon.

On Saturday he issued a statement saying to Israel, "You wanted an open war and we are ready for an open war."

Whether that was bluster remains to be seen. What's clear is that he is south Lebanon's unquestioned ruler, and answers to no one else in Lebanon.

On the walls of his Beirut headquarters -- at least until they were destroyed in an Israeli air strike on Saturday -- two oversized photographs hint at his real allegiances. The portraits were of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameini, and predecessor, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

There was not a Lebanese flag in sight.

More background here:
Hezbollah clearly made a decision in favour of fighting over a political role, and felt confident it was strong enough for the fight it knew it was starting.

Israel says that's because Iran has been feeding the guerrilla arsenal with beefed-up rockets, even sending 100 members of its elite Revolutionary Guards to help launch them, a claim Nasrallah denied yesterday.

Hezbollah, which was founded in 1982 after Iran's Revolutionary Guards were sent to Lebanon during Israel's invasion of the country, is thought to receive between $10 million to $20 million US a month from Iran, and its fighters regularly go there for training.

But Iranian fighters have not been seen in Lebanon in the last 15 years.

Already the new fighting has deepened divisions in Lebanon, mostly along sectarian lines.

The country's 1.2 million Shiites largely support Hezbollah, while Sunnis, Christians and Druse mostly oppose it.

Lebanon's army of about 70,000 soldiers far outnumbers Hezbollah's estimated 6,000 fighters.

The deployment - or lack thereof - of the Lebanese Army will be an indicator of "rising tensions" (for want of a better term). Lebanon will have to draw a line somewhere, but I expect they'll remain well north of the action - effectively making Lebanon militarily "neutral" (also for want of a better term) in the conflict. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that some sort of communication on that topic between the governments of Israel and Lebanon has already occurred.

But at least for a few more days (after which international pressure will be brought to bear on the Israelis) Israel will be calling the shots - regardless of bluster from Hezbollah. If they are serious about a long and painful campaign, what they've done so far is simply "shape the battlespace" - creating a battleground on which they plan to win, under conditions as advantageous to their goals as possible.

One thing you can be sure of - Israel has no plan to rebuild Lebanon. Once this conflict is over - or placed on temporary hold - the international community will have an opportunity to achieve some real results in Lebanon. (Or a huge mess to clean up, whichever you prefer.) Iran and Syria will certainly do it if no one else will.

Update: More on shaping the battlespace here. John's "endstate" is accurate in terms of a combat phase - but the ultimate endstate is post-combat, when that international community (UN? Syria/Iran?) rebuilds. That's assuming Israel 1) does intend to eliminate Hezbollah as a force in the region and isn't simply "sending a message" (and as noted above they are operating under an as-yet undetermined time limit here) and 2) doesn't plan on a decades-long occupation of southern Lebanon, a prospect which is only unreasonable if enough nations are willing to take advantage of a real opportunity to secure Lebanon. There is a fragile opportunity here for Lebanon's (and the wider region's) future. I imagine there is an endstate that is agreeable to Israel and Lebanon, and in the best interest of the world. Hopefully it won't be used as a bargaining chip for other issues involving Syria and Iran, who will do their best to obstruct any efforts towards that goal.

Yes, there's also the "total war" possibility, involving years of combat throughout the region, that many think inevitable or even desirable. (Choose your reason. On the right: "Time to kill them all and let God sort them out", on the left: "This proves Bush's foreign policy is a failure", and from the media: "Wow, this stuff sells newspapers!!!!") But we ain't there yet.

Posted by Greyhawk at 08:28 AM | Permalink | Comments (43) |