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There's always grim news from Iraq - as the latest Iraq Index from the Brookings Institute confirms.
The number of daily attacks by insurgents trends upwards:
As do the numbers of multiple fatality bombings:
These statistics will be cited by some to support claims of a "growing insurgency". Others will counter that the terrorist attacks are confined to a very few provinces in Iraq:
But few will note one of the key results of those acts of terror:
As complete independence appears tantalizingly closer the people of Iraq grow increasingly angry at those who use terror to end that dream and prolong their agony. As more Iraqi forces replace Americans, expect to see those numbers presented in the final chart climb even higher. This is how the "insurgency" will be defeated.
And consider what tale the attack numbers also tell. A real count of terrorist fighters in Iraq, if such a thing were possible, would likely reveal their numbers are small - perhaps a few thousand - and their organization above small "squad level" non-existent. Al Qaeda in Iraq, probably the most formidable component of a fractious opposition, can accomplish little beyond sporadic (admittedly sometimes spectacular) violence. Their most "successful" attacks involve suicide bombers creating large numbers of casualties - and larger numbers of enemies to their cause. And the majority of their most "highly coordinated" suicide attacks fail, insofar as the attackers invariably die short of their goals.
They have succeeded in slowing progress in part of the country, but elsewhere they are non-entities. As prosperity fattens the pocketbooks of the Kurds in northern Iraq those in the south will notice; they will know why they lack the same, and have more reason to despise those who send human bombs into their markets.
I've been to Iraq - I've seen vulnerabilities. I know what an organized group numbering in the tens of thousands could do. That such things haven't happened can't be attributed to fear or reluctance on the part of the proven suicidal opponent in Iraq. They simply lack the numbers to carry out any truly effective tactical strike.
But a small but violent insurgency will always be able to replenish it's ranks - the presence of the foreign invader will always be sufficient incentive to attract at least enough fanatics to assure the numbers in the first two charts will be maintained. The tipping point in the war in Iraq will not come from killing off insurgents - it will be achieved by replacing the Americans who are killing them with Iraqi forces capable of doing the same.
Outstanding post Greyhawk. Once again you provide info that cannot be found (or is spun or ignored),in the MSM.Posted by Buckley F. Williams at November 5, 2005 10:31 PM
I still remember when Pravda's O'Leilly would go batsh!t at the use of the word "insurgency." But I guess being the most powerful a-hole on TV means never having to say you're sorry.Posted by Wilson Kolb at November 5, 2005 11:04 PM
Thank you Grayhawk.And I agree about replacing the Americans as we can by Iraqi forces.Posted by Wild Thing at November 6, 2005 03:44 AM
Good post and commentary about significant trends in Iraq.Posted by Dave Dilegge at November 6, 2005 01:40 PM
Yes outstanding piece of work. During the first days after the war, those terrorists were considered freedom fighters among us. They were somehow tolerated, and loved by some. Since they attacked foreign troops. But then they began attacking the Iraqi polic, National Guards. And more even randomlay attacking civilian gatherings, in markets and other places where people would gather. Each one of these attacks killing so much of Iraqis in random, children, women and men died in them for no reason. Most Iraqis now have at leas on distant relative that has been killed from terror attacks. People are realy getting tired of them, more and more joining the Iraqi National Guard and Police forces to somehow help get rid of them.Posted by Hassan Kharrufa at November 6, 2005 02:53 PM
Thanks Grayhawk. Great information that we "at home" people never see. I appreciate the hard work you do to inform us.Posted by Grann;ylu at November 6, 2005 06:36 PM
Thanks, Greyhawk, for the tether to the reality of the situation and not what the doomsayers and the MSM would have us believe...Posted by Some Soldier's Mom & the DH at November 6, 2005 10:54 PM
Thanks Greyhawk, as usual a great post.
As to Wilson (Willy), after seeing him get spanked over and over again I'm starting to think that he is a shill being used to show the idiocy of the left wing view.
Greyhawk, do you have any current or recent (within the last ten years) connections to any officeholders? By connections I don't mean as a contributor to campaigns, but rather as a paid or unpaid staffer to campaigns, or as an employee of an officeholder? Or as a paid or unpaid consultant or employee of any organization involved in electioneering or lobbying of any kind?
SSG_K, the same goes for you. Same questions.
As for me, the answer is "No." I want to know whether the two of you are independent, or whether your website and/or participation here are part of a larger effort.Posted by Wilson Kolb at November 7, 2005 03:29 AM
No. The closest association I have had with a public official was having my picture taken with the President when he visited Baghdad at thanksgiving. Of course with everyone there it was somewhat difficult to plot out a vast right wing conspiracy with him. As to my suspicions of you being a shill I was suggesting somewhat frivously that Greyhawk was running an "Enders Game" with a fake but very believable liberal wacko setting Greyhawk and other posters up to consistently swat the ball out of the park. Having seen the indignation of pink sheep being told that they are pink sheep I have no doubt that you are exactly what you represent yourself to be.
I do kind of miss Bambi though...Posted by SSG_K at November 7, 2005 06:13 AM
If you're reading the Brookings report, you'd probably be interested in this: http://www.opinionatedbastard.com/archives/000598.html
and this:Pierce Wetter at November 7, 2005 06:35 AM
Let's see if Greyhawk will answer the question now.Posted by Wilson Kolb at November 7, 2005 05:14 PM
Where can I follow up for more informationPosted by spanked at November 12, 2005 04:14 PM Hide Comments | Show/Add Comments in Popup Window(13) | (Note: You must refresh main page to view newly posted comments here)