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See previous entry in our "Hurricane Exercise" here. For exercise purposes, twelve hours have passed between that installment and this one. Here's the latest bulletin from the National Hurricane Center on "Hurricane Mary":
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALLYou are in charge of a city in Florida - what would you do? You are in charge of a Parrish in Louisiana - what would you do? You are governor of one of those states, or Mississippi, or President of the United States, how should you respond?
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARY ADVISORY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
...DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE MARY CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.
AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST IS CANCELLED SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH...AND FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN.
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI.
MARY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF MARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES MARY A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL...AND MARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH MARY MAY OCCUR AS FAR AS 150 TO 175 MILES INLAND ALONG THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 14 TO 17 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MARY CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY. STORM SURGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ALONG THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.MARY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI NORTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE MARY MAKES LANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS...AS WELL AS OVER CUBA.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER ALL OF THE STATE OF FLORIDA EXCEPT THE FLORIDA KEYS.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...26.6 N... 85.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 941 MB.
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM EDT AND 3 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.
By the way, the teams from 47 diferent broadcast and cable news outlets are setting up shop on the coast near your town and beginning to provide near hysterical coverage of events. They intend to stay, but are describing on air at great length those "dangerous battering waves" and the flooding described in the Hurricane Center's bulletin.
Three hours later, the updated Hurricane Center bulletin now refers to "extremely dangerous Hurricane Mary", and declares that the storm is indeed now cat 4.
Although the majority have done so, a large number of people have refused (or are unable) to evacuate your town. Landfall could occur within 12-18 hours.
Update: Part IV is here.
