Blood Moon Rising

The moon was eclipsed over Baghdad in the pre-dawn hours this morning. Just prior to setting the disk was completely in shadow, an awesome sight low above the horizon. We knew it would happen, of course, absolutely inevitable and completely predictable, astronomy having come a long way from the earliest days... here in the cradle of civilization.

That full moon marks the mid-point of Ramadan. For all the talk of violence and pre-election attacks the month has been relatively quiet. Certainly not without incident, but nothing like the worst that so many expected. We're half way through the month, so there's another way to look at the situation: there are still a few weeks to go.

But from all indications, this is the key question that should be asked:

"How badly have we crushed the "insurgency"?" If the New York Times is to be believed, the insurgents have some share (if not all) of 380 tons (or if you prefer ABC, 3 tons) of high explosives at their disposal, and have had for over a year and a half. In all that time they have killed a number of captives and certainly captivated a sizable platoon of news reporters but accomplished absolutely nothing in the grand sweep of history.

Now in reality none but the dullest would imagine for a minute these people have 380 tons of high explosive at their disposal, else why are they being ground up in the wheels of the great machine?

And the coalition strategy over the past weeks may prove to be not just decisive, but a textbook example for dealing with such situations. Here's what's coming together, lining up as surely as the Sun, Moon, and Earth to bring an eclipse to the "insurgency":

1. A treaty with Sadr - brought about by overwhelming victory in Najaf and the resulting loss of hope on his part for gaining the support of the population - leading to less concentration of military assets in the Sadr City area of Baghdad.

2. A hugely successful "practice run" in the city of Samarra includes U.S. and Iraqi troops in a coordinated effort, destroying an organized and entrenched opposition.

3. Our British allies agree to move large numbers of troops northward, further freeing American GIs to turn their attention elsewhere. (Side note: this story is largely ignored in the American media, but a big story in Britain where the press is free to state the obvious: any coalition victory is a loss for the Kerry campaign in America. The story there is spun as Blair risking British boys to help buddy Bush but regardless of motive the result is devastating to the insurgents – their American allies are merely collateral damage).

All signs point to go time, and the target is Fallujah. It's not hard to imagine this scenario: all over the country the remnants of the failed insurgency (predominantly regime loyalists with no future and Syrians with less) are crawling to Fallujah, the beacon of death in the desert for their cause. And that death is coming, and all involved know it. If you need any more proof, look at the spin the New York Times has begun to apply in this piece from Edward Wong:

RAMADI, Iraq, Oct. 21 - The American military and the interim Iraqi government are quickly losing control of this provincial capital, which is larger and strategically more important than its sister city of Falluja, say local officials, clerics, tribal sheiks and officers with the United States Marines.

"The city is chaotic," said Sheik Ali al-Dulaimi, a leader of the region's largest tribe. "There's no presence of the Allawi government," he added, speaking of Prime Minister Ayad Allawi.

While Ramadi is not exactly a "no go" zone for the marines, like the insurgent stronghold of Falluja 30 miles to the east, officers say it is fast slipping in that direction.

So see? If Fallujah falls then Ramadi is the real important city and we've lost it.

But the truth is Ramadi's turn will come too. And if you believe differently then you too could be Wong...

But for now its Fallujah that draws the flies home. And from all over the country they are moving, crawling to Fallujah, joining together for an orgy of death, a result as certain as the dawn of a new day in a newly freed nation - the inevitable end of the night.

We may see some brief flicker of the insurgent flame yet, some last-ditch effort before Tuesday. If so it would be a good time to remember this: immediately after Al Qaeda castrated Spain with a few well-placed bombs the organization released a tape claiming the victory. That tape included this phrase: "You love life and we love death,." Anyone who ever served in the US Armed Forces knew the instant response to that, heard George C. Scott quote Patton, establishing the obvious common ground between American Forces and Al Qaeda corpses: "Your job is not to die for your country. Your job is to make the other poor bastard die for his country".

"You Love life, we love death"

The Marines will bring the love to Fallujah.

Oh, and speaking of Spain,