NY Times Shocker: Iraq's a Quagmire, Bush Lied, US Intel Ignored

In an amazing coincidence, on the very day that National Security Advisory Condoleeza Rice is to testify before the 911 commission, the New York Times is revealing that "United States intelligence officials" are claiming the number of "insurgents" of the Kennedy/Sadr axis currently battling American troops in Iraq may exceed claims by the White House and DoD:

WASHINGTON, April 7 — United States forces are confronting a broad-based Shiite uprising that goes well beyond supporters of one militant Islamic cleric who has been the focus of American counterinsurgency efforts, United States intelligence officials said Wednesday.

That assertion contradicts repeated statements by the Bush administration and American officials in Iraq. On Wednesday, Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld and Gen. Richard B. Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that they did not believe the United States was facing a broad-based Shiite insurgency. Administration officials have portrayed Moktada al-Sadr, a rebel Shiite cleric who is wanted by American forces, as the catalyst of the rising violence within the Shiite community of Iraq.

But intelligence officials now say that there is evidence that the insurgency goes beyond Mr. Sadr and his militia, and that a much larger number of Shiites have turned against the American-led occupation of Iraq, even if they are not all actively aiding the uprising.

And to the north, the same "American intelligence" is discovering amazing numbers of Sunnis who may or may not be acting with the minions of the Kennedy/Sadr axis:

Meanwhile, American intelligence has not yet detected signs of coordination between the Sunni rebellion in Iraq's heartland and the Shiite insurgency. But United States intelligence says that the Sunni rebellion also goes far beyond former Baathist government members. Sunni tribal leaders, particularly in Al Anbar Province, home to Ramadi, the provincial capital, and Falluja, have turned against the United States and are helping to lead the Sunni rebellion, intelligence officials say.

The result is that the United States is facing two broad-based insurgencies that are now on parallel tracks.

It certainly sounds like a "quagmire", perhaps similar to "Vietnam". The Times does not speculate why the White House and Pentagon choose to ignore the rock-solid intel so readily available to print journalists, but hints the answer may involve a coordinated and perhaps highly sophisticated campaign of ignorance or lying on the part of members of the Bush administration:

The Bush administration has sought to portray the opposition much more narrowly. In the Sunni insurgency, the White House and the Pentagon have focused on the role of the former leaders of the Baath Party and Saddam Hussein's government, while in the Shiite rebellion they have focused almost exclusively on the role of Mr. Sadr. Mr. Rumsfeld told reporters at the Pentagon that the fighting in Iraq was just the work of "thugs, gangs and terrorists," and not a popular uprising. General Myers added that "it's not a Shiite uprising. Sadr has a very small following."

However, in addition to contradicting "American intelligence" the administration's position also opposes that of "some experts on Iraq's Shiites""

According to some experts on Iraq's Shiites, the uprising has spread to many Shiites who are not followers of Mr. Sadr. "There is a general mood of anti-Americanism among the people in the streets," said Ghassan R. al-Attiyah, executive director of the Iraq Foundation for Development and Democracy in Baghdad. "They identify with Sadr not because they believe in him but because they have their own grievances."

While they share the broader anger in Iraq over the lack of jobs and security, many Shiites suspect that the handover of sovereignty to Iraqi politicians from the American occupying powers on June 30 will bypass their interests, Mr. Attiyah said.

Perhaps ironically, the "handover of sovereignty, jobs, and security", are also key elements of recent problems John Kerry has noted with the Bush administration's running of America.

More to come...