"Failed Intel" and the WMDs

Memefighter week continues:

Congressional and CIA investigations into the prewar intelligence on Iraq's weapons and links to terrorism have found no evidence that CIA analysts colored their judgment because of perceived or actual political pressure from White House officials, according to intelligence officials and congressional officials from both parties.

And of course there's this to consider too.

I actually expressed my opinion on the "failed intel" aspect of the Iraq war buildup in a Democracy Whiskey Sexy? chapter, (although some reading between lines would be in order):

It's the weather and intel part that throws the degree of uncertainty into operations. Those in the know understand this uncertainty is there. Decisions, nonetheless, must be made. This is a responsibility of command, this is "why they get the big bucks". No one anywhere expects a perpetual one-hundred percent accuracy from the weather forecast. It's guidance, and anyone with a vague grasp of chaos theory knows a small part of the things that can go wrong.

The degree of uncertainty vanishes only in hindsight. A weather forecast, like intelligence analysis, is not "bad" before the fact. It is a known best guess. An attempt is made to bridge a chasm of ignorance with as many facts as possible, but rarely if ever, is that bridge complete. Usually a leap of faith is required, and until the leap is actually taken the length of the gap is not known.

"In the beginning of a change, the patriot is a scarce man, brave, hated, and scorned. When his cause succeeds however, the timid join him, For then it costs nothing to be a patriot." -- Mark Twain

If only that were still true! Because the gap is always there. A timid or cowardly person would never take that leap. A vulture would immediately heap scorn on any heroic failure, but now these same vile cowards would even criticize a successful jumper after the fact. Those who must jump should pity the timid (who may gather their courage and make the jump themselves having seen the example) and simply ignore as best as possible the reprehensible actions of the rest, except as they may influence the decisions of the hesitant. That their poisonous taunts could paralyze a generation or more is unacceptable to any person of true courage. But perhaps among the wise the brave one's example is the best counter to this.

And that is true of every decision made in life. Leaders know when to jump, when to wait, and when to jump even though waiting seems the more attractive course.

Perhaps Teddy Roosevelt said it best.

"It is not the critic who counts, not the man who points out how the strong man stumbled, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena; whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs and comes short again and again; who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, and spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows in the end the triumph of high achievement; and who, at worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who know neither victory nor defeat."

I quoted Solzhenitsyn in a seperate chapter of that story, but this amazingly accurate "intelligence estimate" bears repeating, if only as a "perfect forecast" of our current situation:

"Today's Western society has revealed the inequality between the freedom for good deeds and the freedom for evil deeds. A statesman who wants to achieve something highly constructive for his country has to move cautiously and even timidly; thousands of hasty (and irresponsible) critics cling to him at all times; he is constantly rebuffed by parliament and the press. He has to prove his every step is well founded and absolutely flawless. Indeed, an outstanding, truly great person who has unusual and unexpected initiatives in mind does not get any chance to assert himself; dozens of traps will be set for him from the beginning. Thus mediocrity triumphs under the guise of democratic restraints."

Put that on your coffee mugs. (Hat tip: Smash)

Update: More here.