IRAN: A VIEW FROM THE LEFT

Back before the Iraq war the on-line communist magazine Alternet ran a piece titled 'Bush Wins': The Left's Nightmare Scenario" I've always appreciated the insight into left-think I gained from reading that, and have always wanted to demonstrate my total commitment to fairness by balancing my mainstream opinions with some extremist thought on this page. I've invited a guest blogger, Mr Bill Terwilliger, to prepare an entry in that same spirit of that wonderfully insightful Alternet article. Mr Terwilliger is a middle school curriculum development consultant for a major textbook publisher, and is considering a run for President on the Democratic ticket in '04. We may be hearing a lot more from Bill in the near future, but for now, here are his thoughts on Iran.

IRAN: LET'S NOT SCREW THIS ONE UP TOO!
By Bill Terwilliger

This past weekend as I was toking some rather primo weed with some recent High School grads at the gay pride teach-in for more aggressive affirmative action at a local University Freshman orientation event one of the perceptive little mushrooms asked me "Dude, like what is our position on Iran?"

"Well, I said, "as yet we don't have one, since we are waiting for the shrub to state his position so that we can oppose it because it is oppressive to minorities and the poor, and is all about big oil."

Then he said "But what if.." and I stopped him by passing him the roach and it's a good thing, because I think I know what he was going to ask and I didn't have an answer. But the little snotmaker was on to something; if we don't plan our response to the Bush-wa fascista on Iran he's going to one-up us yet again. And we don't need that.

So I began to mull the possibilities and this is what I think: We can divide the situation into two main categories:

A: The US intervenes in Iran and B: the US does not intervene.
And also we can predict three outcomes: 1: prolonged bloodshed, anarchy, death, chaos; 2: Status quo, no change; and 3: relatively peaceful overthrow of the current regime (in Iran, not the US, unfortunately) and its replacement by a pro-American person or group.

Obviously then for planning purposes we can designate the possible scenarios
A1, B1, A2, B2, B3, A3 with A1 being most desirable and A3 being our most heinous nightmare. We must also recognize that these represent points along a spectrum encompassing infinite other possible points.

We could perhaps also order these points according to the likelihood they would occur. It seems just now that US intervention is unlikely, so I place all B options before any A options on this list; thus B2, B1, (with something between B1 and 2 perhaps most likely) B3, A3, A1, and finally A2. Of course this spectrum is subject to shift at any time and is purely my opinion.

Noting that B1 is both desirable for us and likely, (no US intervention, a period of prolonged, murderous, anarchy in Iran) here's my proposed response should it occur:

We must be very careful in this situation, because if we can not be seen as "pro intervention" - it could be a little too similar to the Bushy policy on Iraq. Thus our focus must be completely on how Bush "missed an opportunity" while remaining vague on just what should have been done. Since the implication will be that any intelligent person could have done better, no one will want to admit that they aren't smart enough to see the solution immediately; thus we will not be called on to provide one. It will be assumed by all that we "just know" what should have been done. As for the bloodshed, that will create great sound bite opportunities along the lines of "You have their blood on your hands, Mr Bush, Mr Powell!" I think we can all see the desirability of this course of events, though as I said, we can't sound "pro intervention." No matter what, for our side this should be a win-win.

Now consider A1: American intervention with the same bloody results as B1. Here the potential is unequaled for us, but the occurrence less likely. Consider though the obvious joy to be had denouncing the failures of the President, the fantasies we all had in the early days of Iraq finally become reality! The only area we must be careful is we can't point out that the current Iranian regime could be replaced by a fundamentalist one; the current regime is fundamentalist. We must bear this in mind, if we take this position we must state clearly that we support the Iranian people in their struggle against U.S. imperialism, and not their government (so similar to ours in its fanatic religious fundamentalism).

Anyhow I think I've given you all a good start. It's up to the entire collective to fill in the response to all the other points on the spectrum and it's crucial that this time we are prepared for every eventuality. The future of our nation is at stake, perhaps more so then any other time in history.

Imagine a real worse case scenario - a free Iran and Iraq that are peaceful neighbors because of US intervention in the region. As far fetched as that may seem, we will need apologists for that if it should occur, else our country may never again be free from the oppression and tyranny that besets us now.

Now let's get on it, people! You have nothing to loose but your chains! Let's Roll!