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« Missing Pieces | Main | Enemy Eyes (3 - Lt Sutherland's Ride) »

June 29, 2011

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What he wouldn't say

By Greyhawk


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Back in late 2009, when President Obama decided to halfass his Afghanistan mission and to announce the July 2011 deadline to begin removing the troops he did send there, the DoD was able to manage one concession from the commander-in-chief: he would use language in his announcement indicating that drawdown would be "based on conditions on the ground." It wasn't much to work with, but at least it was something, and the troops gave it their best possible shot.

"That's why they won't work with us," Cpl. Lisa Gardner, one of the Marines, told a reporter traveling with the unit. "They say you'll leave in 2011 and the Taliban will chop their heads off. It's so frustrating."

Later in the day, Corporal Gardner and the other Marine, Cpl. Diana Amaya, reported the villager's reaction back at the base. Lance Cpl. Caleb Quessenberry advised them on how to deal with similar comments in the future. "Roll it off as, 'That's what somebody's saying,' " he told them. "As far as we know, we're here."

Unfortunately for them, Obama also immediately dispatched Joe Biden to make sure anyone who was listening would understand without a doubt that conditions on the ground wouldn't mean a damn thing when it came to a drawdown: "Let me tell you what I'm happy with... You're going to see [troop numbers] coming down as rapidly over the next two years."

Afghanistan certainly isn't the first time US troops have been sent somewhere in numbers too small to do a president's bidding, but since then, 100,000 Americans in Afghanistan have fought the first war in world history against an enemy who'd been assured of their opponent's quitting time. I'm told the Tollybon aren't the sharpest tools in the shed (though they might use those sharp tools from time to time), but you don't have to be able to read to understand that.

If there was ever any doubt about who was accurately explaining the President's plan - Joe Biden on TV or a few thousand young Americans in Shuras across Afghanistan, it's gone now.

Marine Lt. Gen. John Allen, nominated to replace Gen. David Petraeus as head of coalition forces in Afghanistan, acknowledged Tuesday that President Obama's decision to draw down 10,000 troops by the end of this year and the rest of the surge forces by September 2012 was not one of the options proposed to the president by Gen. Petraeus.

Score that Joe Biden: 1 - GI Joe: 0. The President is in charge, the generals will salute smartly and carry on, and as Obama explained to the troops at Ft Drum, he's betting our future on negotiations with the Tollybon. (I hear Paris is a good place for that sort of thing.)

*****

Let's turn back the clock a bit, to April, 2008. General Petraeus testified to Congress on the way forward in Iraq. The graph below (for a full explanation, click here) should help put that moment - along with the before and after - in historical perspective; it's indicated by the dashed red line.

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This wasn't the more widely-covered ("Betrayus") testimony of the previous summer, but it was an election year, and Democrats were still heavily invested in a narrative of Iraq as an eternal nightmare of endless war. Then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi even warned the General ahead of time not to come with a message that things were going well.

While there's no doubt he could have done more with more, General Petraeus got what he needed for Iraq. Of course, in April, 2008 the chart above ended where the dashed line is now - and other ways forward had their advocates, too. Which brings us to this moment in the hearings, as Senator Bayh applied all the skills in his politician's toolbox to get General Petraeus to say that reasonable people could certainly discount his advice.


Bayh: In fact reasonable people can differ about the most effective way forward, is that not also a fair observation?

Petraeus: I dont know whether I would go that far, sir. Obviously I think that there is a way forward, I've made a recommendation on that, and so I think in that sense...

Bayh: (interrupting) General, you would not mean to say that anyone who would have a different opinion is by definition an unreasonable person?

Petraeus: Senator lots of things in life are arguable, and certainly there are lots of different opinions out there, but again I believe that the recommendations that I have made are correct...

Bayh: (interrupting) Here's the reason for my question, gentlemen. Just as I acknowledge your honor and patriotism which I think is absolutely appropriate I hope you would acknowledge the honor and patriotism of those who have a look at this very complex set of facts and simply have a different point of view - and as you both are aware some argue that to not embrace the assessment you're giving us is in fact to embrace defeat - or to embrace failure in Iraq, and I simply would disagree with those characterizations and that was the reason for my question to you.

Petraeus: Senator, we fight for the right of people to have other opinions.

*****

Back to the present - or at least, last week. To bring us up to date, here's another graph.

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The white part of that is something the White House likes to brag about - in fact, they provided it. I had to add the red myself - the steady rise in American war deaths since Obama took office is something they'd prefer to ignore. We can all hope that negotiations with the Tollybon bear fruit - and that the red line plunges with the white as we pursue the way forward in Afghanistan. But as with Iraq in 2008, that way forward was the topic of Congressional testimony from General Petraeus last week.

LEVIN: I want to pick up the question of Afghanistan, the decision the president made last night. You gave a number of reasons here today where -- for why you -- as I read you, that you are comfortable implementing the decision that the president made, whether or not it was precisely following your recommendation or not, that you do feel comfortable implementing it and supporting it. Is that an accurate reading?

PETRAEUS: I would be a bit more qualified, Mr. Chairman.

There's a notable difference in this testimony compared to the 2008 version.

LEVIN: (inaudible) would you also agree with Admiral Mullen, as he put it to the committee, that the truth is, that we would have run other kinds of risks by keeping more forces in Afghanistan longer. That's his exact words.

And we would have made it easier for the Karzai administration to increase their dependency on us. Those were his words today as well.

We would have denied the Afghan security forces who've grown in capability opportunities to further exercise that capability and to lead.

And that, in terms of risks, we would have signaled to the enemy and to our regional partners that the Taliban still possessed strength enough to warrant the full measure of our presence. They do not.

Would you agree with Admiral Mullen on that?

PETRAEUS: I'm not sure I buy every bit of that characterization, Chairman...

Although the message "you aren't going to put words in my mouth" is still loud and clear - as is this point from the General:

I obviously support the ultimate decision of the commander in chief. That is, we take an oath to obey the orders of the President of the United States.
The exchange that followed, however, is noteworthy. The Senator asks "And if you couldn't do that consistent with that oath, you would resign?" - and clearly the expected "yes" response would indicate things aren't really all that bad, so the Senator was probably surprised when the General didn't give it.

PETRAEUS: Well, I'm not a quitter, Chairman.

LEVIN: Well...

PETRAEUS: And I don't -- I think that -- I've actually had people e-mail me and say that. And I actually -- this is something that I have thought a bit about.

I think there's much in his comments for every America to think about. I wish congressional testimony from commanders of American troops at war was considered as newsworthy now as it was in 2007. But wish in one hand, shit in the other - slap 'em together and you've got the way forward in Afghanistan.

*****

"I feel quite strongly about this," the General continued - after Senator Levin had tried to cut him off. "Our troopers don't get to quit."

And at the end of the day, this is not about me, it's not about an individual commander, it's not about a reputation. This is about our country.

And the best step for our country, with the commander in chief having made the decision, is to execute that decision to the very best of our ability, to do everything I can during the remainder of my time as commander of ISAF to enable General Allen then to take the effort forward, and then, if confirmed, to be the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, to do everything I can from that position with that great organization to support the effort as well.

*****

Added: scratch Kabul's Inter-Continental Hotel from the list of potential peace talk sites; apparently the Tollybon don't like it.



Posted by Greyhawk / June 29, 2011 12:25 PM | Permalink

7 Comments

Most Obama officials can clap with one hand - so the way forward is not as clear as you make it to be.

It's the RULES of ENGAGEMENT! Obama has limited the ability of the troops to affect the mission by reducing their power to defend themselves aggressively. I know we could win if the General had the lead but when REMF are making the rules our guys die unnecessarily. Obama won't let them win and I don't want another one of our precious young men dead or maimed or losing a damn toenail as long as Obama won't let them win.

Sorry, I just really wish the Obama admin had not announced withdrawal, timelines etc. He put the politics of his reelection over the welfare of our troops and their ability to function effectively. Bring 'em all home so they can VOTE and not have that vote thrown out!

Goal-wise, once the president is against the effort, ROE matter about as much as flower arrangements at the Kandahar Burger King.

But ROE-wise, those used in Afghanistan were the same as in Iraq. From my POV it was sad to watch so many folks join Obama's "I hate the Afghanistan war and General McChrystal" bandwagon over that issue.

I NEVER criticized the Afghan war until after the surge when Obama sabotaged the effort by announcing firm timelines for withdrawal... Prior to that I was supportive as I could be, care packages and the like ( still involved with that). I do not see how announcing to the world that we are leaving in any way helps the mission, only Obama's reelection hopes. I have been unhappy with the ROE since it was reported that our troops could not return fire if the perps dropped their weapon after firing at US troops. That is nuts.

Care packages are about the only way I can contribute other than prayers, and I will continue to do so no matter how I personally feel about the current strategy.

I think the right to criticize is part of what the troops fight for (I know I saw it that way when I was in Iraq!) A sort of a paradox, I suppose, but yet another reason why they deserve those care packages, and why those who send them (like you) are obviously those who appreciate that. (And are much appreciated in turn!)

I see where my language above was harsh, and apologize for that.

There's been much debate in professional military circles over tactics - what works and what doesn't. I'm frustrated by the point that among other things we'll have no useful lessons learned in that department from our Afghanistan experience over the past several years. Nothing "works" when the strategy is awful, poorly defined, or (worse yet) opposed by the guy at the top responsible for it.

Don't miss "The Obama Doctrine Defined" at Commentary magazine online, by Douglas Feith and Seth Cropsey. Or download it and read it after we're through celebrating the Fourth of July.

I'm with you, but what can you do with a president who is unfamiliar with history or the military. Puts our guys in a terrible position.

In other words-Obama is a dick!!!!

Can someone explain Why General Petraeus take a job at the CIA, and Panetta, the communist the DOD? Something just doesn't sit right with me.

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November 26, 2010


America@war
[Greyhawk]
I think anyone who's ever pondered the "comment" option - once only available on blogs and bulletin boards, now ubiquitous on almost any web site - will appreciate this:
The so-called faculty of writing is not so much a faculty of writing as it is a faculty of thinking. When a man says, "I have an idea but I can't express it"; that man hasn't an idea but merely a vague feeling. If a man has a feeling of that kind, and will sit down for a half an hour and persistently try to put into writing what he feels, the probabilities are at least 90 percent that he will either be able to record it, or else realize that he has no idea at all. In either case, he will do himself a benefit.

That's wisdom from the past, captured for posterity at the US Naval Institute, shared via the web on the institute's 137th anniversary.

From their about page:

The Naval Institute shall remain

INDEPENDENT - A non-profit member association, with no government support, that does not lobby for special interests;

NON-PARTISAN - An independent, professional military association with a mission, goals and objectives that transcend political affiliations; and shall encourage

IDEAS - Through its respected journals Proceedings and Naval History, its conferences, its books and its online content, in support of those who serve.

"The Naval Institute has three core activities," among them, History and Preservation:

The Naval Institute also has recently introduced Americans at War, a living history of Americans at war in their own words and from their own experiences. These 90-second vignettes convey powerful stories of inspiration, pride, and patriotism.

Take a look at the collection, and you'll see it's not limited to accounts from those who served on ships at sea, members of the other branches are well-represented.

I'm fortunate to have met USNI's Mary Ripley, she's responsible for the institute's oral history program (and she's the daughter of the late John Ripley, whose story is told here). She also deserves much credit for their blog. ("We're not the Navy nor any government agency. Blog and comment freely.") We met at a milblog conference - Mary knew (and I would come to realize) that milbloggers are the 21st-century version of exactly what the US Naval Institute is all about. Once that light bulb came on in my head, I mentioned a vague idea for a project to her - milblogs as the 21st century oral history that they are.

"Put that in writing," she said (of course - see first paragraph above!) - and here's part of the result.

Shortly after the first tent was pitched by the American military in Iraq a wire was connected to a computer therein, and the internet was available to a generation of Americans at war - many of whom had grown up online. From that point on, at any given moment, somewhere in Iraq a Soldier, Sailor, Airman or Marine was at a keyboard sharing the events of his or her day with the folks back home. While most would simply fire off an email, others took advantage of the (then) relatively new online blogging platforms to post their thoughts and experiences for the entire world to see. The milblog was born - and from that moment to this stories detailing everything from the most mundane aspects of camp life to intense combat action (often described within hours of the event) have been available on the web...

And et cetera - but since you're reading this on a milblog, you probably knew that. And you know that milblogs aren't just blogs written by troops at war, that many friends, family members, and supporters likewise documented their story of America at war online in near-real time, as those stories developed.

The diversity in membership of that group is broad, the one thing we all have in common is the impulse to make sense of the seemingly senseless, and communicate the tale - for each of us that impulse was strong enough to overcome whatever barriers prevent the vast majority of people from doing the same. Everyone at some point has some vague idea they believe should be shared - we were the people who, from some combination of internal and external urging, found and spent those many half hours persistently trying to write it down.

*****

But where will all that be in another 137 years? Or five or ten, for that matter. That's something I've asked myself since at least 2004 - when I wrote this:

Closing Blogs is nothing new. So many site's owners just give up on their own. They come and go, you know, these MilBloggers do. Like any other sort of blogger. Many post in the lonely down hours far from home, spill their guts for the world, then abandon their spots when the tour of duty is up. They have lives again somewhere in the world, and no need to share the details. So it goes.

Many are truly gone - no site left at all. "The page cannot be found." Other blogs remain, like abandoned defensive positions in shifting desert sands.

Membership in the ghost battalion has grown in the years since, and an ever growing majority of those abandoned-but-still-standing sites are vanishing. Have you checked out Lt Smash's site lately? How about Sgt Hook's? If you're a long-time milblog reader you know the first widely-read milblog from Operation Iraq Freedom and the first widely-read milblog from Afghanistan are both gone from the web. If you're a relative newcomer to this world you may never even have heard of them - or the dozens upon dozens of others who carried forth the standard they set down.

If you have a vague notion that something should be done about that, (a notion I've heard expressed more than once...) then you and I and the good folks at the US Naval Institute are in agreement. Preserving the history documented by the milbloggers is just one of the goals of the milblog project, the once-vague idea that we're now making real.

And it's a big idea, if I say so myself - too big to explain in one simple blog post, so stand by for more. Likewise, it's too big a task to be accomplished by just one person. So if you're a milblogger (and exactly what is a milblogger? is a topic for much further discussion on its own) I'm asking for your help. All I'll really need is just a little bit (maybe just one or two of those half hours...) of your time, and your willingness to tell the tale.

We've already made history, it's time to save it.

(More to follow...)




Posted 4:02 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) |

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The Mudville Gazette is the on-line voice of an American warrior and his wife who stands by him. They prefer to see peaceful change render force of arms unnecessary. Until that day they stand fast with those who struggle for freedom, strike for reason, and pray for a better tomorrow.
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  • cali: In other words-Obama is a dick!!!! Can someone explain Why read more
  • The Elephant's Child: Don't miss "The Obama Doctrine Defined" at Commentary magazine online, read more
  • Greyhawk: I think the right to criticize is part of what read more
  • TexasMom2012: I NEVER criticized the Afghan war until after the surge read more
  • Greyhawk: Goal-wise, once the president is against the effort, ROE matter read more
  • TexasMom2012: It's the RULES of ENGAGEMENT! Obama has limited the ability read more
  • Warren Walker: Most Obama officials can clap with one hand - so read more

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The Mudville Gazette is written and produced by Greyhawk, who recently retired from 24 years of active duty in the US military, but will maintain this disclaimer: Unless otherwise credited, the opinions expressed are those of the author, and nothing here is to be taken as representing the official position of or endorsement by the United States Department of Defense or any of its subordinate components.

Furthermore, I will occasionally use satire or parody herein. The bottom line: it's my house.

I like having visitors to my house. I hope you are entertained. I fight for your right to free speech, and am thrilled when you exercise said rights here. Comments and e-mails are welcome, but all such communication is to be assumed to be 1)the original work of any who initiate said communication and 2)the property of the Mudville Gazette, with free use granted thereto for publication in electronic or written form. If you do NOT wish to have your message posted, write "CONFIDENTIAL" in the subject line of your email.

Original content copyright © 2003 - 2011 by Greyhawk. Fair, not-for-profit use of said material by others is encouraged, as long as acknowledgement and credit is given, to include the url of the original source post. Other arrangements can be made as needed.

Contact: greyhawk at mudvillegazette dot com

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*****

Tending Distant
Fires


Far from hearth and home, watching
Cold alone but not alone
On distant shore and only wanting
Safe return and little more

What tales we'll tell
When that time comes
When tales can be told

When things grim
Seem far away
When other fires go cold

Some distant sunset, vision fading
Memories remain
And tired eyes gaze 'pon folded flags
While distant drums beat their refrain

Saluting fallen friends whose names
And youth will never fade
Here's to those on other shores,
for them live well, the price is paid

- Greyhawk,
Baghdad,
December 2004