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April 28, 2011

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Tornado Alley

By Greyhawk

The idea that there is such a place - and that you don't live in it - is one of many reasons so many people die in tornadoes elsewhere. Here's a good, layman's terms discussion on "tornado alley".

Swaths of Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee are relative "high-risk" (climatologically speaking) areas for strong, long-track, tornadic events - in fact they are the highest risk. That these are nonetheless rare increases the odds of replacing "tornadic events" with "killer storms" in that description.

I'd cite the death toll reported here (or here), but it keeps rising.

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Here's a chart from NOAA: "The purple points are the annual death rates, the red line is a simple smoother, the solid black line is a long-term trend in two sections (1875-1925, 1925-2000) and the cyan lines are estimates of the 10th percentile and 90th percentile from 1925-2000."

The solid black line, it seems to me, would be more representative of reality if it was broken into three sections, with the third from around 1980 on - and flat. Reality makes a strong case that (in spite of notable advances in scientific knowledge and sensing technologies - and the following should be taken as in no way dismissive of those advances - more, please) the real improvement evident in this chart, the dramatic downward plunge from 1925 through the 70s, was driven primarily by advances in communications systems - specifically radio and television, through that period. One might have expected some sort of internet-based improvement, but the internet is no faster than television in that regard. (And unless you've set your computer to deliver you warnings, could actually be a step backward from the automatic override available on your TV or radio.) In time something like that could result from the spread of portable devices - assuming their users have "an app for that" and that numerous false alarms don't render them essentially useless. (See "boy who cried wolf.")

There's another conclusion one can rightfully draw from this - beyond incremental improvement the government has done just about all it can (and "all it can" is laudable in this case) for you in regards to saving you from death by severe storm. In a big way the rest is up to you. (And nature, or fate, or God, if you prefer.) Of course, if you don't live in "tornado alley" you don't have to worry about all that, right?



Posted by Greyhawk / April 28, 2011 11:12 AM | Permalink

4 Comments

I used to live in North Alabama and we got missed a few times, It's scary stuff and you realize how powerless you are.

Here's a video from Tuscaloosa:

http://www.myfoxal.com/category/195956/video-landing-page?clipId=5797388&autostart=true

I enjoyed your thoughts on this subject. I would add another critical factor for your consideration. Immediate access to the warning information is important, but so is the choice to take action. The National Weather Service is looking for ways to improve our warning messages so that people will choose to take appropriate action. Increased outreach and education can help, but getting people to understand that "it can happen to me" is important, too. One of our 'campaigns' is "Turn Around- Don't Drown" that can include putting warning signs that say that at low spots in roads that frequently flood. Until people become aware that driving through less than a foot of running water over a road can sweep a car into a flooded river or stream, there will continue to be vehicle related flash flood deaths. Knowledge of actions to take and choosing to use that knowledge can save lives- like the hardware supply store that herded customers and staff into the most hardened, least dangerous portion of the store seconds before being hit by a tornado.

Excellent points, Robin. While this doesn't really add to the discussion, I will state my appreciation of the hard working - 24/7/365 - folks at the forecast offices. "Hours of boredom broken by moments of sheer terror" isn't a description unique to combat zones.

"If we are going to expect people to take appropriate actions when tornado warnings are issued, it is imperative that they know what those actions should be. Conveying information about safety actions during ‘‘callto- action’’ statements as part of a tornado warning may not provide much help, if people have not considered what they are going to do prior to the issuance of the warning."

Follow the NOAA Chart link, read the report (Brooks and Doswell 2002) - and this is one of their conclusions in their summary:

I remember a military idiom - or is it universal - about Prior Planning......

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November 26, 2010


America@war
[Greyhawk]
I think anyone who's ever pondered the "comment" option - once only available on blogs and bulletin boards, now ubiquitous on almost any web site - will appreciate this:
The so-called faculty of writing is not so much a faculty of writing as it is a faculty of thinking. When a man says, "I have an idea but I can't express it"; that man hasn't an idea but merely a vague feeling. If a man has a feeling of that kind, and will sit down for a half an hour and persistently try to put into writing what he feels, the probabilities are at least 90 percent that he will either be able to record it, or else realize that he has no idea at all. In either case, he will do himself a benefit.

That's wisdom from the past, captured for posterity at the US Naval Institute, shared via the web on the institute's 137th anniversary.

From their about page:

The Naval Institute shall remain

INDEPENDENT - A non-profit member association, with no government support, that does not lobby for special interests;

NON-PARTISAN - An independent, professional military association with a mission, goals and objectives that transcend political affiliations; and shall encourage

IDEAS - Through its respected journals Proceedings and Naval History, its conferences, its books and its online content, in support of those who serve.

"The Naval Institute has three core activities," among them, History and Preservation:

The Naval Institute also has recently introduced Americans at War, a living history of Americans at war in their own words and from their own experiences. These 90-second vignettes convey powerful stories of inspiration, pride, and patriotism.

Take a look at the collection, and you'll see it's not limited to accounts from those who served on ships at sea, members of the other branches are well-represented.

I'm fortunate to have met USNI's Mary Ripley, she's responsible for the institute's oral history program (and she's the daughter of the late John Ripley, whose story is told here). She also deserves much credit for their blog. ("We're not the Navy nor any government agency. Blog and comment freely.") We met at a milblog conference - Mary knew (and I would come to realize) that milbloggers are the 21st-century version of exactly what the US Naval Institute is all about. Once that light bulb came on in my head, I mentioned a vague idea for a project to her - milblogs as the 21st century oral history that they are.

"Put that in writing," she said (of course - see first paragraph above!) - and here's part of the result.

Shortly after the first tent was pitched by the American military in Iraq a wire was connected to a computer therein, and the internet was available to a generation of Americans at war - many of whom had grown up online. From that point on, at any given moment, somewhere in Iraq a Soldier, Sailor, Airman or Marine was at a keyboard sharing the events of his or her day with the folks back home. While most would simply fire off an email, others took advantage of the (then) relatively new online blogging platforms to post their thoughts and experiences for the entire world to see. The milblog was born - and from that moment to this stories detailing everything from the most mundane aspects of camp life to intense combat action (often described within hours of the event) have been available on the web...

And et cetera - but since you're reading this on a milblog, you probably knew that. And you know that milblogs aren't just blogs written by troops at war, that many friends, family members, and supporters likewise documented their story of America at war online in near-real time, as those stories developed.

The diversity in membership of that group is broad, the one thing we all have in common is the impulse to make sense of the seemingly senseless, and communicate the tale - for each of us that impulse was strong enough to overcome whatever barriers prevent the vast majority of people from doing the same. Everyone at some point has some vague idea they believe should be shared - we were the people who, from some combination of internal and external urging, found and spent those many half hours persistently trying to write it down.

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But where will all that be in another 137 years? Or five or ten, for that matter. That's something I've asked myself since at least 2004 - when I wrote this:

Closing Blogs is nothing new. So many site's owners just give up on their own. They come and go, you know, these MilBloggers do. Like any other sort of blogger. Many post in the lonely down hours far from home, spill their guts for the world, then abandon their spots when the tour of duty is up. They have lives again somewhere in the world, and no need to share the details. So it goes.

Many are truly gone - no site left at all. "The page cannot be found." Other blogs remain, like abandoned defensive positions in shifting desert sands.

Membership in the ghost battalion has grown in the years since, and an ever growing majority of those abandoned-but-still-standing sites are vanishing. Have you checked out Lt Smash's site lately? How about Sgt Hook's? If you're a long-time milblog reader you know the first widely-read milblog from Operation Iraq Freedom and the first widely-read milblog from Afghanistan are both gone from the web. If you're a relative newcomer to this world you may never even have heard of them - or the dozens upon dozens of others who carried forth the standard they set down.

If you have a vague notion that something should be done about that, (a notion I've heard expressed more than once...) then you and I and the good folks at the US Naval Institute are in agreement. Preserving the history documented by the milbloggers is just one of the goals of the milblog project, the once-vague idea that we're now making real.

And it's a big idea, if I say so myself - too big to explain in one simple blog post, so stand by for more. Likewise, it's too big a task to be accomplished by just one person. So if you're a milblogger (and exactly what is a milblogger? is a topic for much further discussion on its own) I'm asking for your help. All I'll really need is just a little bit (maybe just one or two of those half hours...) of your time, and your willingness to tell the tale.

We've already made history, it's time to save it.

(More to follow...)




Posted 4:02 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) |

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The Mudville Gazette is the on-line voice of an American warrior and his wife who stands by him. They prefer to see peaceful change render force of arms unnecessary. Until that day they stand fast with those who struggle for freedom, strike for reason, and pray for a better tomorrow.
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  • Warren Walker: "If we are going to expect people to take appropriate read more
  • Greyhawk: Excellent points, Robin. While this doesn't really add to the read more
  • Robin from Anchorage: I enjoyed your thoughts on this subject. I would add read more
  • bill: I used to live in North Alabama and we got read more

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The Mudville Gazette is written and produced by Greyhawk, who recently retired from 24 years of active duty in the US military, but will maintain this disclaimer: Unless otherwise credited, the opinions expressed are those of the author, and nothing here is to be taken as representing the official position of or endorsement by the United States Department of Defense or any of its subordinate components.

Furthermore, I will occasionally use satire or parody herein. The bottom line: it's my house.

I like having visitors to my house. I hope you are entertained. I fight for your right to free speech, and am thrilled when you exercise said rights here. Comments and e-mails are welcome, but all such communication is to be assumed to be 1)the original work of any who initiate said communication and 2)the property of the Mudville Gazette, with free use granted thereto for publication in electronic or written form. If you do NOT wish to have your message posted, write "CONFIDENTIAL" in the subject line of your email.

Original content copyright © 2003 - 2011 by Greyhawk. Fair, not-for-profit use of said material by others is encouraged, as long as acknowledgement and credit is given, to include the url of the original source post. Other arrangements can be made as needed.

Contact: greyhawk at mudvillegazette dot com

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*****

Tending Distant
Fires


Far from hearth and home, watching
Cold alone but not alone
On distant shore and only wanting
Safe return and little more

What tales we'll tell
When that time comes
When tales can be told

When things grim
Seem far away
When other fires go cold

Some distant sunset, vision fading
Memories remain
And tired eyes gaze 'pon folded flags
While distant drums beat their refrain

Saluting fallen friends whose names
And youth will never fade
Here's to those on other shores,
for them live well, the price is paid

- Greyhawk,
Baghdad,
December 2004