The Show Goes On

- whether it must or not.

Let's do a bit of Sunday morning channel surfing.

NBC's Meet the Press opened with an update from the frontlines of Libya's civil war from Richard Engel, appearing with a backdrop of a half dozen locals posed on the ruined hulk of a tank. The rebels are making progress, those frontlines are moving forward, we're told. Their next stop (stopped because they're expected to "find the next group of Qaddafi's troops truly dug in, and again in need of Western help to push this advance"): Qaddafi's home town, Sirt.

I used the term "civil war" above. But call it a "revolution" or "insurgency" (and ignore whether or not we should be focused on Afghanistan) if the term causes you dismay. This is about what we're doing in Libya, and not about marketing campaigns, or the words others are using to describe the armed conflict for control of that country or to expose the hypocrisy of their political foes.

As for what we're doing, it's "The clearest sign yet that air strikes are paving the way for rebels to advance against Qaddafi and his forces," David Gregory explains by way of introduction. Engel reports our air strikes have "destroyed at least 20 tanks and other armored vehicles in this area alone," (he's near Ajdabiya) and "if the airstrikes stop, [the rebels] will no longer be able to advance and this could become a long, drawn-out stalemate."

Advance to where? "The rebels hope this advance will take them to Tripoli."

Change channels: On CNN Alex Marquardt is also advancing with the rebels. "A quick advance was expected following the stalemate that was broken by the coalition air strikes," he says. But now "opposition leaders hope the rebels' advance will slow down a bit and allow senior defected military officials to take over." Not too far forward along the road to Tripoli is Sirt, he explains, which is Qaddafi's hometown and "they're not sure what sort of weapons he has there."

Clicking back to Meet the Press: "Is Qaddafi capable of routing the rebels?" David Gregory asks Hillary Clinton. "At this point," she replies, "it appears his efforts have been stopped." Good, sez I.

None of that will stop people from pretending we aren't supporting the rebels. But we just took in a lot of information in a very few words, and maybe you haven't been watching this particular show; let's pause the DVR and sort it out a bit.

First, the cast of characters and plot: American ("NATO under UN authorization with support from the Arab League and African Union," if you prefer) airpower is supporting rebels, who hail primarily from eastern Libya, in their attack on Qadaffi loyalists. ("It is now at a stage where the air strikes are no longer just about defending the people of Benghazi," says Engel. "We're considerably far away from Benghazi; the air strikes have destroyed all the forces that were threatening the city. Now the air strikes are really helping an advance by the rebels...").

"Qaddafi loyalists" are the dictator's armed forces - some of which he sent east to kill those rebels (or mere protesters - and probably innocent civilians who'd be caught in the crossfire, too).

"The rebels" are an... um... er... interesting group. (One that U.S. officials don't like to talk much about, and that U.S. reporters don't like to ask about. Picture Obi Wan, Luke, and Princess Leia on that desert planet from Star Wars if it makes you happy. You'll be almost right about the background scenery, at least.)

That "interesting group" can claim home turf - that Qaddafi loyalists "invaded" - in eastern Libya; with our air support they've turned them back. But they've reached the edge of that turf. The next step westward is "Qaddafi country" - and it's where things get considerably tougher. Part of the reason for that is because of one thing the rebels are not - there's no significant number of trained military members (or leaders) in their ranks. The nearest thing they've got to that are a handful of folks who "joined the jihad" in Iraq or Afghanistan, maybe took a few shots at American or British forces there, planted a few IEDs, or helped behead some of the locals who didn't share their idea of "liberation." (But only a few dozen of those types; hundreds at the most. If there are significant numbers of rebels at all, the bulk are people with no combat experience whatsoever.)

You go to war with the allies you have, a wise man might say - but that's not the mix of allies we want. That's one reason why Marquardt's explanation that "opposition leaders hope the rebels' advance will slow down a bit and allow senior defected military officials to take over" is important. Much of what's happened in Libya so far has been improv - but that quote offers a quick look at the script the Obama administration would like to follow from here on out. All that's needed is the right actor for the part; the obvious next line of this script (act one, final scene, just before the curtain...) requires one of Qaddafi's senior military leaders to defect. (And bring his army with him.)

We tune back in to Meet the Press just in time to hear Secretary Clinton issue the casting call. "We're sending a message to people around [Qaddafi]: do you really want to be a pariah? Do you want to end up in the international criminal court? Now is your time to get out of this and to help change the direction."

"Don't underestimate what Hillary just said," Secretary Gates added. "The people around him, looking at what's happening and the international view of this place and when is the time to turn and go to the other side." (Secretary Gates also pointed out that the second UN resolution on Libya authorizes us to arm the rebels, but that no decision on whether to do so has been made by the U.S. government at this time...)

It's a time-limited moment, indeed. The president himself will speak tomorrow. He's already achieved what might prove to be his easiest goal: most people accepted that this was a NATO mission before he finished his South American tour. We're still in improv mode for now (acceptable to a degree in act one). But the act two script is written in pencil - not ink, and it can be changed on the fly.

The curtain will fall on act one regardless, and we still aren't sure if this production is a comedy, tragedy, drama, or farce.