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March 20, 2010

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Wheels within wheels

By Greyhawk

There's been no shortage of news stories lately on successful anti-Taliban efforts in Pakistan. It began with a leaked (but only after they knew it wouldn't hurt national security!) story from the New York Times ("The participation of Pakistan's spy service could suggest a new level of cooperation from Pakistan's leaders...") and for weeks thereafter it seemed a day didn't pass without news of another Taliban operative captured there. Here's a roundup of some of the roundups, crediting both the CIA and Pakistan's intelligence service for their great success. ("...by far the most extensive and successful targeting of the Afghan Taliban since the war began... The raids suggest that the two agencies are working closer together than ever before.")

Hooray for a new era of cooperation - but now comes this:

The former United Nations envoy to Afghanistan accused Pakistan of undermining negotiations with the Taliban by arresting senior Taliban officials.

Kai Eide, a Norwegian diplomat who stepped down from the U.N. post this month, said in a British Broadcasting Corp. interview broadcast Friday that he had been engaged in negotiations about a possible end to Afghanistan's war with "senior Taliban leadership" since last spring, with the apparent blessing of the insurgency's overall chief, Mullah Muhammad Omar.

These contacts, Mr. Eide added, stopped in the past few weeks after Pakistan captured the Taliban's operations chief and effective No. 2 Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar in Karachi and detained more than a dozen other Afghan Taliban leaders.

Pakistan's motivation, Mr. Eide suggested, was to stop independent negotiations between the Taliban and the international community, so as to ensure its own control over any future settlement--a theory that Pakistani officials have denied.

More from the New York Times

"The Pakistanis did not play the role that they should have played," he said in the interview, which he confirmed to The New York Times.

There has been a swirl of often contradictory reports about the arrest of Mullah Baradar, and a wide range of American and international reactions to it. Some American officials have welcomed Pakistan's new enthusiasm for hunting down Taliban leaders. Others have questioned Pakistan's motivations in detaining Mullah Baradar, who was open to early discussions about peace negotiations.

Eide's BBC interview is here.

Peter Galbraith, once the Obama administration's "man inside" the UN Afghanistan mission, says things weren't as Eide claims.

Mr Galbraith, who had a public falling out with Mr Eide last year, said of his former colleague: "He's had very irregular meetings with people who were once associated with the Taleban, but he has not been in any negotiations with the Quetta Shura. He's simply exaggerated his role."

In his final news conference as the United Nations special representative in Afghanistan earlier this month, Eide "cautioned against excessive militarization of international efforts" there, and "also warned that military operations against insurgents needed to be waged in a manner that did not impede efforts to negotiate a peaceful solution with them."

Prior to the announcement of the Taliban arrests, General McChrystal commented on senior Taliban leaders here.

FT: Do you think then that it would be conceivable that this conflict could end with senior figures in the Taliban perhaps playing a role in a future government in Kabul?

Gen McChrystal: It's hard to speculate about individuals, but I think that anybody who dedicates themselves to the future and not the past, and anybody whose future is focused on the right kinds of things for Afghanistan, under a constitutional fair umbrella, then I think it's likely that it will be a wide participation.

However, he added that the decision wasn't his, and "would be the Afghan people's." Further: "It's not my job to extend olive branches, but it's my job to help set conditions where people in the right positions can have options on the way forward."

General Petraeus commented in an interview here.

Senior commanders right up to the very top if they're willing?

As Secretary Gates observed recently. He noted the possibility of that is probably unlikely given the dynamics at present but I don't think it is something that anyone rules out. Again that was not an option pursued in Iraq. We certainly never approached the most senior al-Qaeda in Iraq or the most senior Sunni extremist leaders. However there were certainly some fairly high-level insurgent leaders who did indeed reconcile with the Iraqi Government so it is not something that can be ruled out but it is also not something that I would anticipate as they say in the United States: coming soon to a theatre near you.

Both those late January comments could be interpreted as a signal to the enemy that negotiations would be welcome - but a few days later came the announcements of the captures in Pakistan.

Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and Afghan President Hamid Karzai discussed the topic during Gates' visit there this month.

On the issue of reconciliation with top Taliban leaders, Gates said it was important that it be done under terms set by the Afghan government. Recent captures of Afghan Taliban leaders by the Pakistani intelligence service have increased speculation that Pakistan is attempting to put its own imprint on any talks that materialize.

Returning to the original New York Times story on the capture of Baradar ("The New York Times learned of the operation on Thursday, but delayed reporting it at the request of White House officials... The Times is publishing the news now because White House officials acknowledged that the capture of Mullah Baradar was becoming widely known in the region...") for the sake of a complete account it's worth noting that the story broke after a weekend of highly-publicized assaults on the Obama administration's anti-terror policies from former VP Dick Cheney.

The thus-timely Times' account prompted responses like this one.

The capture of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Taliban's top military commander, is no small matter. It's a "major victory." Given that Baradar is the most significant Taliban figure to be detained since the war began, and his role in leading the Taliban's military operations, this is a success that may very well pay considerable dividends for U.S. forces in Afghanistan.

As far as the politics is concerned, it's worth noting that U.S. leaders were well aware of Baradar's capture late last week, but deliberately kept the news under wraps in order to help bolster a sensitive and ongoing intelligence-gathering effort. This prompted Juan Cole to note:

[T]hat Joe Biden and others kept the arrest secret, in order to allow further operations against Taliban leaders in Karachi, shows a discipline that Bush and Cheney never had. They were always happy to prematurely release details of ongoing investigations to get a political bump, even if it meant allowing terrorists to escape.
Right. Dick Cheney was blasting the Obama administration on national security over the weekend, and it might have been tempting for Biden and others to use the Baradar capture as evidence that Cheney doesn't know what he's talking about. But the White House Grown-Ups knew the ongoing efforts were more important than making Dick the Clown look foolish. As Andrew Sullivan noted, the president and his team "are serious about national security and do not put domestic political games before it."

The author was perplexed as to why the Obama administration wasn't drawing even more attention to the great success.

I have my own reasons for taking any report on the CIA, ISI, UN, or the Obama administration (and this story involves all of them) with a grain of salt - perhaps best summed up by this: it seems certain that things are never as they seem.



Posted by Greyhawk / March 20, 2010 10:56 AM | Permalink

2 TrackBacks

TrackBack URL: http://www.mudvillegazette.com/cgi-bin/mt/mt-tb.cgi/17505

Welcome to the Dawn Patrol, our daily roundup of information on the War on Terror and other topics - from the MilBlogs and various sources around the world. If you're a blogger, you can join the conversation. If you link to any of these stories, add a ... Read More

Obama in Afghanistan from Mudville Gazette on March 28, 2010 4:59 PM

"High on symbolism", says the BBC:The BBC's Martin Patience in Kabul says that for security reasons the visit - expected to last only a few hours - was not announced beforehand and Mr Karzai was given just an hour's notice. But while the trip is expect... Read More

2 Comments

Greyhawk, *Well done!* You make a very important point about taking all sources of information with a "grain of salt." History has this bad habit of flushing out the truth. She also has a bad habit of flushing out the other stuff. The trick is we must be willing to see the difference. *Thank you, Sir.*

The president and his team are serious about national security and do not put domestic political games before it." This is not what I thought of the current administration. He seemed to be more ocncern on domestic solutions of the problems than taking too seriously on national security. I thought I got him wrong. However, such seriousness would not be as intense as that of the previous administration... Am still hoping for the best in this administration as it deals with the national security and the like.

Leave a comment

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July 19, 2010


Dawn Patrol 07/19/2010
[Greyhawk]

Welcome to the Dawn Patrol, our ongoing roundup of information on war and other topics - from the MilBlogs and other sources around the world.

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Always updating - refresh for updates.

AFGHANISTAN

Prospects for stability in Musa Qala: challenges and possible solutions -- [Bill Ardolino /Long War Journal - in Afghanistan]
Part 3 in a three-part series on Musa Qala. For Part 1, see The checkered history of Musa Qala; for Part 2, see US Marines battle the Taliban for control of Musa Qala.
..."To the west, there are more 'little-t Taliban,' mostly in it for the money and drug smuggling," explains McDowell. "The farther east of the line you go, the more you see 'capital-T Taliban,' the ideologues who are affiliated with the Qetta Shura."
...A third, nebulous category of enemy also exists: violence is often tied to inscrutable local business interests, politics, and simple crime, especially in cases of Afghan-on-Afghan violence.
"Here in the District Center ... it's really strange, it's hard to characterize what is happening," explains H&S Company Commander First Lieutenant Joshua Hartley, who regularly leads patrols through Musa Qala...
Positive factors at present include...

Exploding Culverts -- [Kandahar Diary - in Afghanistan]
The ambush was initiated with a large IED, planted in a road culvert...
The initiation was followed up by sustained and accurate small-arms and RPG fire to the front, middle and rear of the convoy from the high ground on both sides of the MSR. My guards de-bussed and returned fire...

Arbaki -- [Free Range International - in Afghanistan]
It looks like the new boss has convinced President Karzai to reverse his position on using tribal militias. The new name for these soon to be created Arbaki is Local Police Forces (LPF.) This is a plan which has been tried before with minimal success... I'm not sure what is being modified to make this cunning plan more effective than the last time around but I do know this much - the plan is going to fail.

Weather -- [A Major's Perspective - in Afghanistan]
Its hot here right now...but not a hot like you would think...
The wind is something to describe though. Starting in late spring it starts to pickup and everyday around 230PM until Midnight it blows. All of the sand / dust gets picked up by it turning into a swirling maelstorm of junk and dirt.
For the guys in Kandahar and the eastern portions of the country it is different. Kandahar is hot, very hot, reminds me of Iraq hot. The east of the country is hot but also mixed with humidity...

Fête Nationale -- [Field Notes: One Soldier's Perspective - in Afghanistan]
July 14: This morning we had a brief ceremony to recognize and celebrate "Fête Nationale" or French National Day. It is the official national day of France. While it is also known as Bastille Day (anniversary of storming the Bastille in 1789), it actually celebrates the anniversary of the Fête de la Fédération that occurred on 14 July 1790 (one year after the storming of the Bastille)...
This morning's ceremony featured the raising of the French flag over the ISAF Headquarters...

Goodbye "FaST" Food (and good riddance) -- [FaST Surgeon - in Afghanistan]
...I am completely for the elimination of places like BK and Pizza Hut from military installations. Not only in theaters of war, but in ALL military installations. I simply don't believe there is any reason for their existence on our bases / camps / or posts...


IRAQ

On The Iran, Iraq Border -- [J.D. Johannes - in Iraq]
In the 1980s Iran and Iraq fought to a bloody stalemate on a thin strip of desert over access to a waterway, the Shatt al Arab, that had been in dispute since the days of the Ottoman Empire.
The war was a pure fire-power battle resembling the trench warfare of World War I and the set piece charges of the American Civil War.
The tension over the Iran/Iraq border still lingers making border security one of the key missions of US Forces in Iraq.
I spent a day at the Shalamcha Port of Entry, a bustling entry point for Iranian tourists and transhipment point east of Basrah, Iraq...


WAR ON TERROR /TERRORISM

Senators Look For Smoking Gun In BP-Lockerbie Link -- [AP]
...Soon after al-Megrahi's release last year, BP acknowledged that it urged the British government to sign a prisoner transfer agreement with Libya, but stressed it didn't specify his case. It reiterated that stance this week when four U.S. Democratic senators asked the State Department to investigate whether there was a quid pro quo for the Lockerbie bomber's release.
"The evidence here may be circumstantial but if I were a prosecutor, I'd love to take this case to a jury," said New York Sen. Charles Schumer...

No Link Between BP And Lockerbie Release: UK Envoy -- [NPR news blog]
Many people for obvious reasons are more than willing to believe the worst about BP.
So when stories circulated this week that the company had lobbied for Scotland to release convicted Lockerbie bomber Abdelbaset al-Megrahi in order to secure an oil deal with Libya, many BP haters were perfectly ready to believe that.
But the United Kingdom's ambassador to the U.S., Nigel Sheinwald, says BP played no such a role in the al-Megrahi affair.
The envoy explained in an open letter to Sen. John Kerry, chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee...

UK's Cameron: Releasing Lockerbie Bomber Was Wrong -- [AP]
"As leader of opposition, I couldn't have been more clear that I thought the decision to release al-Megrahi was completely and utterly wrong," Cameron told the BBC before leaving Tuesday on his first visit as British leader to the United States, where he is expected to face questioning about the case.
In fact, Cameron's political party did more than just condemn the former Libyan intelligence agent's release. In the weeks following, Britain's Conservatives called for an inquiry into whether trade considerations played any role in the decision.
The party has changed tack, however, since taking control in May of Britain's government in a coalition. Cameron's Downing Street office said a government-commissioned inquiry was "not currently under consideration."
Cameron emphasized that the final decision to release al-Megrahi was made by Scotland's government, which holds some limited powers within the United Kingdom, and not by the previous British government headed by Prime Minister Gordon Brown.


U.S. AND OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD

As Cameron and Obama Meet, BP Will Be Top Issue -- [NY Times]
On the eve of a White House meeting with President Obama, Prime Minister David Cameron on Monday stepped into the furor over BP's lobbying for a prisoner-transfer agreement between Britain and Libya by saying he considered the release of the convicted Lockerbie bomber from a Scottish prison last year to be "completely and utterly wrong."
Ten weeks after taking office, Mr. Cameron is making his first visit to the United States as prime minister. He and Mr. Obama have a ledger of issues to discuss, including the Cameron government's decision to set an end date of 2015 for Britain's combat role in Afghanistan...

Afghanistan tops agenda for British PM's visit -- [Washington Times]
The White House on Monday said the war in Afghanistan is "first and foremost" on the agenda for Prime Minister David Cameron's first Washington visit with President Obama, but the new British leader will be walking a political tightrope over the release of the Lockerbie bomber amid questions from Congress about whether BP had a role in the decision.
The meeting Tuesday comes as operations in Afghanistan are at a pivotal point...


WELCOME HOME

Homecoming -- [Rajiv Srinivasan - home from Afghanistan]
..."All 5th Brigade Personnel bound for Joint-Base Lewis-McChord, we'll be boarding you at Gate 4 in five minutes," announced an airline representative over the intercom. A smile broke across my face. I was heading home. I was almost done. This war was over for me, and I could wash my hands of it for at least a year or two. I jumped up from my seat, gave one last grin at the run way, knowing I'd be on it in just a few moments.
"Hey Raj," called out my friend James, a West Point classmate in the brigade.
"What's going on brother?! Ready to kick this pig?!" I slapped him enthusiastically on the back.
"Rajiv...something's happened." James voice became quiet...


STRATEGY & TACTICS

ISAF, SCR Address Military ROE and Tactical Directives -- [ISAF]
"Our rules of engagement are solid, and they have not changed," said Blotz. "They are based on international law and are standardized across 47 nations, and describe the circumstances and limitations under which forces will begin or continue to engage in combat. This defines the"right and left limits" of what we will allow our forces to do as they fight."
...He added that the tactical directives tell troops what they should do while the rules of engagement instruct them what they can do. In an example he describes the difference between the two directives.
"If our troops are fired upon from a compound, under the laws of armed conflict...international law, that compound is a legal target," the general said. "However, the current tactical directive will ask our troops to consider the minimal level of force that's required to handle the situation."
...At the moment, the application of the current tactical directive is being reviewed to ensure it is consistently being used across our force.
"It is important to remember that [ISAF] military forces always retain the right to self defense, if commanders believe their forces are in danger they are required to make decisions to protect themselves," said Blotz..


SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

Raytheon's pain gun finally gets deployed in Afghanistan (update: recalled) -- [Engadget]
t's been six long years since we first got wind of the Pentagon's Active Denial System, and four since it was slated to control riots in Iraq, but though we've seen reporters zapped by the device once or twice, it seems the Air Force-approved pain gun is only now entering service in Afghanistan...
Update: Sorry folks, false alarm -- a Air Force spokesperson just informed us that though the pain gun was indeed sent to Afghanistan, it's now being returned to the US without ever seeing use.


Pain Ray Recalled From Afghanistan -- [Noah Shachtman/Danger Room]
...The system's tactical advantages are far outweighed by the strategically-massive propaganda boost that the pain ray would've given the Taliban.

The Active Denial System: the weapon that's a hot topic -- [The Telegraph (UK)]
In 2007, with the situation in Iraq at its most volatile since the invasion, US forces requested the presence of the ADS. It was never sent. Indeed, The Daily Telegraph has learnt that it has now been recalled from Afghanistan, without being fired in anger...
...Other problems come from the limitations of the device itself. Rain, snow and fog hamper its effectiveness, and it can be blocked by highly reflective materials such as aluminium foil...
Yet even if the ADS falls short, the ongoing pressure to keep the civilian body count to a minimum has made the development of similar weapons a top priority for Western forces. The ADS is only one of a raft of new non-lethal measures the US has been developing, under varying levels of secrecy...

World's Fastest Helicopter Boosts Battle Against Insurgents -- [ISAF]
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...The aircraft's value in the battle against insurgents lies in its versatile performance. The Lynx crews can track insurgent movements and watch over vulnerable areas with its sophisticated surveillance camera. This "overwatch" capability helps in the protection of the massive convoys used to re-supply front line troops in the forward operating bases.
The convoys can be vulnerable to attack as they track across vast swathes of desert from base to base but with the Lynx and its formidable weapons systems circling above, the insurgents stay away...




POLITICS

Is it time for a real GI Jane? -- [CNN]


HUMOR/SATIRE

-- []


(Need more? Dawn Patrols Archives are here.)



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The Mudville Gazette is the on-line voice of an American warrior and his wife who stands by him. They prefer to see peaceful change render force of arms unnecessary. Until that day they stand fast with those who struggle for freedom, strike for reason, and pray for a better tomorrow.
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The Mudville Gazette is written and produced by Greyhawk. Unless otherwise credited, the opinions expressed are those of the author, and nothing here is to be taken as representing the official position of or endorsement by the United States Department of Defense or any of its subordinate components. Furthermore, I will occasionally use satire or parody herein. The bottom line: it's my house.

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