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« Meanwhile, back in Iraq | Main | Wheels within wheels »

March 20, 2010

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The way we were

By Greyhawk

FACING UP TO IRAQ
Washington Post, Monday, January 29, 2001

OF ALL THE booby traps left behind by the Clinton administration, none is more dangerous -- or more urgent -- than the situation in Iraq. Over the last year, Mr. Clinton and his team quietly avoided dealing with, or calling attention to, the almost complete unraveling of a decade's efforts to isolate the regime of Saddam Hussein and prevent it from rebuilding its weapons of mass destruction.

That leaves President Bush to confront a dismaying panorama in the Persian Gulf: intelligence photos that show the reconstruction of factories long suspected of producing chemical and biological weapons; reports of massive illegal Iraqi exports of oil through Syria; a stream of planes landing at Baghdad airport in violation of sanctions, carrying passengers from France, Russia, Turkey and Italy, in addition to Arab states; Turkey and even Britain signaling that they may no longer be willing to support U.S. air operations over Iraq. And, in case there is any doubt about Saddam Hussein's intentions, he recently presided over a bellicose military parade in Baghdad featuring 1,000 tanks and scores of mobile missile systems.

The Clintonites had one clear reason for trying to ignore this worsening threat: It is hard to know what to do. Efforts to tighten sanctions on Iraq in the U.N. Security Council, or even to maintain the ones that exist, are blocked by France, Russia and China, which are eager to do business with Iraq. Arab states -- and in particular the wobbly new leaders of Syria and Jordan -- have no interest in supporting a U.S. effort to crack down on Baghdad. On the contrary, Arabs throughout the Middle East are angry at the United States for its perceived support for Israel during recent clashes with the Palestinians, and that mood is likely to grow still uglier in the months ahead. The Iraqi opposition remains weak and divided; even its latest, modest plan to mount clandestine aid and propaganda operations inside Iraq, reluctantly funded by the outgoing Clinton administration to satisfy a congressional mandate, seems like a reach.

In this light, the two-word prescription for Iraq that Secretary of State Colin Powell has so far repeated -- "reinvigorate sanctions" -- is more ambitious than it sounds, while the hugely aggressive plan endorsed two years ago by Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and his likely deputy, Paul Wolfowitz, which involved recognizing an alternative Iraqi government and providing it military cover to set up a headquarters in southern Iraq, sounds just as ambitious as it is. Both ideas would require radical reversals by unhappy allies such as Turkey and Jordan, and Secretary Powell would have to win over non-allies such as Syria and Russia too. Other options are more plausible but far weaker: The United Nations is due to resume talks with Iraq next month and could try to broker a deal that would end sanctions in return for Iraq's acceptance of new weapons inspections; some Europeans are suggesting a refocusing of sanctions on essentials, such as controlling Iraqi oil exports and stopping the import of militarily useful materials.

In all this, the option the Bush administration can least afford is Mr. Clinton's inaction. Saddam Hussein -- who tried to assassinate Mr. Bush's father after losing the Persian Gulf War to him -- is likely to challenge the administration soon; among other things, Iraq has been laying the groundwork for an attempt to disrupt world oil markets by withholding its production as OPEC tightens supplies. To be sure, it will take considerable time and effort to roll back Saddam Hussein's gains. But in the short term, some steps can be taken. Pressure can be focused on Syria, as well as on Turkey and Jordan, to stop the illegal export of Iraqi oil. And the administration can take a clear stand: If new Iraqi production facilities for weapons of mass destruction can be identified, the United States quickly will take action against them -- with or without its allies.

In fairness, here's a policy statement from the Clinton administration, issued within days of his inauguration in 1993.

CLINTON -- U.S. WILL STAY WITH IRAQ POLICY

(Following is an editorial, broadcast by the Voice of America January 26, reflecting the views of the U.S. government.)

The new administration of President Bill Clinton has made it clear in both words and deeds that it will continue to insist that Iraq comply with U.N. Security Council resolutions. The day after President Clinton took office, an Iraqi missile battery used its radar in a hostile manner to track American planes patrolling the "no-fly" zone in northern Iraq. In accordance with previously established rules of engagement, the American planes attacked the Iraqi missile site. A similar incident took place the next day.

President Clinton stressed that United States policy on Iraq will not change. "It is the American policy," he said, "and that is what we are going to stay with."

Secretary of State Warren Christopher also stressed the continuity of U.S. policy toward Iraq. "The United States intends to protect our pilots in the 'no-fly' zone," he said. "The Iraqis know perfectly well what it takes to comply with the U.N. resolutions and with the establishment of the 'no-fly' zones." Secretary Christopher said the U.S. attack on the missile site shows the determination with which the Clinton administration will pursue its policy toward Iraq.

The United States and other members of the international coalition have established "no-fly" zones in both northern and southern Iraq to protect coalition pilots helping to monitor Iraqi compliance with U.N. Security 1ouncil Resolution 688. This resolution demands that Iraq cease immediately its repression of the Iraqi people. Earlier this month, after repeated Iraqi violations of the "no-fly" zones, officials of the United States, Britain, France and Russia issued a formal warning to Iraq. When the warning was ignored, coalition forces took military action. The coalition members have made it clear that further actions will depend on the Iraqi regime's behavior.

As President Clinton said in his inaugural address on January 20, America "will not shrink from the challenges" it faces in a changing world but will work with its friends and allies to shape change. President Clinton said that when America's "vital interests are challenged, or the will and conscience of the international community is defied, we will act -- with peaceful diplomacy whenever possible, with force when necessary."

More here.




Posted by Greyhawk / March 20, 2010 9:39 AM | Permalink

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1 Comment

I agree with what you posted here, but urge you to pay some more attention to Russian overtures in the region. Just a few months ago, Russia launched an Arabic newspaper, Anbaa Moscow, that they have spent serious money to distribute throughout the Middle East. Clearly they want to reignite relations with the Arab world, giving them a stronger voice in any developments in the region. This shouldn't be ignored.

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July 19, 2010


Dawn Patrol 07/19/2010
[Greyhawk]

Welcome to the Dawn Patrol, our ongoing roundup of information on war and other topics - from the MilBlogs and other sources around the world.

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Always updating - refresh for updates.

AFGHANISTAN

Prospects for stability in Musa Qala: challenges and possible solutions -- [Bill Ardolino /Long War Journal - in Afghanistan]
Part 3 in a three-part series on Musa Qala. For Part 1, see The checkered history of Musa Qala; for Part 2, see US Marines battle the Taliban for control of Musa Qala.
..."To the west, there are more 'little-t Taliban,' mostly in it for the money and drug smuggling," explains McDowell. "The farther east of the line you go, the more you see 'capital-T Taliban,' the ideologues who are affiliated with the Qetta Shura."
...A third, nebulous category of enemy also exists: violence is often tied to inscrutable local business interests, politics, and simple crime, especially in cases of Afghan-on-Afghan violence.
"Here in the District Center ... it's really strange, it's hard to characterize what is happening," explains H&S Company Commander First Lieutenant Joshua Hartley, who regularly leads patrols through Musa Qala...
Positive factors at present include...

Exploding Culverts -- [Kandahar Diary - in Afghanistan]
The ambush was initiated with a large IED, planted in a road culvert...
The initiation was followed up by sustained and accurate small-arms and RPG fire to the front, middle and rear of the convoy from the high ground on both sides of the MSR. My guards de-bussed and returned fire...

Arbaki -- [Free Range International - in Afghanistan]
It looks like the new boss has convinced President Karzai to reverse his position on using tribal militias. The new name for these soon to be created Arbaki is Local Police Forces (LPF.) This is a plan which has been tried before with minimal success... I'm not sure what is being modified to make this cunning plan more effective than the last time around but I do know this much - the plan is going to fail.

Weather -- [A Major's Perspective - in Afghanistan]
Its hot here right now...but not a hot like you would think...
The wind is something to describe though. Starting in late spring it starts to pickup and everyday around 230PM until Midnight it blows. All of the sand / dust gets picked up by it turning into a swirling maelstorm of junk and dirt.
For the guys in Kandahar and the eastern portions of the country it is different. Kandahar is hot, very hot, reminds me of Iraq hot. The east of the country is hot but also mixed with humidity...

Fête Nationale -- [Field Notes: One Soldier's Perspective - in Afghanistan]
July 14: This morning we had a brief ceremony to recognize and celebrate "Fête Nationale" or French National Day. It is the official national day of France. While it is also known as Bastille Day (anniversary of storming the Bastille in 1789), it actually celebrates the anniversary of the Fête de la Fédération that occurred on 14 July 1790 (one year after the storming of the Bastille)...
This morning's ceremony featured the raising of the French flag over the ISAF Headquarters...

Goodbye "FaST" Food (and good riddance) -- [FaST Surgeon - in Afghanistan]
...I am completely for the elimination of places like BK and Pizza Hut from military installations. Not only in theaters of war, but in ALL military installations. I simply don't believe there is any reason for their existence on our bases / camps / or posts...


IRAQ

On The Iran, Iraq Border -- [J.D. Johannes - in Iraq]
In the 1980s Iran and Iraq fought to a bloody stalemate on a thin strip of desert over access to a waterway, the Shatt al Arab, that had been in dispute since the days of the Ottoman Empire.
The war was a pure fire-power battle resembling the trench warfare of World War I and the set piece charges of the American Civil War.
The tension over the Iran/Iraq border still lingers making border security one of the key missions of US Forces in Iraq.
I spent a day at the Shalamcha Port of Entry, a bustling entry point for Iranian tourists and transhipment point east of Basrah, Iraq...


WAR ON TERROR /TERRORISM

Senators Look For Smoking Gun In BP-Lockerbie Link -- [AP]
...Soon after al-Megrahi's release last year, BP acknowledged that it urged the British government to sign a prisoner transfer agreement with Libya, but stressed it didn't specify his case. It reiterated that stance this week when four U.S. Democratic senators asked the State Department to investigate whether there was a quid pro quo for the Lockerbie bomber's release.
"The evidence here may be circumstantial but if I were a prosecutor, I'd love to take this case to a jury," said New York Sen. Charles Schumer...

No Link Between BP And Lockerbie Release: UK Envoy -- [NPR news blog]
Many people for obvious reasons are more than willing to believe the worst about BP.
So when stories circulated this week that the company had lobbied for Scotland to release convicted Lockerbie bomber Abdelbaset al-Megrahi in order to secure an oil deal with Libya, many BP haters were perfectly ready to believe that.
But the United Kingdom's ambassador to the U.S., Nigel Sheinwald, says BP played no such a role in the al-Megrahi affair.
The envoy explained in an open letter to Sen. John Kerry, chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee...

UK's Cameron: Releasing Lockerbie Bomber Was Wrong -- [AP]
"As leader of opposition, I couldn't have been more clear that I thought the decision to release al-Megrahi was completely and utterly wrong," Cameron told the BBC before leaving Tuesday on his first visit as British leader to the United States, where he is expected to face questioning about the case.
In fact, Cameron's political party did more than just condemn the former Libyan intelligence agent's release. In the weeks following, Britain's Conservatives called for an inquiry into whether trade considerations played any role in the decision.
The party has changed tack, however, since taking control in May of Britain's government in a coalition. Cameron's Downing Street office said a government-commissioned inquiry was "not currently under consideration."
Cameron emphasized that the final decision to release al-Megrahi was made by Scotland's government, which holds some limited powers within the United Kingdom, and not by the previous British government headed by Prime Minister Gordon Brown.


U.S. AND OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD

As Cameron and Obama Meet, BP Will Be Top Issue -- [NY Times]
On the eve of a White House meeting with President Obama, Prime Minister David Cameron on Monday stepped into the furor over BP's lobbying for a prisoner-transfer agreement between Britain and Libya by saying he considered the release of the convicted Lockerbie bomber from a Scottish prison last year to be "completely and utterly wrong."
Ten weeks after taking office, Mr. Cameron is making his first visit to the United States as prime minister. He and Mr. Obama have a ledger of issues to discuss, including the Cameron government's decision to set an end date of 2015 for Britain's combat role in Afghanistan...

Afghanistan tops agenda for British PM's visit -- [Washington Times]
The White House on Monday said the war in Afghanistan is "first and foremost" on the agenda for Prime Minister David Cameron's first Washington visit with President Obama, but the new British leader will be walking a political tightrope over the release of the Lockerbie bomber amid questions from Congress about whether BP had a role in the decision.
The meeting Tuesday comes as operations in Afghanistan are at a pivotal point...


WELCOME HOME

Homecoming -- [Rajiv Srinivasan - home from Afghanistan]
..."All 5th Brigade Personnel bound for Joint-Base Lewis-McChord, we'll be boarding you at Gate 4 in five minutes," announced an airline representative over the intercom. A smile broke across my face. I was heading home. I was almost done. This war was over for me, and I could wash my hands of it for at least a year or two. I jumped up from my seat, gave one last grin at the run way, knowing I'd be on it in just a few moments.
"Hey Raj," called out my friend James, a West Point classmate in the brigade.
"What's going on brother?! Ready to kick this pig?!" I slapped him enthusiastically on the back.
"Rajiv...something's happened." James voice became quiet...


STRATEGY & TACTICS

ISAF, SCR Address Military ROE and Tactical Directives -- [ISAF]
"Our rules of engagement are solid, and they have not changed," said Blotz. "They are based on international law and are standardized across 47 nations, and describe the circumstances and limitations under which forces will begin or continue to engage in combat. This defines the"right and left limits" of what we will allow our forces to do as they fight."
...He added that the tactical directives tell troops what they should do while the rules of engagement instruct them what they can do. In an example he describes the difference between the two directives.
"If our troops are fired upon from a compound, under the laws of armed conflict...international law, that compound is a legal target," the general said. "However, the current tactical directive will ask our troops to consider the minimal level of force that's required to handle the situation."
...At the moment, the application of the current tactical directive is being reviewed to ensure it is consistently being used across our force.
"It is important to remember that [ISAF] military forces always retain the right to self defense, if commanders believe their forces are in danger they are required to make decisions to protect themselves," said Blotz..


SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

Raytheon's pain gun finally gets deployed in Afghanistan (update: recalled) -- [Engadget]
t's been six long years since we first got wind of the Pentagon's Active Denial System, and four since it was slated to control riots in Iraq, but though we've seen reporters zapped by the device once or twice, it seems the Air Force-approved pain gun is only now entering service in Afghanistan...
Update: Sorry folks, false alarm -- a Air Force spokesperson just informed us that though the pain gun was indeed sent to Afghanistan, it's now being returned to the US without ever seeing use.


Pain Ray Recalled From Afghanistan -- [Noah Shachtman/Danger Room]
...The system's tactical advantages are far outweighed by the strategically-massive propaganda boost that the pain ray would've given the Taliban.

The Active Denial System: the weapon that's a hot topic -- [The Telegraph (UK)]
In 2007, with the situation in Iraq at its most volatile since the invasion, US forces requested the presence of the ADS. It was never sent. Indeed, The Daily Telegraph has learnt that it has now been recalled from Afghanistan, without being fired in anger...
...Other problems come from the limitations of the device itself. Rain, snow and fog hamper its effectiveness, and it can be blocked by highly reflective materials such as aluminium foil...
Yet even if the ADS falls short, the ongoing pressure to keep the civilian body count to a minimum has made the development of similar weapons a top priority for Western forces. The ADS is only one of a raft of new non-lethal measures the US has been developing, under varying levels of secrecy...

World's Fastest Helicopter Boosts Battle Against Insurgents -- [ISAF]
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...The aircraft's value in the battle against insurgents lies in its versatile performance. The Lynx crews can track insurgent movements and watch over vulnerable areas with its sophisticated surveillance camera. This "overwatch" capability helps in the protection of the massive convoys used to re-supply front line troops in the forward operating bases.
The convoys can be vulnerable to attack as they track across vast swathes of desert from base to base but with the Lynx and its formidable weapons systems circling above, the insurgents stay away...




POLITICS

Is it time for a real GI Jane? -- [CNN]


HUMOR/SATIRE

-- []


(Need more? Dawn Patrols Archives are here.)



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The Mudville Gazette is written and produced by Greyhawk. Unless otherwise credited, the opinions expressed are those of the author, and nothing here is to be taken as representing the official position of or endorsement by the United States Department of Defense or any of its subordinate components. Furthermore, I will occasionally use satire or parody herein. The bottom line: it's my house.

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