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« The double standard fail | Main | We! »

February 16, 2010

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Like a hurricane

By Greyhawk


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Now IPCC hurricane data is questioned:

...Atlantic hurricane activity increased significantly, but the increase was counterbalanced by diminished activity in the East Pacific, where hurricane-strength storms are 50 per cent more prevalent. The West Pacific showed no significant change. Overall, the declines balance the increases.

"When you average the number of storms and their strength, it almost exactly balances." This isn't indicative of an increase in atmospheric energy manifesting itself in storms.

It's not the point of that piece, but I'd question the reliability of the Atlantic dataset, too.

In fact, I have questioned its reliability. Remember Hurricane Dennis from July, 2005? Probably not - even though news reports detailed the awesome power of the storm. Here's one account published in real-time as Dennis made landfall in the Florida panhandle:

PENSACOLA, Fla. (AP) -- Hurricane Dennis came ashore on the Florida Panhandle and Alabama coast Sunday with a 120-mph fury of blinding squalls and crashing waves that followed in the ruinous footprints of Ivan just 10 months ago.

The storm crossed land near the same state-line spot where Ivan arrived, pounding beachfronts already painfully exposed by denuded dunes, flattened neighborhoods and piles of rubble that threatened to turn into deadly missiles.
<...>
White-capped waves spewed four-story geysers over sea walls. Sideways, blinding rain blew in sheets, toppling roadside signs for hotels and gas stations. Sheriff's deputies were only responding to ''life and death'' 911 calls because it was too dangerous to be out on the streets.

That's a dramatic description, most likely you were able to imagine the scene. But in the imagination is the only place that scene occurred - the report was the product of its author's imagination.

Here's a later report, once actual "damages" could be assessed: "Some signs are down; trees are relatively intact. There is minor flooding near the McDonald's." So if you don't remember "Hurricane" Dennis - that's one reason why.

You'll find both reports (and more) here. I think the garbage in part of the equation is tragic in its own way, but at the time (and still today) I was less concerned about contaminated datasets than I was about operational impact.

Here's my post-mortem:

But what about next time? Sensational type reporting - and exaggeration of minor storms into major stories - contributes to the lack of response on the part of many to a major storm when one does come along. People who erroneously believe they've survived a cat 3-4 storm will be in for a rude surprise when a real one moves in.

As some folks probably were when Hurricane Katrina hit a few weeks after, causing the sort of damage that real hurricanes cause.

What I didn't say at the time (but could drop hints - ah, the many perils and drawbacks of pseudonymous milblogging...) was that I had 20 years experience in operational weather (not to be confused with research meteorology) as an Air Force forecaster, including most of the 1990's (a period of "greatly increased hurricane activity") at Eglin Air Force Base on the Florida Gulf Coast. I'd "ridden out" several very real storms - along with some near misses and false alarms - and published a handful of papers on operational analysis of hurricanes/tropical storms. (Geek brag: I was the first person to witness one making U.S. landfall with a "Nexrad" Doppler radar - as it was landfalling on my position.)

Sadly, among other things I learned from all that experience is that pointing out the false alarms - even in the context of "we can do better" (unlike hurricane damage, the cost of false alarms in lives, dollars, and reduced credibility can be lowered with increased research and understanding) is not a popular stance.

Of course, that "increased research" is the realm of the research meteorologist, and outside my lane. But that doesn't mean I can't sympathize with their plight:

Are your funding problems due in part to your views?

G: I can't be sure, but I think that's a lot of the reason. I have been around 50 years, so my views on this are well known. I had NOAA money for 30 some years, and then when the Clinton administration came in and Gore started directing some of the environmental stuff, I was cut off. I couldn't get any NOAA money. They turned down 13 straight proposals from me.

That's a quote from Dr. Bill Gray, who was also saying this...

With last year's hurricane season so active, and this year's looking like it will be, won't people say it's evidence of global warming?

G: The Atlantic has had more of these storms in the least 10 years or so, but in other ocean basins, activity is slightly down. Why would that be so if this is climate change? The Atlantic is a special basin? The number of major storms in the Atlantic also went way down from the middle 1960s to the middle '90s, when greenhouse gases were going up.

Why is there scientific support for the idea?

G: So many people have a vested interest in this global-warming thing - all these big labs and research and stuff. The idea is to frighten the public, to get money to study it more...

...back in 2005.




Posted by Greyhawk / February 16, 2010 10:07 AM | Permalink

5 Comments

What I didn't say at the time (but could drop hints - ah, the many perils and drawbacks of pseudonymous milblogging...) was that I had 20 years experience in operational weather (not to be confused with research meteorology) as an Air Force forecaster, including most of the 1990's (a period of "greatly increased hurricane activity") at Eglin Air Force Base on the Florida Gulf Coast.

You're a WEATHERDUDE? Well no wonder you're so scary!

LOL. (I could have said tall). Mrs. G must be a saint to live with a guy who's vocation has more to do with looking outside and telling her whether it will rain today or not, or whether the Earth is warming or not. Your present avocation notwithstanding, you'd have been pretty darn useful in debunking AGW on this website if you'd posted more on it. LOL. I am just saying that you never cease to amaze me.

Have a wonderful day, you old Grey Geek.

Subsunk

Looking outside? Hey - as a weather dude I was involved in planning all outdoor activities for the Army and Air Force - but I was a participant, too. :)

I didn't mean to imply otherwise, Oh Sainted Grey Father. However, the fact that weather is your forte would lead one to believe you have significant opinions and background on the Great Anthropogenic Global Warming Boondoggle of the Century, and I was just wondering if you ever had occasion to write much on the subject. I figured you knew weather, even if it was just to get rained on in Bosnia, or steam dried in Baghdad, or look outside when Mrs G asked whether she was gonna be able to see her hand afore her face that day.....

Have a good week, good sir.

Subsunk

Arthroscopic Glutal Warnings? What? Never heard of it... ;)

But check the links in the "but could drop hints" line in the post.

Subsunk, you are the man! You gotta get to the milblgs conference this year.

Arthroscopic Glutal Warnings. LOL. You need new glasses AND a hearing aid. Me too. I'm far ahead of you.

Sorry, son. Not gonna happen this year either. I've got a lot of personal work to do. Gotta make some money to pay my family and bills. If I was smarter, I'd make money off of blogging. Crazy Blog Money, like Ace says, or at least a modicum of blog money like Jim Hanson and Matt Burden can make. But those guys and you do so much better writing than I would anyway. I enjoy reading your posts way more than most. Lex is a keeper for me too, even if you both are avaiators at heart.

Keep up the good work, GreyHawk. Best to the Missus.

Subsunk

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November 26, 2010


America@war
[Greyhawk]
I think anyone who's ever pondered the "comment" option - once only available on blogs and bulletin boards, now ubiquitous on almost any web site - will appreciate this:
The so-called faculty of writing is not so much a faculty of writing as it is a faculty of thinking. When a man says, "I have an idea but I can't express it"; that man hasn't an idea but merely a vague feeling. If a man has a feeling of that kind, and will sit down for a half an hour and persistently try to put into writing what he feels, the probabilities are at least 90 percent that he will either be able to record it, or else realize that he has no idea at all. In either case, he will do himself a benefit.

That's wisdom from the past, captured for posterity at the US Naval Institute, shared via the web on the institute's 137th anniversary.

From their about page:

The Naval Institute shall remain

INDEPENDENT - A non-profit member association, with no government support, that does not lobby for special interests;

NON-PARTISAN - An independent, professional military association with a mission, goals and objectives that transcend political affiliations; and shall encourage

IDEAS - Through its respected journals Proceedings and Naval History, its conferences, its books and its online content, in support of those who serve.

"The Naval Institute has three core activities," among them, History and Preservation:

The Naval Institute also has recently introduced Americans at War, a living history of Americans at war in their own words and from their own experiences. These 90-second vignettes convey powerful stories of inspiration, pride, and patriotism.

Take a look at the collection, and you'll see it's not limited to accounts from those who served on ships at sea, members of the other branches are well-represented.

I'm fortunate to have met USNI's Mary Ripley, she's responsible for the institute's oral history program (and she's the daughter of the late John Ripley, whose story is told here). She also deserves much credit for their blog. ("We're not the Navy nor any government agency. Blog and comment freely.") We met at a milblog conference - Mary knew (and I would come to realize) that milbloggers are the 21st-century version of exactly what the US Naval Institute is all about. Once that light bulb came on in my head, I mentioned a vague idea for a project to her - milblogs as the 21st century oral history that they are.

"Put that in writing," she said (of course - see first paragraph above!) - and here's part of the result.

Shortly after the first tent was pitched by the American military in Iraq a wire was connected to a computer therein, and the internet was available to a generation of Americans at war - many of whom had grown up online. From that point on, at any given moment, somewhere in Iraq a Soldier, Sailor, Airman or Marine was at a keyboard sharing the events of his or her day with the folks back home. While most would simply fire off an email, others took advantage of the (then) relatively new online blogging platforms to post their thoughts and experiences for the entire world to see. The milblog was born - and from that moment to this stories detailing everything from the most mundane aspects of camp life to intense combat action (often described within hours of the event) have been available on the web...

And et cetera - but since you're reading this on a milblog, you probably knew that. And you know that milblogs aren't just blogs written by troops at war, that many friends, family members, and supporters likewise documented their story of America at war online in near-real time, as those stories developed.

The diversity in membership of that group is broad, the one thing we all have in common is the impulse to make sense of the seemingly senseless, and communicate the tale - for each of us that impulse was strong enough to overcome whatever barriers prevent the vast majority of people from doing the same. Everyone at some point has some vague idea they believe should be shared - we were the people who, from some combination of internal and external urging, found and spent those many half hours persistently trying to write it down.

*****

But where will all that be in another 137 years? Or five or ten, for that matter. That's something I've asked myself since at least 2004 - when I wrote this:

Closing Blogs is nothing new. So many site's owners just give up on their own. They come and go, you know, these MilBloggers do. Like any other sort of blogger. Many post in the lonely down hours far from home, spill their guts for the world, then abandon their spots when the tour of duty is up. They have lives again somewhere in the world, and no need to share the details. So it goes.

Many are truly gone - no site left at all. "The page cannot be found." Other blogs remain, like abandoned defensive positions in shifting desert sands.

Membership in the ghost battalion has grown in the years since, and an ever growing majority of those abandoned-but-still-standing sites are vanishing. Have you checked out Lt Smash's site lately? How about Sgt Hook's? If you're a long-time milblog reader you know the first widely-read milblog from Operation Iraq Freedom and the first widely-read milblog from Afghanistan are both gone from the web. If you're a relative newcomer to this world you may never even have heard of them - or the dozens upon dozens of others who carried forth the standard they set down.

If you have a vague notion that something should be done about that, (a notion I've heard expressed more than once...) then you and I and the good folks at the US Naval Institute are in agreement. Preserving the history documented by the milbloggers is just one of the goals of the milblog project, the once-vague idea that we're now making real.

And it's a big idea, if I say so myself - too big to explain in one simple blog post, so stand by for more. Likewise, it's too big a task to be accomplished by just one person. So if you're a milblogger (and exactly what is a milblogger? is a topic for much further discussion on its own) I'm asking for your help. All I'll really need is just a little bit (maybe just one or two of those half hours...) of your time, and your willingness to tell the tale.

We've already made history, it's time to save it.

(More to follow...)




Posted 4:02 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) |

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The Mudville Gazette is the on-line voice of an American warrior and his wife who stands by him. They prefer to see peaceful change render force of arms unnecessary. Until that day they stand fast with those who struggle for freedom, strike for reason, and pray for a better tomorrow.
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  • Subsunk: Arthroscopic Glutal Warnings. LOL. You need new glasses AND a read more
  • Greyhawk: Arthroscopic Glutal Warnings? What? Never heard of it... ;) But read more
  • Subsunk: I didn't mean to imply otherwise, Oh Sainted Grey Father. read more
  • Greyhawk: Looking outside? Hey - as a weather dude I was read more
  • Subsunk: What I didn't say at the time (but could drop read more

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The Mudville Gazette is written and produced by Greyhawk, who recently retired from 24 years of active duty in the US military, but will maintain this disclaimer: Unless otherwise credited, the opinions expressed are those of the author, and nothing here is to be taken as representing the official position of or endorsement by the United States Department of Defense or any of its subordinate components.

Furthermore, I will occasionally use satire or parody herein. The bottom line: it's my house.

I like having visitors to my house. I hope you are entertained. I fight for your right to free speech, and am thrilled when you exercise said rights here. Comments and e-mails are welcome, but all such communication is to be assumed to be 1)the original work of any who initiate said communication and 2)the property of the Mudville Gazette, with free use granted thereto for publication in electronic or written form. If you do NOT wish to have your message posted, write "CONFIDENTIAL" in the subject line of your email.

Original content copyright © 2003 - 2011 by Greyhawk. Fair, not-for-profit use of said material by others is encouraged, as long as acknowledgement and credit is given, to include the url of the original source post. Other arrangements can be made as needed.

Contact: greyhawk at mudvillegazette dot com

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*****

Tending Distant
Fires


Far from hearth and home, watching
Cold alone but not alone
On distant shore and only wanting
Safe return and little more

What tales we'll tell
When that time comes
When tales can be told

When things grim
Seem far away
When other fires go cold

Some distant sunset, vision fading
Memories remain
And tired eyes gaze 'pon folded flags
While distant drums beat their refrain

Saluting fallen friends whose names
And youth will never fade
Here's to those on other shores,
for them live well, the price is paid

- Greyhawk,
Baghdad,
December 2004