The only good Muslims

With a nod to an old axiom of uncertain origin, my title invokes what appears to be al Qaeda's philosophy on their fellow travelers in Islam: kill 'em all, let God sort 'em out.

Can convincing enough people of that help win what we used to call the war on terror? Perhaps - but perhaps not in Afghanistan. There's a more important battle to be fought there...

Bill Roggio: "The Combating Terrorism Center won a rare victory in the information war".

Perhaps they did. Bill's point is that al Qaeda has been forced to respond to a damning study released by the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point: Deadly Vanguards: A Study of al‐Qa'ida's Violence Against Muslims. The report concludes that "the vast majority of al‐Qa'ida's victims are Muslims: the analysis here shows that only 15% of the fatalities resulting from al‐Qa'ida attacks between 2004 and 2008 were Westerners."

A notable figure, and one with potential impact, hence al Qaeda's response. (Gadahn's video is titled "The Mujahideen Don't Target Muslims".) As for victory, Bill's own Long War Journal acknowledges the difficulty in getting the word out:

The story has already received some limited coverage by a few Arabic news outlets, including Al Quds, the largest Palestinian daily, as well as the Kuwaiti newspaper Al Jarida, which printed the story complete with the CTC's headline, "Vanguard of Death." It's a good start, but for this story to have the impact it deserves, it will need to be picked up by many more (and bigger) Arabic-language news outlets, including Al Jazeera.

Clearly, he does not regard the peace-loving citizens as innocent. He is explicitly saying they are guilty. They have betrayed the faith and the blood of countless Muslims is on their hands.

"At least the quotes are there to let readers see how embarrassingly stupid it is," she adds.

And here's one of the quotes: "We express our condolences to the families of the Muslim men, women and children killed in these criminal acts," he said in the video. "And we ask Allah to have mercy on those killed and accept them as shohadaa (martyrs)."

CNN offers no quotes from the CTC report that prompted the response - not even a mention of its existence or a hint of its findings. That's an unfortunate omission, as this one (emphasis added) seems essential to the discussion:

Al‐Qa'ida represents itself as the vanguard of the Muslim community, committed to upholding Islamic values and defending Muslim people against Western forces, but its behavior represents a callous attitude toward the lives of those the group claims to protect. Al‐Qa'ida absolves responsibility for the deaths of Muslims by claiming that they are either martyrs or apostates. The definition of apostate, however, varies considerably. Al‐Qa'ida considers any Muslim that impedes their struggle by working with the West or an unfriendly regime as an apostate, and therefore a legitimate target. This includes Muslims serving in the armed forces, serving as police officers, and even those occupying civilian jobs. Al‐Qa'ida makes convenient use of this designation to justify its indiscriminate use of violence.

"Those who have made the foolish decision to stand with America and its allies in their losing war against Islam ... you have not only betrayed Islam and Muslims and left the fold of faith, but you have also caused the destabilization of nations and the displacement ... of thousands of weak and oppressed people," Gadahn said.

"The blood of countless Muslims is on your hands," he continued. The meaning is clear - al Qaeda plans on doing a lot of Muslim killing in the future; their response is not a refutation of the CTC study, it is a reinforcement of its findings.

Footnote from the Department of Deja-vu: If much of the above sounds somehow familiar, think back to the late summer of 2006. Al Qaeda's long-running campaign of ultra-violence in Iraq (from The Management of Savagery: Brutal killings must be explained in a manner that justifies the atrocity; Public opinion must be turned against the enemy soldiers; Al Qaeda should be seen as the solution to the chaos/savagery - even as they foment more such atrocities) was beginning to pay off. In Iraq, violence was causing retaliatory violence; in the United States, the media had designated this a "civil war". In the midst of an election year in which they hoped to gain control of Congress Democrats were calling for American withdrawal based (in part) on the it's not our civil war hypothesis.

But in Anbar Province a movement had begun. Later it would be known as the "Awakening" - but at the time it was just getting underway (in the wake of the death of al Qaeda in Iraq leader Abu Musab al Zarqawi). Anbar tribal leaders were beginning to push back against the wanton brutality practiced by the "mujahideen" in their midst; American forces were beginning to facilitate that "pushback".

A tipping point had been reached - and the new leader of al Qaeda in Iraq knew it and feared it. He released a message to the sheiks of Anbar - return to the fold or die.

"I say to those traitors in this blessed month, the month of pardon and forgiveness," al-Muhajir wrote, "that we are declaring a general pardon for all of them, forgiving them for our blood that was spilled by your hands and your treachery. We welcome you once again. Return to your religion and homeland before we defeat you, and you will have peace and security. We will not touch you but with kindness. You must first declare your sincere repentance in front of your tribes and families and inform us by whatever means, lest we make a mistake [and kill you]. You should put your hands in the hands of your brothers and sons, the mujahideen, for peace and security to return to our homes and expel the invader from our midst in this blessed month."

The message was clear: "don't bet your future on the Americans" - and in an election year with surging Democrats pledging withdrawal it most definitely had some level of appeal.

The rest, of course, is history - a history that the al Qaeda leadership understands far better than the average CNN viewer. The people of Iraq and Afghanistan don't need CNN to tell them who is more likely to kill them - they know. On the other hand many Americans have bought in to the al Qaeda version of the story; convincing a few of them at this point in time that it's actually a falsehood could be something of a victory.

But a hollow one, indeed - the battle now is to convince the Afghan people that we are not going to leave them to their fates at the hands of those they already know very well - and it's a battle we're losing. "They don't want to trust us because they don't think we're going to be here for the long haul," a young American Marine in southern Afghanistan said recently.

If he can figure out a way to unfuck that, we win.