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« We Were Soldiers | Main | More Zero Tolerance »

November 14, 2009

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War Costs Money

By Greyhawk

...that's why a "senior administration official, who requested anonymity in order to reflect the details and tone of confidential deliberations, said these concerns had added to the president's insistence at a White House meeting on Wednesday that each military option include the quickest possible exit strategy."

Exit strategy is a fine talking point, clearly it polled well among Democrats back in 2006 and '07 - and getting Democrats to support the war in the US is reportedly an Obama admin goal. (Republicans are reliably - if increasingly reluctantly - on board. For now.) That's domestic politics, but in war your willingness to quit is something you don't advertise, among other reasons because it sends enemies and allies (and those still choosing sides) alike a message that you aren't really serious. For one of those groups it's also inspiring.

Which is why Gates has already signaled his concerns. Once again.


Update: And I just got around to reading the latest from Kilcullen:

Kilcullen expressed concern that Obama might deny McChrystal the 40,000 extra troops and split the difference between the four options, the kind of fudge common in domestic politics.

"Time is running out for us to make a decision. We can either put in enough troops to control the environment or we can credibly communicate our intention to leave. Either could work. Splitting the difference is not the way to go," Kilcullen said.

"It feels to me that all these options are dangerously close to the middle ground and we have to consider whether the middle ground is a good place to be. The middle ground is a good place on domestic issues, but not on strategy. You either commit to D-Day and invade the continent or you get Suez. Half-measures end up with Suez. Do it or not do it."
<...>
"I do think, though, the policy process of this administration this year has been, shall we say, messy and this, the latest incident [the leaked diplomatic cables], underlines how messy it has been, and I think that is problematic.

"It sends a message of indecision and uncertainty which has an effect on allies, and has a huge effect on the British political debate and has huge impact on the Afghans."

"Leaks" are part of the game - nothing leaks that isn't approved, and there have been far too many to believe otherwise. (Note the Gates story is purportedly about leaks, too.) But while normally I'd experience some satisfaction in seeing I'm not the only one thinking what I'm thinking it's diminished completely by the fact that I'd prefer to think everything I wrote above was wrong.

Send half the needed troops and advertise an "exit strategy". Hella plan. I've learned to never underestimate what the men and women of the American military can do, but that's going to get an awful lot of them killed.


Next: War costs money (2).


Posted by Greyhawk / November 14, 2009 7:03 PM | Permalink

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3 Comments

For a politico...he has to be seen to answering those questions. At least if he is going to keep the leftards on board.

Nothing really changes if he decides today or next month to deploy more troops to Afghanistan. The way the rotations will work out no one will hit the ground until February or March anyway. The first few brigades of an 'Afghan Surge' already have the heads up.

Any president is the national salesmen. I don't like this one but I understand the necessity to sell it to the leftards.

The plan for Afghanistan is going to go like Iraq...dramatically increase the training resources and dramatically increase the size of the Afghan Security Forces until the killing gets to a level they can handle it on their own.

How one sells the Bush 'Iraq Surge' plan to those still convinced it can't work is President Obama's problem.

"The way the rotations will work out no one will hit the ground until February or March anyway."

- Yes. And I agree with what you're saying re: the Afghan surge all around. I'm not certain McChrystal will get what he asked for - I am certain that whatever he gets will be described as all he asked for. One of last weekend's "leaks" already demonstrated that.

And I agree that the president feels he has to "sell" that to reluctant Dems. Certain members of Congress from devout anti-war districts are probably pressuring hard for that.

Television and newspaper reporters are already doing their part for the PR effort, but the problem comes from using a message al Qaeda and the Taliban would appreciate even more than Democrats as the sales pitch. In fact the avowed anti-war wing of that party isn't any more likely to accept it than al Qaeda members are likely to convert to Judaism.

Beyond that, it's a message that won't convince those "on the fence" (in Afghanistan, Pakistan, the US and NATO countries) to come down on our side.

The pieces I'm focused on is General Odierno et al were pretty firm about holding at 12 BCT's in Iraq until after the Iraqi Elections. Then without fanfare it became apparent that he was going to cut to 10 brigades by the Iraqi elections. Effectively freeing up two brigades to go into the Afghan rotation pool.

So that adds 2 brigades + support = 20,000 troops shifted to the Afghan deployment pool.

For anything beyond 20K troops shifted to Afghanistan one has to assume the continued draw down of troops in Iraq will go to plan. Or be willing to go back to 15 months deployments.

As the Iraqi elections draw closer a more informed decision can be made....just a few weeks ago there wasn't even a firm date for the Iraqi elections.

I agree about the mixed messages be communicated. It's not particularly useful.

Of course protesters in the street send their own messages and various congree critters threatening to defund various efforts(and coming close to having the votes) also has sent mixed messages.

Absent trying people for treason and sedition I'm not sure we can do anything about it other then attempt to 'manage' dissent.

Sometimes a way to manage dissent is to publicly acknowledge peoples concerns and anguish over a solution. Even if no solution is found it tends to make people feel better. Bill Clinton was a master of "Feel your pain".


Leave a comment

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July 19, 2010


Dawn Patrol 07/19/2010
[Greyhawk]

Welcome to the Dawn Patrol, our ongoing roundup of information on war and other topics - from the MilBlogs and other sources around the world.

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Always updating - refresh for updates.

AFGHANISTAN

Prospects for stability in Musa Qala: challenges and possible solutions -- [Bill Ardolino /Long War Journal - in Afghanistan]
Part 3 in a three-part series on Musa Qala. For Part 1, see The checkered history of Musa Qala; for Part 2, see US Marines battle the Taliban for control of Musa Qala.
..."To the west, there are more 'little-t Taliban,' mostly in it for the money and drug smuggling," explains McDowell. "The farther east of the line you go, the more you see 'capital-T Taliban,' the ideologues who are affiliated with the Qetta Shura."
...A third, nebulous category of enemy also exists: violence is often tied to inscrutable local business interests, politics, and simple crime, especially in cases of Afghan-on-Afghan violence.
"Here in the District Center ... it's really strange, it's hard to characterize what is happening," explains H&S Company Commander First Lieutenant Joshua Hartley, who regularly leads patrols through Musa Qala...
Positive factors at present include...

Exploding Culverts -- [Kandahar Diary - in Afghanistan]
The ambush was initiated with a large IED, planted in a road culvert...
The initiation was followed up by sustained and accurate small-arms and RPG fire to the front, middle and rear of the convoy from the high ground on both sides of the MSR. My guards de-bussed and returned fire...

Arbaki -- [Free Range International - in Afghanistan]
It looks like the new boss has convinced President Karzai to reverse his position on using tribal militias. The new name for these soon to be created Arbaki is Local Police Forces (LPF.) This is a plan which has been tried before with minimal success... I'm not sure what is being modified to make this cunning plan more effective than the last time around but I do know this much - the plan is going to fail.

Weather -- [A Major's Perspective - in Afghanistan]
Its hot here right now...but not a hot like you would think...
The wind is something to describe though. Starting in late spring it starts to pickup and everyday around 230PM until Midnight it blows. All of the sand / dust gets picked up by it turning into a swirling maelstorm of junk and dirt.
For the guys in Kandahar and the eastern portions of the country it is different. Kandahar is hot, very hot, reminds me of Iraq hot. The east of the country is hot but also mixed with humidity...

Fête Nationale -- [Field Notes: One Soldier's Perspective - in Afghanistan]
July 14: This morning we had a brief ceremony to recognize and celebrate "Fête Nationale" or French National Day. It is the official national day of France. While it is also known as Bastille Day (anniversary of storming the Bastille in 1789), it actually celebrates the anniversary of the Fête de la Fédération that occurred on 14 July 1790 (one year after the storming of the Bastille)...
This morning's ceremony featured the raising of the French flag over the ISAF Headquarters...

Goodbye "FaST" Food (and good riddance) -- [FaST Surgeon - in Afghanistan]
...I am completely for the elimination of places like BK and Pizza Hut from military installations. Not only in theaters of war, but in ALL military installations. I simply don't believe there is any reason for their existence on our bases / camps / or posts...


IRAQ

On The Iran, Iraq Border -- [J.D. Johannes - in Iraq]
In the 1980s Iran and Iraq fought to a bloody stalemate on a thin strip of desert over access to a waterway, the Shatt al Arab, that had been in dispute since the days of the Ottoman Empire.
The war was a pure fire-power battle resembling the trench warfare of World War I and the set piece charges of the American Civil War.
The tension over the Iran/Iraq border still lingers making border security one of the key missions of US Forces in Iraq.
I spent a day at the Shalamcha Port of Entry, a bustling entry point for Iranian tourists and transhipment point east of Basrah, Iraq...


WAR ON TERROR /TERRORISM

Senators Look For Smoking Gun In BP-Lockerbie Link -- [AP]
...Soon after al-Megrahi's release last year, BP acknowledged that it urged the British government to sign a prisoner transfer agreement with Libya, but stressed it didn't specify his case. It reiterated that stance this week when four U.S. Democratic senators asked the State Department to investigate whether there was a quid pro quo for the Lockerbie bomber's release.
"The evidence here may be circumstantial but if I were a prosecutor, I'd love to take this case to a jury," said New York Sen. Charles Schumer...

No Link Between BP And Lockerbie Release: UK Envoy -- [NPR news blog]
Many people for obvious reasons are more than willing to believe the worst about BP.
So when stories circulated this week that the company had lobbied for Scotland to release convicted Lockerbie bomber Abdelbaset al-Megrahi in order to secure an oil deal with Libya, many BP haters were perfectly ready to believe that.
But the United Kingdom's ambassador to the U.S., Nigel Sheinwald, says BP played no such a role in the al-Megrahi affair.
The envoy explained in an open letter to Sen. John Kerry, chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee...

UK's Cameron: Releasing Lockerbie Bomber Was Wrong -- [AP]
"As leader of opposition, I couldn't have been more clear that I thought the decision to release al-Megrahi was completely and utterly wrong," Cameron told the BBC before leaving Tuesday on his first visit as British leader to the United States, where he is expected to face questioning about the case.
In fact, Cameron's political party did more than just condemn the former Libyan intelligence agent's release. In the weeks following, Britain's Conservatives called for an inquiry into whether trade considerations played any role in the decision.
The party has changed tack, however, since taking control in May of Britain's government in a coalition. Cameron's Downing Street office said a government-commissioned inquiry was "not currently under consideration."
Cameron emphasized that the final decision to release al-Megrahi was made by Scotland's government, which holds some limited powers within the United Kingdom, and not by the previous British government headed by Prime Minister Gordon Brown.


U.S. AND OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD

As Cameron and Obama Meet, BP Will Be Top Issue -- [NY Times]
On the eve of a White House meeting with President Obama, Prime Minister David Cameron on Monday stepped into the furor over BP's lobbying for a prisoner-transfer agreement between Britain and Libya by saying he considered the release of the convicted Lockerbie bomber from a Scottish prison last year to be "completely and utterly wrong."
Ten weeks after taking office, Mr. Cameron is making his first visit to the United States as prime minister. He and Mr. Obama have a ledger of issues to discuss, including the Cameron government's decision to set an end date of 2015 for Britain's combat role in Afghanistan...

Afghanistan tops agenda for British PM's visit -- [Washington Times]
The White House on Monday said the war in Afghanistan is "first and foremost" on the agenda for Prime Minister David Cameron's first Washington visit with President Obama, but the new British leader will be walking a political tightrope over the release of the Lockerbie bomber amid questions from Congress about whether BP had a role in the decision.
The meeting Tuesday comes as operations in Afghanistan are at a pivotal point...


WELCOME HOME

Homecoming -- [Rajiv Srinivasan - home from Afghanistan]
..."All 5th Brigade Personnel bound for Joint-Base Lewis-McChord, we'll be boarding you at Gate 4 in five minutes," announced an airline representative over the intercom. A smile broke across my face. I was heading home. I was almost done. This war was over for me, and I could wash my hands of it for at least a year or two. I jumped up from my seat, gave one last grin at the run way, knowing I'd be on it in just a few moments.
"Hey Raj," called out my friend James, a West Point classmate in the brigade.
"What's going on brother?! Ready to kick this pig?!" I slapped him enthusiastically on the back.
"Rajiv...something's happened." James voice became quiet...


STRATEGY & TACTICS

ISAF, SCR Address Military ROE and Tactical Directives -- [ISAF]
"Our rules of engagement are solid, and they have not changed," said Blotz. "They are based on international law and are standardized across 47 nations, and describe the circumstances and limitations under which forces will begin or continue to engage in combat. This defines the"right and left limits" of what we will allow our forces to do as they fight."
...He added that the tactical directives tell troops what they should do while the rules of engagement instruct them what they can do. In an example he describes the difference between the two directives.
"If our troops are fired upon from a compound, under the laws of armed conflict...international law, that compound is a legal target," the general said. "However, the current tactical directive will ask our troops to consider the minimal level of force that's required to handle the situation."
...At the moment, the application of the current tactical directive is being reviewed to ensure it is consistently being used across our force.
"It is important to remember that [ISAF] military forces always retain the right to self defense, if commanders believe their forces are in danger they are required to make decisions to protect themselves," said Blotz..


SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

Raytheon's pain gun finally gets deployed in Afghanistan (update: recalled) -- [Engadget]
t's been six long years since we first got wind of the Pentagon's Active Denial System, and four since it was slated to control riots in Iraq, but though we've seen reporters zapped by the device once or twice, it seems the Air Force-approved pain gun is only now entering service in Afghanistan...
Update: Sorry folks, false alarm -- a Air Force spokesperson just informed us that though the pain gun was indeed sent to Afghanistan, it's now being returned to the US without ever seeing use.


Pain Ray Recalled From Afghanistan -- [Noah Shachtman/Danger Room]
...The system's tactical advantages are far outweighed by the strategically-massive propaganda boost that the pain ray would've given the Taliban.

The Active Denial System: the weapon that's a hot topic -- [The Telegraph (UK)]
In 2007, with the situation in Iraq at its most volatile since the invasion, US forces requested the presence of the ADS. It was never sent. Indeed, The Daily Telegraph has learnt that it has now been recalled from Afghanistan, without being fired in anger...
...Other problems come from the limitations of the device itself. Rain, snow and fog hamper its effectiveness, and it can be blocked by highly reflective materials such as aluminium foil...
Yet even if the ADS falls short, the ongoing pressure to keep the civilian body count to a minimum has made the development of similar weapons a top priority for Western forces. The ADS is only one of a raft of new non-lethal measures the US has been developing, under varying levels of secrecy...

World's Fastest Helicopter Boosts Battle Against Insurgents -- [ISAF]
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...The aircraft's value in the battle against insurgents lies in its versatile performance. The Lynx crews can track insurgent movements and watch over vulnerable areas with its sophisticated surveillance camera. This "overwatch" capability helps in the protection of the massive convoys used to re-supply front line troops in the forward operating bases.
The convoys can be vulnerable to attack as they track across vast swathes of desert from base to base but with the Lynx and its formidable weapons systems circling above, the insurgents stay away...




POLITICS

Is it time for a real GI Jane? -- [CNN]


HUMOR/SATIRE

-- []


(Need more? Dawn Patrols Archives are here.)



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The Mudville Gazette is the on-line voice of an American warrior and his wife who stands by him. They prefer to see peaceful change render force of arms unnecessary. Until that day they stand fast with those who struggle for freedom, strike for reason, and pray for a better tomorrow.
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The Mudville Gazette is written and produced by Greyhawk. Unless otherwise credited, the opinions expressed are those of the author, and nothing here is to be taken as representing the official position of or endorsement by the United States Department of Defense or any of its subordinate components. Furthermore, I will occasionally use satire or parody herein. The bottom line: it's my house.

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