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October 2, 2009

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American Agora

By Greyhawk

April 2009, the Milblgs Conference. During this panel we're (L-R Bill Roggio, Bill Nagle, and Andrew Exum, the guy in the corner is me) discussing how the strategy to be used during "the surge" in Iraq was presented in public military-related web sites (specifically in Small Wars Journal) as part of a campaign (see Kilcullen's contribution here) to "get the word out" regarding our intentions for Iraq - and whether any similar outreach efforts might be expected regarding Afghanistan. (All something of a follow-on to this discussion). To put this in its proper time frame, the conference was weeks after the first "Afghan troop surge" had been announced, but the ink was hardly dry on the administration's White Paper defining our approach to Af/Pak, and the announcement of General McKiernan's replacement by General McChrystal as commander of forces was over a month away.


For those without video capability (or having trouble with the sound quality in that version) here's how that portion of the discussion concluded:

Exum: We've got a strategy, we just don't have many good choices to operationalize it...

Roggio: Yes...

Me: There was a Bush-era document that was our "Path to Victory in Iraq" that laid out from the perspective from on high... the White Paper strikes me as a similar document to that - this is what we intend, these are our goals...

You may have detected a note of skepticism in my voice regarding the existence of a solid strategy, if so I assure you I was experiencing it at the time - the White Paper was vague, or at least open to interpretation. In one regard that's exactly what guidance from that level should be. Likewise, it should be clear that no one would make any claim that national strategy should be determined in weblogs, military-related or not. The name I chose for that panel - The New Media Agora, reflected this:

The Agora (Greek: Ἀγορά, Agorá) was an open "place of assembly" in ancient Greek city-states. Early in Greek history (900s-700s BCE), free-born male land-owners who were citizens would gather in the agora for military duty or to hear statements of the ruling king or council.

...in short, a marketplace of ideas where such things are merely discussed, and certainly not a decision-making body.

But since then, Exum himself (well-qualified for numerous reasons not including "has weblog") participated in General McChrystal's effort to operationalize that strategy - to bring it down to the next (boots-on-ground) level. In watching all that develop, many of my reservations about whether we had a strategy (and whether that strategy could be operationalized) diminished - at least to the point that when evaluating alternatives this one appeared to be the obvious next step to the goal. Given the unavoidable unknowns inherent in any plan, hindsight is the ultimate - and only - final arbiter of success. But beyond that, we were committed to this path - in fact we were well along it - and available time was a limiting factor. While all of that was part of the consideration, expedience aside the plan remains worthy on merits.

So, like Andrew, I'm a bit surprised by much of what I read these days. And as someone with less of an investment in the issue I admire his restraint.

The discussion is ongoing, of course. Nothing is decided. We may stick to the plan. If we're going to try something else for a few weeks then perhaps once we've heard about it we'll be able to embrace that for those weeks, too. Perhaps we'll even have time to try out something different after that. And if you detect a note of skepticism in my writing I assure you I'm experiencing it once again.

Is there some lesson to be learned in all that? Certainly. A great reminder that no matter how hard you work, no matter what you think you know, and regardless of your experience or commitment - from time to time you'll run up against this sort of argument:


...and discover that maybe this was what it really meant all along:


At least, this humble blogger begins to wonder if it might be so.


Elsewhere in the Agora:

Neptunus Lex:"So much for the moral high ground in President Obama's "war of necessity"".

Jules Crittenden: "Good news first. Obama's actually met with his Afghan War commander. He managed to squeeze in a meeting with McChrystal on the tarmac at Copenhagen, while nursing his IOC hangover". (Hopefully the President wasn't in too bad of a mood.)

Spencer Ackerman: "My fellow progressives can find reasons to criticize McChrystal, and I have no doubt they will. I will also find reason to criticize McChrystal. But it should be placed on the balance sheet that no serving military commander has ever gone this far..." (See also here and here.)

Robert Haddick: "Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell made it clear that the objective of President Obama's Afghanistan policy - "to disrupt, dismantle and destroy al Qaeda" - remains unchanged. According to Morrell, what is currently open for discussion among Obama senior advisers is "whether or not counterinsurgency is still the preferred means of achieving that end.""

Major Mehar Omar Khan: "No sane citizen of our world, let alone a Pakistani infantry officer who may soon end up being another name on an ever-growing list of the fallen soldiers in the war against terror, enjoys thinking about the painful possibility of our world's greatest military power and history's most inspiring nation retreating in the face of an onslaught by Kalashnikov-wielding bearded barbarians riding on the back of motorcycles, hungry horses and perspiring mules."

That last might be the quote of the week. Many folks are talking a lot - but in spite of all that competition, I think that message from a guest in the American Agora is hard to top.


Posted by Greyhawk / October 2, 2009 5:20 PM | Permalink

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2 Comments

Ur comments section hates me :)

Where do my comments go? Srsly?

Oh, well. As to the last quote, the most interesting thing to me was the commenter 'omar' who showed up in the comments section at SWJ and kind of implied, snarkily, that the new strategy proposed by Maj Khan could easily be 'infiltrated' by the ISI, or used toward Pakistani interests. Standard India-Pakistan paranoia, or a legitimate concern?

I don't know about any of that, specifically, but the exhange (the article and the snarky comment) underscored, to me, the tensions on the subcontinent. It was a bit amusing to see the more polite and measured SWJ comments, and then the one I pointed to above. It's a tough part of the world, all right, everyone's got an agenda, but this particular crowd would know that better than anyone else, wouldn't it?

Sorry - comments have been a problem I've been putting off tackling since the last software upgrade. Once they're entered, processing is slow. I've got to get under the hood on that. At the same time, another software upgrade awaits.

As to motive, I don't think anyone's immune to charges of hidden agenda. The best inoculation one can have against that is apply familiarity with the agendas of the various players to knowledge of topic based on personal experience and sort things from there.

As for the quote, I don't care what the motive is behind the source, that's a good quote. :)

Leave a comment

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July 19, 2010


Dawn Patrol 07/19/2010
[Greyhawk]

Welcome to the Dawn Patrol, our ongoing roundup of information on war and other topics - from the MilBlogs and other sources around the world.

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Always updating - refresh for updates.

AFGHANISTAN

Prospects for stability in Musa Qala: challenges and possible solutions -- [Bill Ardolino /Long War Journal - in Afghanistan]
Part 3 in a three-part series on Musa Qala. For Part 1, see The checkered history of Musa Qala; for Part 2, see US Marines battle the Taliban for control of Musa Qala.
..."To the west, there are more 'little-t Taliban,' mostly in it for the money and drug smuggling," explains McDowell. "The farther east of the line you go, the more you see 'capital-T Taliban,' the ideologues who are affiliated with the Qetta Shura."
...A third, nebulous category of enemy also exists: violence is often tied to inscrutable local business interests, politics, and simple crime, especially in cases of Afghan-on-Afghan violence.
"Here in the District Center ... it's really strange, it's hard to characterize what is happening," explains H&S Company Commander First Lieutenant Joshua Hartley, who regularly leads patrols through Musa Qala...
Positive factors at present include...

Exploding Culverts -- [Kandahar Diary - in Afghanistan]
The ambush was initiated with a large IED, planted in a road culvert...
The initiation was followed up by sustained and accurate small-arms and RPG fire to the front, middle and rear of the convoy from the high ground on both sides of the MSR. My guards de-bussed and returned fire...

Arbaki -- [Free Range International - in Afghanistan]
It looks like the new boss has convinced President Karzai to reverse his position on using tribal militias. The new name for these soon to be created Arbaki is Local Police Forces (LPF.) This is a plan which has been tried before with minimal success... I'm not sure what is being modified to make this cunning plan more effective than the last time around but I do know this much - the plan is going to fail.

Weather -- [A Major's Perspective - in Afghanistan]
Its hot here right now...but not a hot like you would think...
The wind is something to describe though. Starting in late spring it starts to pickup and everyday around 230PM until Midnight it blows. All of the sand / dust gets picked up by it turning into a swirling maelstorm of junk and dirt.
For the guys in Kandahar and the eastern portions of the country it is different. Kandahar is hot, very hot, reminds me of Iraq hot. The east of the country is hot but also mixed with humidity...

Fête Nationale -- [Field Notes: One Soldier's Perspective - in Afghanistan]
July 14: This morning we had a brief ceremony to recognize and celebrate "Fête Nationale" or French National Day. It is the official national day of France. While it is also known as Bastille Day (anniversary of storming the Bastille in 1789), it actually celebrates the anniversary of the Fête de la Fédération that occurred on 14 July 1790 (one year after the storming of the Bastille)...
This morning's ceremony featured the raising of the French flag over the ISAF Headquarters...

Goodbye "FaST" Food (and good riddance) -- [FaST Surgeon - in Afghanistan]
...I am completely for the elimination of places like BK and Pizza Hut from military installations. Not only in theaters of war, but in ALL military installations. I simply don't believe there is any reason for their existence on our bases / camps / or posts...


IRAQ

On The Iran, Iraq Border -- [J.D. Johannes - in Iraq]
In the 1980s Iran and Iraq fought to a bloody stalemate on a thin strip of desert over access to a waterway, the Shatt al Arab, that had been in dispute since the days of the Ottoman Empire.
The war was a pure fire-power battle resembling the trench warfare of World War I and the set piece charges of the American Civil War.
The tension over the Iran/Iraq border still lingers making border security one of the key missions of US Forces in Iraq.
I spent a day at the Shalamcha Port of Entry, a bustling entry point for Iranian tourists and transhipment point east of Basrah, Iraq...


WAR ON TERROR /TERRORISM

Senators Look For Smoking Gun In BP-Lockerbie Link -- [AP]
...Soon after al-Megrahi's release last year, BP acknowledged that it urged the British government to sign a prisoner transfer agreement with Libya, but stressed it didn't specify his case. It reiterated that stance this week when four U.S. Democratic senators asked the State Department to investigate whether there was a quid pro quo for the Lockerbie bomber's release.
"The evidence here may be circumstantial but if I were a prosecutor, I'd love to take this case to a jury," said New York Sen. Charles Schumer...

No Link Between BP And Lockerbie Release: UK Envoy -- [NPR news blog]
Many people for obvious reasons are more than willing to believe the worst about BP.
So when stories circulated this week that the company had lobbied for Scotland to release convicted Lockerbie bomber Abdelbaset al-Megrahi in order to secure an oil deal with Libya, many BP haters were perfectly ready to believe that.
But the United Kingdom's ambassador to the U.S., Nigel Sheinwald, says BP played no such a role in the al-Megrahi affair.
The envoy explained in an open letter to Sen. John Kerry, chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee...

UK's Cameron: Releasing Lockerbie Bomber Was Wrong -- [AP]
"As leader of opposition, I couldn't have been more clear that I thought the decision to release al-Megrahi was completely and utterly wrong," Cameron told the BBC before leaving Tuesday on his first visit as British leader to the United States, where he is expected to face questioning about the case.
In fact, Cameron's political party did more than just condemn the former Libyan intelligence agent's release. In the weeks following, Britain's Conservatives called for an inquiry into whether trade considerations played any role in the decision.
The party has changed tack, however, since taking control in May of Britain's government in a coalition. Cameron's Downing Street office said a government-commissioned inquiry was "not currently under consideration."
Cameron emphasized that the final decision to release al-Megrahi was made by Scotland's government, which holds some limited powers within the United Kingdom, and not by the previous British government headed by Prime Minister Gordon Brown.


U.S. AND OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD

As Cameron and Obama Meet, BP Will Be Top Issue -- [NY Times]
On the eve of a White House meeting with President Obama, Prime Minister David Cameron on Monday stepped into the furor over BP's lobbying for a prisoner-transfer agreement between Britain and Libya by saying he considered the release of the convicted Lockerbie bomber from a Scottish prison last year to be "completely and utterly wrong."
Ten weeks after taking office, Mr. Cameron is making his first visit to the United States as prime minister. He and Mr. Obama have a ledger of issues to discuss, including the Cameron government's decision to set an end date of 2015 for Britain's combat role in Afghanistan...

Afghanistan tops agenda for British PM's visit -- [Washington Times]
The White House on Monday said the war in Afghanistan is "first and foremost" on the agenda for Prime Minister David Cameron's first Washington visit with President Obama, but the new British leader will be walking a political tightrope over the release of the Lockerbie bomber amid questions from Congress about whether BP had a role in the decision.
The meeting Tuesday comes as operations in Afghanistan are at a pivotal point...


WELCOME HOME

Homecoming -- [Rajiv Srinivasan - home from Afghanistan]
..."All 5th Brigade Personnel bound for Joint-Base Lewis-McChord, we'll be boarding you at Gate 4 in five minutes," announced an airline representative over the intercom. A smile broke across my face. I was heading home. I was almost done. This war was over for me, and I could wash my hands of it for at least a year or two. I jumped up from my seat, gave one last grin at the run way, knowing I'd be on it in just a few moments.
"Hey Raj," called out my friend James, a West Point classmate in the brigade.
"What's going on brother?! Ready to kick this pig?!" I slapped him enthusiastically on the back.
"Rajiv...something's happened." James voice became quiet...


STRATEGY & TACTICS

ISAF, SCR Address Military ROE and Tactical Directives -- [ISAF]
"Our rules of engagement are solid, and they have not changed," said Blotz. "They are based on international law and are standardized across 47 nations, and describe the circumstances and limitations under which forces will begin or continue to engage in combat. This defines the"right and left limits" of what we will allow our forces to do as they fight."
...He added that the tactical directives tell troops what they should do while the rules of engagement instruct them what they can do. In an example he describes the difference between the two directives.
"If our troops are fired upon from a compound, under the laws of armed conflict...international law, that compound is a legal target," the general said. "However, the current tactical directive will ask our troops to consider the minimal level of force that's required to handle the situation."
...At the moment, the application of the current tactical directive is being reviewed to ensure it is consistently being used across our force.
"It is important to remember that [ISAF] military forces always retain the right to self defense, if commanders believe their forces are in danger they are required to make decisions to protect themselves," said Blotz..


SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

Raytheon's pain gun finally gets deployed in Afghanistan (update: recalled) -- [Engadget]
t's been six long years since we first got wind of the Pentagon's Active Denial System, and four since it was slated to control riots in Iraq, but though we've seen reporters zapped by the device once or twice, it seems the Air Force-approved pain gun is only now entering service in Afghanistan...
Update: Sorry folks, false alarm -- a Air Force spokesperson just informed us that though the pain gun was indeed sent to Afghanistan, it's now being returned to the US without ever seeing use.


Pain Ray Recalled From Afghanistan -- [Noah Shachtman/Danger Room]
...The system's tactical advantages are far outweighed by the strategically-massive propaganda boost that the pain ray would've given the Taliban.

The Active Denial System: the weapon that's a hot topic -- [The Telegraph (UK)]
In 2007, with the situation in Iraq at its most volatile since the invasion, US forces requested the presence of the ADS. It was never sent. Indeed, The Daily Telegraph has learnt that it has now been recalled from Afghanistan, without being fired in anger...
...Other problems come from the limitations of the device itself. Rain, snow and fog hamper its effectiveness, and it can be blocked by highly reflective materials such as aluminium foil...
Yet even if the ADS falls short, the ongoing pressure to keep the civilian body count to a minimum has made the development of similar weapons a top priority for Western forces. The ADS is only one of a raft of new non-lethal measures the US has been developing, under varying levels of secrecy...

World's Fastest Helicopter Boosts Battle Against Insurgents -- [ISAF]
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...The aircraft's value in the battle against insurgents lies in its versatile performance. The Lynx crews can track insurgent movements and watch over vulnerable areas with its sophisticated surveillance camera. This "overwatch" capability helps in the protection of the massive convoys used to re-supply front line troops in the forward operating bases.
The convoys can be vulnerable to attack as they track across vast swathes of desert from base to base but with the Lynx and its formidable weapons systems circling above, the insurgents stay away...




POLITICS

Is it time for a real GI Jane? -- [CNN]


HUMOR/SATIRE

-- []


(Need more? Dawn Patrols Archives are here.)



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The Mudville Gazette is the on-line voice of an American warrior and his wife who stands by him. They prefer to see peaceful change render force of arms unnecessary. Until that day they stand fast with those who struggle for freedom, strike for reason, and pray for a better tomorrow.
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The Mudville Gazette is written and produced by Greyhawk. Unless otherwise credited, the opinions expressed are those of the author, and nothing here is to be taken as representing the official position of or endorsement by the United States Department of Defense or any of its subordinate components. Furthermore, I will occasionally use satire or parody herein. The bottom line: it's my house.

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Original content copyright © 2003 - 2009 by Greyhawk. Fair, not-for-profit use of said material by others is encouraged, as long as acknowledgement and credit is given, to include the url of the original source post. Other arrangements can be made as needed.

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