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July 17, 2009

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Bring out your dead

By Greyhawk

Okay - let's have a contest: who did the best job of predicting how many dead Americans would result from the Iraq war?

Got no dog in the hunt myself, I tend to see war as unpredictable, understood the concept of "long war", wasn't blogging at the time, and knew that I (and friends of mine) - whether the answer was 10, 100, or tens of thousands - could become hash marks on the score card.

Nominations are open. The prize goes to whoever (a person, not some generic group) predicted this chart accurately. Pointing out that someone else was wrong (Joey said 60,000! Susie said 5!!) is not part of this discussion, that's best done elsewhere. We're seeking only to identify winners here!

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Tie-breaker will be who predicted the yellow line accurately.

It's possible - in fact I believe it most likely - that there might not not be a winner. But since the game is on, "no one wins" is a cop out. So, what should be the prize? And what should it be called? (The Hawkins Prize? The Hilzoy Award?)



Posted by Greyhawk / July 17, 2009 3:09 PM | Permalink

1 TrackBack

The casualties of war from Mudville Gazette on July 22, 2009 7:12 AM

In light of a previous discussion, here's an interesting Naval War College Review article from 2004:The poll upon which analysts Peter Feaver and Christopher Gelpi based their assertion of the relative willingness of the mass public to countenance casu... Read More

8 Comments

Do I get anything if I say it wasn't St. Andrew Sullivan of the Sacred Double-Cross?

maybe it's just me, but i'm uneasy with calling someone a 'winner' of this particular contest. i'd like to politely urge you to cancel this contest.

Trey,
I don't think there will be a winner. My point, perhaps subtle, is that anyone should indeed be extremely uneasy with any such thing. No one that I know of predicted - in any substantial way - Iraq as it turned out to be. But some are quick to point out someone else gave a wrong answer 6 years ago. (Subtle hint: THE QUESTION WAS WRONG)

But score keeping is the first step down the path I've jumped to the end of. It's good you see it as a horrible place, I'm with you, I agree, it is that indeed.

But could it be that those who started the discussion didn't think it through? Didn't see this destination coming? Damn - that seems analogous to something, but I can't quite put my finger on what it is...

OK. I'll admit I was wrong. (Thank God). As you may remember, when we went through the QDR in 1997, with two Major Regional Conflicts as the plan, and Win-Hold-Win as the strategy, the plan was to accept 20,000 dead Americans to conquer Iraq in 90 days and then move to South Korea over the next 90 days, and then accept 30,000 dead Americans in North Korea in the subsequent 90 days.

I love it when I'm wrong.......... (and the Joint Staff too, in this case)

God Bless our Men and Women. Amazing, each and every one of you. Press on, til Victory.

Subsunk

I assume we are talking about the actual body count, and not the dark, twisted, Narrative-was-right-but-the-facts-were-wrong fantasies the antiwar left engaged in.

"the plan was to accept 20,000 dead" - another part of the plan that was wrong. I seem to recall stories about the number of body bags in theater pre-invasion. Oddly enough, in citing the laundry list of errors, that one's forgotten. It's no less wrong than others.

Also forgotten: had Saddam Hussein stepped down war would have been avoided.

I don't know about casualty predictions—just before hostilities commenced it was leaked that the Pentagon expected 5k dead in the initial effort to topple Bagdad. In the same time frame however it was also reported that some in the Pentagon were predicting a five-year struggle, controversial then because everyone was expecting the war to be a drive-by.

i remember wesley clark's appearance on msnbc.

he had 2500 dead, by the time we took baghdad.
(he saw saddam's shadow and wanted six more weeks of bombing, before groundforces move in)

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November 26, 2010


America@war
[Greyhawk]
I think anyone who's ever pondered the "comment" option - once only available on blogs and bulletin boards, now ubiquitous on almost any web site - will appreciate this:
The so-called faculty of writing is not so much a faculty of writing as it is a faculty of thinking. When a man says, "I have an idea but I can't express it"; that man hasn't an idea but merely a vague feeling. If a man has a feeling of that kind, and will sit down for a half an hour and persistently try to put into writing what he feels, the probabilities are at least 90 percent that he will either be able to record it, or else realize that he has no idea at all. In either case, he will do himself a benefit.

That's wisdom from the past, captured for posterity at the US Naval Institute, shared via the web on the institute's 137th anniversary.

From their about page:

The Naval Institute shall remain

INDEPENDENT - A non-profit member association, with no government support, that does not lobby for special interests;

NON-PARTISAN - An independent, professional military association with a mission, goals and objectives that transcend political affiliations; and shall encourage

IDEAS - Through its respected journals Proceedings and Naval History, its conferences, its books and its online content, in support of those who serve.

"The Naval Institute has three core activities," among them, History and Preservation:

The Naval Institute also has recently introduced Americans at War, a living history of Americans at war in their own words and from their own experiences. These 90-second vignettes convey powerful stories of inspiration, pride, and patriotism.

Take a look at the collection, and you'll see it's not limited to accounts from those who served on ships at sea, members of the other branches are well-represented.

I'm fortunate to have met USNI's Mary Ripley, she's responsible for the institute's oral history program (and she's the daughter of the late John Ripley, whose story is told here). She also deserves much credit for their blog. ("We're not the Navy nor any government agency. Blog and comment freely.") We met at a milblog conference - Mary knew (and I would come to realize) that milbloggers are the 21st-century version of exactly what the US Naval Institute is all about. Once that light bulb came on in my head, I mentioned a vague idea for a project to her - milblogs as the 21st century oral history that they are.

"Put that in writing," she said (of course - see first paragraph above!) - and here's part of the result.

Shortly after the first tent was pitched by the American military in Iraq a wire was connected to a computer therein, and the internet was available to a generation of Americans at war - many of whom had grown up online. From that point on, at any given moment, somewhere in Iraq a Soldier, Sailor, Airman or Marine was at a keyboard sharing the events of his or her day with the folks back home. While most would simply fire off an email, others took advantage of the (then) relatively new online blogging platforms to post their thoughts and experiences for the entire world to see. The milblog was born - and from that moment to this stories detailing everything from the most mundane aspects of camp life to intense combat action (often described within hours of the event) have been available on the web...

And et cetera - but since you're reading this on a milblog, you probably knew that. And you know that milblogs aren't just blogs written by troops at war, that many friends, family members, and supporters likewise documented their story of America at war online in near-real time, as those stories developed.

The diversity in membership of that group is broad, the one thing we all have in common is the impulse to make sense of the seemingly senseless, and communicate the tale - for each of us that impulse was strong enough to overcome whatever barriers prevent the vast majority of people from doing the same. Everyone at some point has some vague idea they believe should be shared - we were the people who, from some combination of internal and external urging, found and spent those many half hours persistently trying to write it down.

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But where will all that be in another 137 years? Or five or ten, for that matter. That's something I've asked myself since at least 2004 - when I wrote this:

Closing Blogs is nothing new. So many site's owners just give up on their own. They come and go, you know, these MilBloggers do. Like any other sort of blogger. Many post in the lonely down hours far from home, spill their guts for the world, then abandon their spots when the tour of duty is up. They have lives again somewhere in the world, and no need to share the details. So it goes.

Many are truly gone - no site left at all. "The page cannot be found." Other blogs remain, like abandoned defensive positions in shifting desert sands.

Membership in the ghost battalion has grown in the years since, and an ever growing majority of those abandoned-but-still-standing sites are vanishing. Have you checked out Lt Smash's site lately? How about Sgt Hook's? If you're a long-time milblog reader you know the first widely-read milblog from Operation Iraq Freedom and the first widely-read milblog from Afghanistan are both gone from the web. If you're a relative newcomer to this world you may never even have heard of them - or the dozens upon dozens of others who carried forth the standard they set down.

If you have a vague notion that something should be done about that, (a notion I've heard expressed more than once...) then you and I and the good folks at the US Naval Institute are in agreement. Preserving the history documented by the milbloggers is just one of the goals of the milblog project, the once-vague idea that we're now making real.

And it's a big idea, if I say so myself - too big to explain in one simple blog post, so stand by for more. Likewise, it's too big a task to be accomplished by just one person. So if you're a milblogger (and exactly what is a milblogger? is a topic for much further discussion on its own) I'm asking for your help. All I'll really need is just a little bit (maybe just one or two of those half hours...) of your time, and your willingness to tell the tale.

We've already made history, it's time to save it.

(More to follow...)




Posted 4:02 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) |

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The Mudville Gazette is the on-line voice of an American warrior and his wife who stands by him. They prefer to see peaceful change render force of arms unnecessary. Until that day they stand fast with those who struggle for freedom, strike for reason, and pray for a better tomorrow.
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  • mark l.: i remember wesley clark's appearance on msnbc. he had 2500 read more
  • peter jackson: I don't know about casualty predictions—just before hostilities commenced it read more
  • Greyhawk: "the plan was to accept 20,000 dead" - another part read more
  • Mwalimu Daudi: I assume we are talking about the actual body count, read more
  • Subsunk: OK. I'll admit I was wrong. (Thank God). As you read more
  • Greyhawk: Trey, I don't think there will be a winner. My read more
  • trey: maybe it's just me, but i'm uneasy with calling someone read more
  • KingShamus: Do I get anything if I say it wasn't St. read more

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The Mudville Gazette is written and produced by Greyhawk, who recently retired from 24 years of active duty in the US military, but will maintain this disclaimer: Unless otherwise credited, the opinions expressed are those of the author, and nothing here is to be taken as representing the official position of or endorsement by the United States Department of Defense or any of its subordinate components.

Furthermore, I will occasionally use satire or parody herein. The bottom line: it's my house.

I like having visitors to my house. I hope you are entertained. I fight for your right to free speech, and am thrilled when you exercise said rights here. Comments and e-mails are welcome, but all such communication is to be assumed to be 1)the original work of any who initiate said communication and 2)the property of the Mudville Gazette, with free use granted thereto for publication in electronic or written form. If you do NOT wish to have your message posted, write "CONFIDENTIAL" in the subject line of your email.

Original content copyright © 2003 - 2011 by Greyhawk. Fair, not-for-profit use of said material by others is encouraged, as long as acknowledgement and credit is given, to include the url of the original source post. Other arrangements can be made as needed.

Contact: greyhawk at mudvillegazette dot com

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*****

Tending Distant
Fires


Far from hearth and home, watching
Cold alone but not alone
On distant shore and only wanting
Safe return and little more

What tales we'll tell
When that time comes
When tales can be told

When things grim
Seem far away
When other fires go cold

Some distant sunset, vision fading
Memories remain
And tired eyes gaze 'pon folded flags
While distant drums beat their refrain

Saluting fallen friends whose names
And youth will never fade
Here's to those on other shores,
for them live well, the price is paid

- Greyhawk,
Baghdad,
December 2004