A New Year in Afghanistan

Deployed Teacher is a blog featuring "Observations from a Special Ed. teacher deployed to Afghanistan." Here's what was observed there this past weekend:

Happy New Year
And yet again, the Afghan translators have invited me to their company party (I think I've been officially adopted) to help celebrate the new year, 1388! That's right, 1388.

And now for some news that might impact Afghanistan this year. First, from NATO:

Turkey could block Denmark's prime minister from becoming the next NATO chief given concerns over his past stance on Turkey and a row over Danish cartoons of the Prophet Mohammad, a Turkish official said on Sunday.
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"The cartoon crisis has a larger dimension than just Turkey. At a time when NATO is going to assume added responsibility in Afghanistan and Pakistan, having a secretary general with such an objectionable approach to billions of Muslims is not the right approach to the Muslim world."

The cartoon row erupted in 2006 after a Danish newspaper cartoon depicted the Prophet Mohammad with a bomb in his turban were reprinted across the European media.

Rasmussen refused to apologise for the cartoons, which sparked riots and attacks on Danish embassies in several Muslim states, but which Western governments defended in the name of freedom of expression.

Away from the funny pages, the New York Times (and 60 Minutes) bring back a popular term from 1385 (though it was applied to Iraq back in those days) - "Exit Strategy":

Obama Says a Way Out of Afghanistan Is Needed

WASHINGTON -- The United States must look for a way out of the war in Afghanistan, President Obama said, in a signal that the military build-up in Afghanistan will not be open-ended and will lead to the eventual withdrawal of American and NATO troops from the country.

"There's got to be an exit strategy," Mr. Obama said in a wide-ranging interview shown Sunday on "60 Minutes" on CBS. "There's got to be a sense that this is not perpetual drift."

European officials have been outspoken about their plans to leave Afghanistan in the next three to four years. Mr. Obama's remarks, which were recorded on Friday, indicated that the administration, which has more troops and resources in Afghanistan than European countries do, is also working toward a long-term strategy.

But in other news of this century, it seems that perhaps a potential debate over contractors could be a definite possibility, maybe:

In Afghanistan, US military's `Help Wanted' sign

WASHINGTON -- The military buildup in Afghanistan is stoking a surge of private security contractors despite a string of deadly shootings in Iraq in recent years that has called into question the government's ability to manage the guns for hire.

In recent online postings, the military has asked private security companies to protect traveling convoys and guard U.S. bases in troubled southern provinces such as Helmand and Kandahar. And if truckers hired to transport fuel for the military want protection, they can hire their own armed guards, the military says.
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Complicating matters is that the armed guards hired in Afghanistan most likely won't be U.S. citizens. According to Gates, only nine out of the 3,847 security contractors in Afghanistan have U.S. passports.

Some lawmakers worry that arming non-U.S. citizens to protect American bases or convoys poses a security risk in a country rife with corruption and on the defensive against the militant Taliban.

Gates defended the practice in his Feb. 17 response to Levin. "The use of contractor security personnel is vital to supporting the forward-operating bases in certain parts of the country and in continuing our efforts to employ local nationals whenever possible," the Pentagon chief said.

Sen. John McCain, the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, agrees.

"If Afghans are qualified to do jobs, we want them to do jobs," McCain, R-Ariz., said in an interview.

Despite Gates' assurances, Levin said in a statement to the Associated Press that he would "continue to actively review the issue and to consider the need for legislation."

But so far, Congress has struggled to close even the most glaring of legal loopholes governing security contractors in war zones.

While the law says U.S. courts have jurisdiction over defense contractors working in a war zone, it leaves in question those supporting other agencies, such as the Blackwater guards hired by the State Department and involved in the Baghdad shooting.

Meanwhile, back at the front:

U.S. missile strikes take heavy toll on Al Qaeda, officials say

Predator drone attacks in northwest Pakistan have increased sharply since Bush last year stopped seeking Pakistan's permission. Obama may keep pace as officials speak of confusion in Al Qaeda ranks.

An intense, six-month campaign of Predator strikes in Pakistan has taken such a toll on Al Qaeda that militants have begun turning violently on one another out of confusion and distrust, U.S. intelligence and counter-terrorism officials say.

The pace of the Predator attacks has accelerated dramatically since August, when the Bush administration made a previously undisclosed decision to abandon the practice of obtaining permission from the Pakistani government before launching missiles from the unmanned aircraft.

Since Aug. 31, the CIA has carried out at least 38 Predator strikes in northwest Pakistan, compared with 10 reported attacks in 2006 and 2007 combined, in what has become the CIA's most expansive targeted killing program since the Vietnam War.

Because of its success, the Obama administration is set to continue the accelerated campaign despite civilian casualties that have fueled anti-U.S. sentiment and prompted protests from the Pakistani government.

"This last year has been a very hard year for them," a senior U.S. counter-terrorism official said of Al Qaeda militants, whose operations he tracks in northwest Pakistan. "They're losing a bunch of their better leaders. But more importantly, at this point they're wondering who's next."

U.S. intelligence officials said they see clear signs that the Predator strikes are sowing distrust within Al Qaeda. "They have started hunting down people who they think are responsible" for security breaches, the senior U.S. counter-terrorism official said, discussing intelligence assessments on condition of anonymity. "People are showing up dead or disappearing."

The counter-terrorism official and others, who also spoke anonymously, said the U.S. assessments were based in part on reports from the region provided by the Pakistani intelligence service.

The stepped-up Predator campaign has killed at least nine senior Al Qaeda leaders and dozens of lower-ranking operatives, in what U.S. officials described as the most serious disruption of the terrorist network since 2001.

MAYDAN SHAR, Afghanistan -- Though the president has yet to formally spell out his strategy, the Obama administration's attempt to turn around a failing war is already beginning here, at a dusty crossroads 25 miles southwest of Kabul.

Thanks to a late decision by the Bush administration, U.S. forces based here and in surrounding Wardak province have just increased by a factor of 10. Consequently, the counterinsurgency strategy that rescued the U.S. mission in Iraq -- and that President Obama is betting on in Afghanistan -- is being fully applied for the first time in this bigger, poorer and increasingly violent country.

Soldiers from the 10th Mountain Division's 3rd Brigade are moving into outposts along a road leading west from Kabul toward Iran, and patrols have begun along the crucial southern highway to Kandahar, which also branches from the junction here. U.S. commanders are working with the local governor on a list of development projects to be funded with the Army's quick response funds. Special Forces are meanwhile training and arming a pilot "public protection force" that is roughly comparable to the neighborhood militias of Iraq.

To most eyes in Washington, Afghanistan has been looking worse by the week -- casualties this year are more than double what they were at this point in 2008. But U.S. commanders here, in Kabul and in Kandahar spoke confidently about reversing the war's momentum when I and several other journalists met with them over the last several days during a tour organized by the staff of commanding Gen. David D. McKiernan. "It's a war, and in a war, mass matters," said Brigadier Gen. Mark A. Milley, the deputy commander for the sector including Wardak province. "Over time this will work -- it has worked over and over again through history."

Happy New Year, Afghanistan.