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September 15, 2005

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The Spin Cycle (III)

By Greyhawk

See previous entry in our "Hurricane Exercise" here. For exercise purposes, twelve hours have passed between that installment and this one. Here's the latest bulletin from the National Hurricane Center on "Hurricane Mary":

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARY ADVISORY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL


...DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE MARY CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST IS CANCELLED SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH...AND FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI.

MARY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF MARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES MARY A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL...AND MARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH MARY MAY OCCUR AS FAR AS 150 TO 175 MILES INLAND ALONG THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 14 TO 17 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MARY CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY. STORM SURGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ALONG THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

MARY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI NORTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE MARY MAKES LANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS...AS WELL AS OVER CUBA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER ALL OF THE STATE OF FLORIDA EXCEPT THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...26.6 N... 85.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 941 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM EDT AND 3 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

You are in charge of a city in Florida - what would you do? You are in charge of a Parrish in Louisiana - what would you do? You are governor of one of those states, or Mississippi, or President of the United States, how should you respond?

By the way, the teams from 47 diferent broadcast and cable news outlets are setting up shop on the coast near your town and beginning to provide near hysterical coverage of events. They intend to stay, but are describing on air at great length those "dangerous battering waves" and the flooding described in the Hurricane Center's bulletin.

Three hours later, the updated Hurricane Center bulletin now refers to "extremely dangerous Hurricane Mary", and declares that the storm is indeed now cat 4.

Although the majority have done so, a large number of people have refused (or are unable) to evacuate your town. Landfall could occur within 12-18 hours.

Update: Part IV is here.


Posted by Greyhawk / September 15, 2005 7:11 PM | Permalink

1 Comment

I appreciate your effort. Not sure where you are headed. But you're not giving specific enough information for anyone to realistically make decisions. For the most part, NHC advisories aren't much better than a general call to buy plywood. Maybe you should name the city and include the NHC discussions as well as the advisories.

******************************************
******************************************
000
WTNT44 KNHC 100303
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005


AFTER DEEPENING AT A RATE THAT BORDERED ON INSANE DURING THEAFTERNOON...DENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AT A MORE NORMALRATE THIS EVENING. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANEHUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 941MB...WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 122 KT IN THE NORTHEASTQUADRANT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 110 KT. IT ISEXPECTED THAT WHEN THE AIRCRAFT AGAIN SAMPLES THE NORTHEAST EYEWALLTHAT IT WILL FIND STRONGER WINDS THAT WILL JUSTIFY UPGRADING DENNISTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ALTHOUGHDENNIS HAS A VERY LARGE OUTER WIND FIELD... THE HURRICANE FORCEWINDS ARE CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER.

THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. DENNIS IN ONTHE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THEWESTERN ATLANTIC NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND EAST OF AMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ARKANSAS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDTO JUST OFF THE TEXAS COAST. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD KEEP DENNISON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR ATLEAST 2 DAYS...WITH THIS MOTION BRINGING THE STORM INLAND ONSUNDAY. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN CALLING FORLANDFALL IN THE PENSACOLA FLORIDA-PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI AREA...ANDTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THECLUSTER JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AFTERLANDFALL...DENNIS SHOULD SLOW AND GRADUALLY RECURVE INTO THEWESTERLIES OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.

THE COMBINATION OF TIGHT INNER CORE...GOOD TO EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVERTHE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ANDCOLD CONVECTIVE TOPS SUGGESTS THAT DENNIS HAS NOT YET FINISHEDSTRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TOREACH 120 KT IN 12 HR. AFTER THAT...CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLESALONG WITH POSSIBLE DRY AIR INTRUSION AND POSSIBLY INCREASING SHEARWILL LIKELY END STRENGTHENING. DENNIS WILL WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALLAND EVENTUALLY BECOME A LOW PRESSURE AREA.

34 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT HAVE BEEN REVISED OUTWARDBASED ON OBSERVATIONS AT KEY WEST.

*************************************
*************************************
http://www.esl.lsu.edu//quicklinks/hurricanes/2005/DENNIS/NHC/Advisory.23

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November 26, 2010


America@war
[Greyhawk]
I think anyone who's ever pondered the "comment" option - once only available on blogs and bulletin boards, now ubiquitous on almost any web site - will appreciate this:
The so-called faculty of writing is not so much a faculty of writing as it is a faculty of thinking. When a man says, "I have an idea but I can't express it"; that man hasn't an idea but merely a vague feeling. If a man has a feeling of that kind, and will sit down for a half an hour and persistently try to put into writing what he feels, the probabilities are at least 90 percent that he will either be able to record it, or else realize that he has no idea at all. In either case, he will do himself a benefit.

That's wisdom from the past, captured for posterity at the US Naval Institute, shared via the web on the institute's 137th anniversary.

From their about page:

The Naval Institute shall remain

INDEPENDENT - A non-profit member association, with no government support, that does not lobby for special interests;

NON-PARTISAN - An independent, professional military association with a mission, goals and objectives that transcend political affiliations; and shall encourage

IDEAS - Through its respected journals Proceedings and Naval History, its conferences, its books and its online content, in support of those who serve.

"The Naval Institute has three core activities," among them, History and Preservation:

The Naval Institute also has recently introduced Americans at War, a living history of Americans at war in their own words and from their own experiences. These 90-second vignettes convey powerful stories of inspiration, pride, and patriotism.

Take a look at the collection, and you'll see it's not limited to accounts from those who served on ships at sea, members of the other branches are well-represented.

I'm fortunate to have met USNI's Mary Ripley, she's responsible for the institute's oral history program (and she's the daughter of the late John Ripley, whose story is told here). She also deserves much credit for their blog. ("We're not the Navy nor any government agency. Blog and comment freely.") We met at a milblog conference - Mary knew (and I would come to realize) that milbloggers are the 21st-century version of exactly what the US Naval Institute is all about. Once that light bulb came on in my head, I mentioned a vague idea for a project to her - milblogs as the 21st century oral history that they are.

"Put that in writing," she said (of course - see first paragraph above!) - and here's part of the result.

Shortly after the first tent was pitched by the American military in Iraq a wire was connected to a computer therein, and the internet was available to a generation of Americans at war - many of whom had grown up online. From that point on, at any given moment, somewhere in Iraq a Soldier, Sailor, Airman or Marine was at a keyboard sharing the events of his or her day with the folks back home. While most would simply fire off an email, others took advantage of the (then) relatively new online blogging platforms to post their thoughts and experiences for the entire world to see. The milblog was born - and from that moment to this stories detailing everything from the most mundane aspects of camp life to intense combat action (often described within hours of the event) have been available on the web...

And et cetera - but since you're reading this on a milblog, you probably knew that. And you know that milblogs aren't just blogs written by troops at war, that many friends, family members, and supporters likewise documented their story of America at war online in near-real time, as those stories developed.

The diversity in membership of that group is broad, the one thing we all have in common is the impulse to make sense of the seemingly senseless, and communicate the tale - for each of us that impulse was strong enough to overcome whatever barriers prevent the vast majority of people from doing the same. Everyone at some point has some vague idea they believe should be shared - we were the people who, from some combination of internal and external urging, found and spent those many half hours persistently trying to write it down.

*****

But where will all that be in another 137 years? Or five or ten, for that matter. That's something I've asked myself since at least 2004 - when I wrote this:

Closing Blogs is nothing new. So many site's owners just give up on their own. They come and go, you know, these MilBloggers do. Like any other sort of blogger. Many post in the lonely down hours far from home, spill their guts for the world, then abandon their spots when the tour of duty is up. They have lives again somewhere in the world, and no need to share the details. So it goes.

Many are truly gone - no site left at all. "The page cannot be found." Other blogs remain, like abandoned defensive positions in shifting desert sands.

Membership in the ghost battalion has grown in the years since, and an ever growing majority of those abandoned-but-still-standing sites are vanishing. Have you checked out Lt Smash's site lately? How about Sgt Hook's? If you're a long-time milblog reader you know the first widely-read milblog from Operation Iraq Freedom and the first widely-read milblog from Afghanistan are both gone from the web. If you're a relative newcomer to this world you may never even have heard of them - or the dozens upon dozens of others who carried forth the standard they set down.

If you have a vague notion that something should be done about that, (a notion I've heard expressed more than once...) then you and I and the good folks at the US Naval Institute are in agreement. Preserving the history documented by the milbloggers is just one of the goals of the milblog project, the once-vague idea that we're now making real.

And it's a big idea, if I say so myself - too big to explain in one simple blog post, so stand by for more. Likewise, it's too big a task to be accomplished by just one person. So if you're a milblogger (and exactly what is a milblogger? is a topic for much further discussion on its own) I'm asking for your help. All I'll really need is just a little bit (maybe just one or two of those half hours...) of your time, and your willingness to tell the tale.

We've already made history, it's time to save it.

(More to follow...)




Posted 4:02 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) |

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The Mudville Gazette is written and produced by Greyhawk, who recently retired from 24 years of active duty in the US military, but will maintain this disclaimer: Unless otherwise credited, the opinions expressed are those of the author, and nothing here is to be taken as representing the official position of or endorsement by the United States Department of Defense or any of its subordinate components.

Furthermore, I will occasionally use satire or parody herein. The bottom line: it's my house.

I like having visitors to my house. I hope you are entertained. I fight for your right to free speech, and am thrilled when you exercise said rights here. Comments and e-mails are welcome, but all such communication is to be assumed to be 1)the original work of any who initiate said communication and 2)the property of the Mudville Gazette, with free use granted thereto for publication in electronic or written form. If you do NOT wish to have your message posted, write "CONFIDENTIAL" in the subject line of your email.

Original content copyright © 2003 - 2011 by Greyhawk. Fair, not-for-profit use of said material by others is encouraged, as long as acknowledgement and credit is given, to include the url of the original source post. Other arrangements can be made as needed.

Contact: greyhawk at mudvillegazette dot com

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*****

Tending Distant
Fires


Far from hearth and home, watching
Cold alone but not alone
On distant shore and only wanting
Safe return and little more

What tales we'll tell
When that time comes
When tales can be told

When things grim
Seem far away
When other fires go cold

Some distant sunset, vision fading
Memories remain
And tired eyes gaze 'pon folded flags
While distant drums beat their refrain

Saluting fallen friends whose names
And youth will never fade
Here's to those on other shores,
for them live well, the price is paid

- Greyhawk,
Baghdad,
December 2004