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« Story from an old man's war | Main | Once again, the Free and the Brave »

February 23, 2008

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What if, what was, what now, what next...

By Greyhawk

I suspect we'll be hearing this argument frequently over the next few months:

He (Obama) argued the Iraq war "diverted attention from Afghanistan where Al Qaeda, that killed 3,000 Americans, are stronger now than at any time since 2001."

...in large part because we've been hearing it repeatedly over the last few years. It's a popular argument because it's based in undeniable fact - every soldier, weapon, or vehicle sent to Iraq could not simultaneously be in Afghanistan. It's a powerful argument - as long as you stop thinking about it right there and don't let additional facts intrude on your reverie.

To engage in this discussion is to enter into a game of "what if?". Let's indulge those who've chosen to do so - I'm assuming they've thought it through beyond the bumper-sticker/sound bite level and are eager to flesh out their position. So here are a few follow-up questions:

  • Would you have sent all the troops who went to Iraq into Afghanistan? If not, how many?
  • Is there any limit to the amount of troops or time you would devote to the hunt for Osama bin Laden? If so, what is that limit? What percentage of troops in Afghanistan would be assigned to other tasks?
  • Would the al Qaeda recruits (or "foreign fighters") who went to Iraq since 2003 have gone to Afghanistan instead? The Soviet experience in Afghanistan certainly indicates that's likely.
  • Would Saddam Hussein have assisted that effort? If so, how would you respond?
  • From 1991-2003 tens of thousands of American troops served in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey enforcing U.N. sanctions against Iraq. (Remember the "no fly zones" and the near-daily attacks on Iraq radar sites and anti-aircraft positions?) Would you have left these troops in place? (Hint: they aren't there any more...) Consider also that Osama bin Laden cited the presence of these troops as the fundamental basis of his jihad against America, culminating in the 9/11 attacks.

There are countless follow-up questions - but that's enough "what if?" for now. The more important question is "what now?" - and any candidate's answers to the "what ifs" or complaints about "what was" matter only insofar as they illuminate that persons view of "what next".

So on to the questions that matter:

  • Are you arguing for a reduction in troops in Iraq? How many? How soon?
  • If the answers to the above are "yes" and "not all": experience has proven a smaller number of troops in Iraq is ineffective at containing violence/maintaining stability. Has the situation on the ground in Iraq changed to the point where a smaller number of troops will be effective? What is that number?
  • If violence rises as a result of a reduction to that level (or a complete withdrawal), would you restore the larger number of troops? If (post-drawdown) evidence indicated al Qaeda had created training camps in Iraq to prepare troops for Afghanistan would you increase the number of American troops in Iraq? Following any drawdown, is there any contingency you could imagine that would trigger an increase of troops in Iraq?
  • If al Qaeda in Afghanistan is "stronger now than at any time since 2001"? would all the troops in Iraq "come home" or would they move to Afghanistan? Would some remain somewhere near Iraq "just in case?" Where would that be?
  • If an American withdrawal from Iraq led to an al Qaeda recruiting boom in Afghanistan (Osama cited our withdrawal from Somalia as evidence of our ultimate weakness) would you respond with further increases to our forces in Afghanistan?
  • Is there any limit to the amount of troops or time you would devote to the hunt for Osama bin Laden? If so, what is that limit? What percentage of troops in Afghanistan would be assigned to other tasks?
  • Finally: what would the tour length be for troops in Iraq, Afghanistan, or "somewhere nearby just in case"? How much time should they spend in the United States between tours in the combat zone?

These are the questions that will confront our next President, and I think it's fair to ask them now. I don't care what they would have done in 2003 - we all share the gift of 20/20 hindsight - I won't vote for anyone who doesn't have a plan for 2009.

Update: One answer?


Posted by Greyhawk / February 23, 2008 1:00 PM | Permalink

1 TrackBack

What Greyhawk does not seem to understand is that it is precisely the judgement capabilities of the next President that will decide whether this Country moves forward or whether we continue to die at the hands of the Bush Administration policies. Greyh... Read More

8 Comments

Yep ... the regurgitation of that argument has already started in Ace's comment section ... and I'm already -- AGAIN -- explaining what should be obvious to the oblivious in the comments, as well.

Back to the Troll Patrols ...

Obama said he would see that the military was "properly" trained, "properly" equipped, etc.. he didn't say he would increase numbers or funding, just that he would change how those things are done today to the "proper" way.

He should be pressed -- what is the "proper" way? If the training and equipping is being done incorrectly, spell out what the correct way is. Basically, he's saying how the military is doing these things is wrong, that he'll make sure they do it right.

He doesn't further elaborate, possibly because he doesn't know. He just "feels" how it's being done now is wrong. These notions are hanging in the air, no one is out there contradicting them, and he seems to have no intention of fleshing it out with specifics.

The Russians did "Big Footprint" in Afghanistan...lost 4,000+ Soldiers a year.

If one had not conducted the campaign in Iraq how many additional soldiers COULD have been deployed to Afghanistan? I would suggest the answer is 'Not many,' because of logistics constraints. I suspect the Iraq campaign was opened in part (in addition to the official reasons) BECAUSE IT COULD, and would be a far better place to fight Islamic fascists than Afghanistan - far easier to supply, better terrain, and a more favorable population to work with (in the long run.)
Afghanistan, because we had to.
Iraq, because we could.
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia - we need to, but can't.

Senator Obama's public comments are so simplistic and naive I have to think they're just political pap for the ignorant masses - he's not stupid enough to actually believe them, is he? Lord help us.

Great post!

Should be distributed widely, especially to the candidates.

Jon Solz (of VoteVets, I believe?) has a piece up on Huffington Post supporting Obama's statement, and maintaining that he has many Afghanistan vet friends who attest to the shortages during their deployments.

I think the problem is, we'd all like perfection in these operations, but being a human endeavor, it's not going to happen. It strikes me as a little "sniveling", i.e., "They should have given me this, they owed it to me to give me that, they never even showed me how to wipe my butt", etc...

Jon Solz (of VoteVets, I believe?) has a piece up on Huffington Post supporting Obama's statement, and maintaining that he has many Afghanistan vet friends who attest to the shortages during their deployments.

I think the problem is, we'd all like perfection in these operations, but being a human endeavor, it's not going to happen. It strikes me as a little "sniveling", i.e., "They should have given me this, they owed it to me to give me that, they never even showed me how to wipe my butt", etc...

My last comment seems to have hit the bit bucket. Glad to see you back...

Another question is his leftist support of Odinga, his cousin in Kenya, who once attempted a coup in 82, and this year allowed riots go forward resulting in over 700 killed. He has a brother there as well who supports invoking Sharia Law.

When he speaks of change, pulling out of Iraq, I do not trust his motives at all.

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November 26, 2010


America@war
[Greyhawk]
I think anyone who's ever pondered the "comment" option - once only available on blogs and bulletin boards, now ubiquitous on almost any web site - will appreciate this:
The so-called faculty of writing is not so much a faculty of writing as it is a faculty of thinking. When a man says, "I have an idea but I can't express it"; that man hasn't an idea but merely a vague feeling. If a man has a feeling of that kind, and will sit down for a half an hour and persistently try to put into writing what he feels, the probabilities are at least 90 percent that he will either be able to record it, or else realize that he has no idea at all. In either case, he will do himself a benefit.

That's wisdom from the past, captured for posterity at the US Naval Institute, shared via the web on the institute's 137th anniversary.

From their about page:

The Naval Institute shall remain

INDEPENDENT - A non-profit member association, with no government support, that does not lobby for special interests;

NON-PARTISAN - An independent, professional military association with a mission, goals and objectives that transcend political affiliations; and shall encourage

IDEAS - Through its respected journals Proceedings and Naval History, its conferences, its books and its online content, in support of those who serve.

"The Naval Institute has three core activities," among them, History and Preservation:

The Naval Institute also has recently introduced Americans at War, a living history of Americans at war in their own words and from their own experiences. These 90-second vignettes convey powerful stories of inspiration, pride, and patriotism.

Take a look at the collection, and you'll see it's not limited to accounts from those who served on ships at sea, members of the other branches are well-represented.

I'm fortunate to have met USNI's Mary Ripley, she's responsible for the institute's oral history program (and she's the daughter of the late John Ripley, whose story is told here). She also deserves much credit for their blog. ("We're not the Navy nor any government agency. Blog and comment freely.") We met at a milblog conference - Mary knew (and I would come to realize) that milbloggers are the 21st-century version of exactly what the US Naval Institute is all about. Once that light bulb came on in my head, I mentioned a vague idea for a project to her - milblogs as the 21st century oral history that they are.

"Put that in writing," she said (of course - see first paragraph above!) - and here's part of the result.

Shortly after the first tent was pitched by the American military in Iraq a wire was connected to a computer therein, and the internet was available to a generation of Americans at war - many of whom had grown up online. From that point on, at any given moment, somewhere in Iraq a Soldier, Sailor, Airman or Marine was at a keyboard sharing the events of his or her day with the folks back home. While most would simply fire off an email, others took advantage of the (then) relatively new online blogging platforms to post their thoughts and experiences for the entire world to see. The milblog was born - and from that moment to this stories detailing everything from the most mundane aspects of camp life to intense combat action (often described within hours of the event) have been available on the web...

And et cetera - but since you're reading this on a milblog, you probably knew that. And you know that milblogs aren't just blogs written by troops at war, that many friends, family members, and supporters likewise documented their story of America at war online in near-real time, as those stories developed.

The diversity in membership of that group is broad, the one thing we all have in common is the impulse to make sense of the seemingly senseless, and communicate the tale - for each of us that impulse was strong enough to overcome whatever barriers prevent the vast majority of people from doing the same. Everyone at some point has some vague idea they believe should be shared - we were the people who, from some combination of internal and external urging, found and spent those many half hours persistently trying to write it down.

*****

But where will all that be in another 137 years? Or five or ten, for that matter. That's something I've asked myself since at least 2004 - when I wrote this:

Closing Blogs is nothing new. So many site's owners just give up on their own. They come and go, you know, these MilBloggers do. Like any other sort of blogger. Many post in the lonely down hours far from home, spill their guts for the world, then abandon their spots when the tour of duty is up. They have lives again somewhere in the world, and no need to share the details. So it goes.

Many are truly gone - no site left at all. "The page cannot be found." Other blogs remain, like abandoned defensive positions in shifting desert sands.

Membership in the ghost battalion has grown in the years since, and an ever growing majority of those abandoned-but-still-standing sites are vanishing. Have you checked out Lt Smash's site lately? How about Sgt Hook's? If you're a long-time milblog reader you know the first widely-read milblog from Operation Iraq Freedom and the first widely-read milblog from Afghanistan are both gone from the web. If you're a relative newcomer to this world you may never even have heard of them - or the dozens upon dozens of others who carried forth the standard they set down.

If you have a vague notion that something should be done about that, (a notion I've heard expressed more than once...) then you and I and the good folks at the US Naval Institute are in agreement. Preserving the history documented by the milbloggers is just one of the goals of the milblog project, the once-vague idea that we're now making real.

And it's a big idea, if I say so myself - too big to explain in one simple blog post, so stand by for more. Likewise, it's too big a task to be accomplished by just one person. So if you're a milblogger (and exactly what is a milblogger? is a topic for much further discussion on its own) I'm asking for your help. All I'll really need is just a little bit (maybe just one or two of those half hours...) of your time, and your willingness to tell the tale.

We've already made history, it's time to save it.

(More to follow...)




Posted 4:02 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) |

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The Mudville Gazette is the on-line voice of an American warrior and his wife who stands by him. They prefer to see peaceful change render force of arms unnecessary. Until that day they stand fast with those who struggle for freedom, strike for reason, and pray for a better tomorrow.
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  • Michael: My last comment seems to have hit the bit bucket. read more
  • jordan: Jon Solz (of VoteVets, I believe?) has a piece up read more
  • jordan: Jon Solz (of VoteVets, I believe?) has a piece up read more
  • Americaneocon: Great post! Should be distributed widely, especially to the candidates. read more
  • Glenmore: If one had not conducted the campaign in Iraq how read more
  • SoldiersDad: The Russians did "Big Footprint" in Afghanistan...lost 4,000+ Soldiers a read more
  • jordan: Obama said he would see that the military was "properly" read more
  • Rich Casebolt: Yep ... the regurgitation of that argument has already started read more

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The Mudville Gazette is written and produced by Greyhawk, who recently retired from 24 years of active duty in the US military, but will maintain this disclaimer: Unless otherwise credited, the opinions expressed are those of the author, and nothing here is to be taken as representing the official position of or endorsement by the United States Department of Defense or any of its subordinate components.

Furthermore, I will occasionally use satire or parody herein. The bottom line: it's my house.

I like having visitors to my house. I hope you are entertained. I fight for your right to free speech, and am thrilled when you exercise said rights here. Comments and e-mails are welcome, but all such communication is to be assumed to be 1)the original work of any who initiate said communication and 2)the property of the Mudville Gazette, with free use granted thereto for publication in electronic or written form. If you do NOT wish to have your message posted, write "CONFIDENTIAL" in the subject line of your email.

Original content copyright © 2003 - 2011 by Greyhawk. Fair, not-for-profit use of said material by others is encouraged, as long as acknowledgement and credit is given, to include the url of the original source post. Other arrangements can be made as needed.

Contact: greyhawk at mudvillegazette dot com

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*****

Tending Distant
Fires


Far from hearth and home, watching
Cold alone but not alone
On distant shore and only wanting
Safe return and little more

What tales we'll tell
When that time comes
When tales can be told

When things grim
Seem far away
When other fires go cold

Some distant sunset, vision fading
Memories remain
And tired eyes gaze 'pon folded flags
While distant drums beat their refrain

Saluting fallen friends whose names
And youth will never fade
Here's to those on other shores,
for them live well, the price is paid

- Greyhawk,
Baghdad,
December 2004