Chatter (and numbers that matter)

Or: "How the War was Won (Part one)"

Preface:

Military policemen patrolled the tracks and bus stations to watch for deserters. The Army in the past six months had charged more than 2,600 soldiers with desertion and convicted 90 percent of them. Indiscipline also plagued units that had been staging in southeast Virginia for weeks. So many men were sentenced to the crowded brig at Solomon's Island in Chesapeake Bay during amphibious training that there was a waiting list to serve time; on October 3 alone, thirty men had been court-martialed for various infractions.

This week in military history: Operation Torch, the allied invasion of North Africa began.

It's a wonder we won that war.

"The idea of huge armies rolling along roads at a fast pace is a dream," Cavalry Journal warned in 1940, even after the German blitzkrieg signaled the arrival of mechanized warfare. "Oil and tires cannot like forage be obtained locally." The Army's cavalry chief assured Congress in 1941 that four well-spaced horsemen could charge half a mile across an open field to destroy an enemy machine-gun nest without sustaining a scratch... The last Regular Army cavalry regiment would slaughter its mounts to feed the starving garrison on Bataan in the Philippines, ending the cavalry era not with a bang but with a dinner bell.

Let's move on to the present day, somewhere in Iraq: I drove to the Local Air Force Base earlier this week to pick up some new guys. This is always an exercise in patience - planes are never on time and information is sometimes unreliable. So you wait. And sometimes you wait some more. But today I didn't have to wait too long until learning that my guys didn't get to their waypoint in time to catch their flight in, so I only spent about 3 hours (including driving time) achieving nothing. I've had worse days.

Elsewhere:

Iraqi citizen leads Coalition Forces to EFP factory

HUSSEINIYAH, Iraq - A citizen of Husseiniyah led Coalition Forces to a building where explosively formed penetrators and improvised explosive devices were being constructed Oct. 31.

Soldiers of Battery A, 2nd Battalion, 12th Field Artillery, 4th Stryker Brigade Combat Team, 2nd Infantry Division, from Fort Lewis, Wash., discovered a large cache of explosives at the home, including about 10 fully assembled EFPs of various sizes including one 12-inch EFP - the largest found in Iraq - approximately 90 copper plates of various sizes, more than 200 pounds of C-4 explosive, other explosive materials including TNT and numerous other materials used in manufacturing EFPs.

"In our area of operations the EFP threat is significant, and there was enough material there to make 150 EFPs, so we may have saved the lives of 50-75 people over two months," said Lt. Col John Drago, 2-12 FA, 4th Stryker BCT, 2nd Inf. Div. commander, noting that the discovery would not have been possible without Iraqi help.

There's a large, outdoor waiting area available at Local Air Force Base, and even a couple of seats for the hundred or so folks to sleep on while awaiting transportation. Those not fortunate enough to get one of the benches can sack out on concrete, dirt or gravel, whichever they prefer.

Sometime before finding out I was completely wasting my time I wandered into one of the larger outdoor waiting pens. For a moment I thought the ground was filled with backpacks and rucksacks, but on closer examination I realized it was filled with backpacks, rucksacks, and people in matching uniforms using them as pillows.

Tip leads Iraqi National Police to cache

FORWARD OPERATING BASE LOYALTY, Iraq - Based off a tip from a concerned citizen, officers with the 1st Battalion, 4th Brigade, 1st Iraqi National Police Division recovered a cache in the courtyard and surrounding areas of the al Mustafa mosque in the Mualameen neighborhood of eastern Baghdad Nov. 1.

The cache included two explosively-formed penetrators, eight rocket-propelled grenades, three rocket-propelled grenade launchers, seven rocket-propelled grenade motors, three rockets, 14 mortars, one sniper rifle with a scope and a 10-round magazine. A spool of wire, body armor and old Iraqi Army uniforms were also recovered. This is the fourth cache found in less than two weeks by Iraqi Security Forces. "Residents are concerned about their neighborhoods and are taking a greater interest with the help of increased security by Iraqi Police and Iraqi Army Soldiers. Protecting their livelihood and family is of utmost importance to them and the ISF. Every tip from local residents is a small victory," said Col. Jeffrey Bannister, the commander for the 2nd Infantry Brigade Combat Team, 2nd Infantry Division. The discovery comes as U.S. and Iraqi forces continue to sweep out insurgent strongholds in eastern Baghdad. This includes setting up combat outposts and Joint Security Stations as part of the Baghdad Security Plan.

Large weapons cache located by Concerned Local Citizens

FORWARD OPERATING BASE KALSU, Iraq - Concerned Local Citizens found a large cache in Arab Jabour Nov. 1.

The CLCs told Soldiers from Company A, 1st Battalion, 30th Infantry Regiment, 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 3rd Infantry Division about the cache site. Soldiers investigated the site and discovered three barrels buried in the ground containing rocket-propelled grenade rounds, mortars and various munitions. The items found included eight 60mm mortars, two 82mm mortars, 25 OG-7 RPG projectiles, three RPG-7 propellant sticks, one RPG sight, an unknown sight, 3,000 14.5mm rounds, 200 7.62mm rounds, one AK-47, one 14.5mm gun barrel and receiver, one RPK light machine gun, three hand grenades, 15 fuses and 15 pounds of C-4 explosive. "When we take these items away we make it safer for both the citizens and the troops," said Sgt. 1st Class Gerald Newton, 1-30th Inf. Regt., tactical command post NCO. Newton said such discoveries help build trust among the communities. He said when citizens see Soldiers taking dangerous weapons off their streets, it demonstrates that Soldiers are acting to make the area safe, leading to further cooperation. The cache was destroyed in a controlled detonation by an explosive ordnance disposal team.

Hang around such places and you pick up intel. You hear about life in the remote outposts, on the convoys, and in the streets and neighborhoods of Baghdad and elsewhere. You hear exaggerations, too - and rumors passed as fact. That's human nature. Back in July a soldier waiting for a flight home for leave told me of horrible losses his Brigade had suffered. The numbers were inflated - slightly - while low enough to be believable they were high enough to have brought huge front page headlines to every newspaper in America, and those headlines never were. GIs exaggerate and inflate and tend to pass rumor as fact, but at the base of all that is truth, and the truth is that combat in the early summer months here was intense - some of the roughest fighting of the war. And not far from where we stood was another gateway home: the mortuary.

But fewer and fewer passed through that gate in the weeks since that day in the middle of summer. And this week while standing in the same location I heard a different story.

Concerned Local Citizens find large cache in Hawr Rajab

FORWARD OPERATING BASE KALSU, Iraq - Concerned Local Citizens in Hawr Rajab reported a large improvised explosive device cache to Coalition Forces at Entry Control Point 20, a patrol base in the area Oct. 31.

The cache consisted of 34 83mm mortar rounds and 72 57mm rounds. All of the rounds were filled with homemade explosives and primed with detonation cords.

The rounds would likely have been used as IEDs for dismounted patrols and mortar attacks against Coalition Forces.

Soldiers from 1st Squadron, 40th Cavalry Regiment, 4th Brigade Combat Team (Airborne), 25th Infantry Division were at ECP 20 when the CLCs told them about the cache. The 1-40th Cav. Regt. is currently attached to the 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 3rd Infantry Division.

An explosive ordnance disposal team was called to ECP 20 to assess the cache.

"Hey, I'm heading to {remote combat outpost} - how are things there?

"Not bad, really. We haven't been attacked this month at all, and last month we were attacked only once. IED's are down, too. We're doing heavy route clearance. I can't remember the last time an IED hit us..."

Soldiers might exaggerate threats, but they do not bullshit someone heading for their post about the lack thereof.

Concerned Local Citizens find three caches

FORWARD OPERATING BASE KALSU, Iraq - Concerned Local Citizens found three separate caches in the communities of Hawr Rajab and Arab Jabour Nov. 1.

In Hawr Rajab, CLCs found an improvised explosive device in a canal, consisting of an oxygen tank with 40 pounds of homemade explosives. The IED was taken to Soldiers of 1st Squadron, 40th Cavalry Regiment, 4th Brigade Combat Team (Airborne), 25th Infantry Division currently attached to the 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 3rd Infantry Division. The Soldiers were at a patrol base in Hawr Rajab.

In Arab Jabour, the CLCs told Soldiers of Company C, 1st Battalion, 30th Infantry Regiment, 2nd BCT, 3rd Inf. Div. where a possible IED was located. The IED consisted of five pounds of HME connected to a pressure plate.

Another CLC group brought an IED to Soldiers of Company E, 1-30th Inf. Regt. The IED consisted of a 120mm mortar with command wire and a blasting cap.

The three IEDs were destroyed in controlled detonations by an explosive ordnance disposal team.

Tips Lead To Eight Insurgent Suspects

BAGHDAD - Tips led Multi-National Division-Baghdad forces to arrest eight men suspected of insurgent activities during combat operations in the Doura area of the Iraqi capital Nov. 3.

During two early morning raids based on tips from concerned citizens, Soldiers of Company A, 1st Battalion, 77th Armored Regiment, part of Task Force Vanguard and the 4th Infantry Brigade Combat Team, 1st Infantry Division, captured three men suspected of placing improvised explosive devices along one of the main streets in the area.

In two simultaneous raids just before noon on the east side of Doura, "Raiders" of Troop A, 1st Squadron, 4th Cavalry Regiment, 4th IBCT, arrested three men suspected of participating in IED placement and alleged involvement in murders.

Tips led "Warriors" of Company C, 2nd Battalion, 12th Infantry Regiment, 2nd Inf. Div., attached to the 4th IBCT, to detain a man suspected of attacks against the Iraqi National Police.

That evening, "Warriors" from Co. B, 2-12 Inf., arrested an individual suspected of placing IEDs and forcing families to leave their homes.

All detainees are being held for further questioning.

The decrease in violence is more than anecdotal. At this point I don't even think I need to provide links to supporting documents and news coverage - if you haven't heard by now then you aren't the sort of person who would have read this far anyway.

But I'm not a fan of death metrics. Up, down, and chaotic - an exceptionally low month means it will be quite easy for the next month to be higher - a helicopter crash could do it. And there are many possible reasons for this decrease, ranging from "neighborhood ethnic cleansing goals achieved" or "militias biding their time" to "Victory is ours!" And you'll hear them all from people pointing to the wrong numbers to support their claim: the numbers from the morgue.

Tip leads to Iraqi Army to two caches, 6 detained

FORWARD OPERATING BASE LOYALTY, Iraq - Soldiers with the 4th Brigade, 1st Iraqi Army Division captured six suspected extremists and recovered two caches in the Zafaraniya neighborhood of eastern Baghdad on Nov. 3.

The captures and recovery of the two caches occurred after receiving a tip from an area resident.

Weapons recovered included one sniper rifle with 200 rounds of ammunition, one rocket-propelled grenade launcher, two rocket-propelled heat rounds, 19 grenades, one AK-47, one 12-inch blade, and three 100-round belts of ammunition. Other items recovered included seven identification cards, two handheld radios, one radio charger and one Iraqi Army uniform.

The discoveries were the fourth and fifth weapons cache recovery by Iraqi Security Forces in the past two weeks in eastern Baghdad. The suspects are being held for further questioning.

But interspersed throughout the above are the right numbers,the real indicators of victory in Iraq. Civilian tips leading to terrorists and their weapons caches - and the ones you've seen above are just a few from one four-day stretch. These matter more than raw numbers on violence.

I said so almost exactly two years ago.

We've discussed it at MilBlogs.

But few people are paying attention to what those of us who are here fighting this war might have to say. Everyone is focused on the death metrics, and everyone is wrong. Call it "hearts and minds" or people fighting for their lives and futures who do not fear turning to us for help and helping us in return without fear of retribution from an enemy falling fast - these are the numbers that tell the tale. These are the numbers that indicate something worthwhile. These are the numbers that will drive the death metrics further down and keep them there.

And lead to things like this:

Thousands Return to Safer Iraqi Capital
By STEVEN R. HURST - 12 hours ago

BAGHDAD (AP) -- In a dramatic turnaround, more than 3,000 Iraqi families driven out of their Baghdad neighborhoods have returned to their homes in the past three months as sectarian violence has dropped, the government said Saturday.

Saad al-Azawi, his wife and four children are among them. They fled to Syria six months ago, leaving behind what had become one of the capital's more dangerous districts -- west Baghdad's largely Sunni Khadra region.

The family had been living inside a vicious and bloody turf battle between al-Qaida in Iraq and Mahdi Army militiamen. But Azawi said things began changing, becoming more peaceful, in August when radical anti-American Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr ordered his Mahdi Army fighters to stand down nationwide.

About the same time, the Khadra neighborhood Awakening Council rose up against brutal al-Qaida control -- the imposition of its austere interpretation of Islam, along with the murder and torture of those who would not comply.

The uprising originated in Iraq's west and flowed into the capital. Earlier this year, the Sunni tribes and clans in the vast Anbar province began their own revolt and have successfully rid the largely desert region of al-Qaida control.

At one point the terrorist group virtually controlled Anbar, often with the complicity of the vast Sunni majority who welcomed the outsiders in their fight against American forces.

But, U.S. officials say, al-Qaida overplayed its hand with Iraq's Sunnis, who practice a moderate version of Islam. American forces were quick to capitalize on the upheaval, welcoming former Sunni enemies as colleagues in securing what was once the most dangerous region of the country.

And as 30,000 additional U.S. forces arrived for the crackdown in Baghdad and central Iraq, the American commander, Gen. David Petraeus, began stationing many of them in neighborhood outposts. The mission was not only to take back control but to foster neighborhood groups like the one in Khadra to shake off al-Qaida's grip.

The 40-year-old al-Azawi, who has gone back to work managing a car service, said relatives and friends persuaded him to bring his family home.

"Six months ago, I wouldn't dare be outside, not even to stand near the garden gate by the street. Killings had become routine. I stopped going to work, I was so afraid," he said, chatting with friends on a street in the neighborhood.

When he and his family joined the flood of Iraqi refugees to Syria the streets were empty by early afternoon, when all shops were tightly shuttered. Now the stores stay open until 10 p.m. and the U.S. military working with the neighborhood council is handing out $2,000 grants to shop owners who had closed their business. The money goes to those who agree to reopen or first-time businessmen.

Al-Azawi said he's trying to get one of the grants to open a poultry and egg shop that his brother would run.

"In Khadra, about 15 families have returned from Syria. I've called friends and family still there and told them it's safe to come home," he said.

And when they do, they'll be on our side too.

Rear Adm. Gregory Smith, MNF-I spokesman:

In the first 10 months of 2007, caches found and cleared by CF/ISF have doubled the entire volume of 2006. A cache is a concealed source of supplies, weapons, munitions, that fuels insurgency and targets CF/ISF/civilians. The highest concentration of caches has been found in Anbar province. This can be attributed to the increasing effectiveness of the ISF, and receiving tips from Iraqi civilians. The surge strategy has allowed this increase in local cooperation. On Wednesday, an Iraqi citizen led CF to a large EFP cache in Husseiniyah, which contained 10 fully assembled EFPs, 90 copper plates, 200 lbs. of C4, and other materials.

"In the first ten months of 2007, coalition and Iraqi security forces have found and cleared 5,364 caches. That is twice the volume of material found and cleared in all of 2006, some 2,667 caches."

How did we win this war? Simply put, we won because we are the best. The finest Soldiers and Sailors and Airmen and Marines in the world, and the best hope for people seeking hope for a future. And we are tired and hot is turning cold and we are far from home and soldiering on but you can't take that from us, and we won't let anyone take it from them.

The story continues here