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 Greetings! You are reading an article from The Mudville Gazette. To reach the front page, with all the latest news and views, click the logo above or "main" below. Thanks for stopping by! July 10, 2005 Dennis "Hammers" FloridaBy GreyhawkMinor flooding reported near McDonalds If you tracked the progress of Dennis using links provided in previous entries you already know the peak sustained winds and gusts associated with landfall: Eglin AFB: 48 knots sustained, gust 72 knots - estimated Navy Pensacola: 39 knots sustained, gust 52 knots Crestview Florida peak gust 50 knots Panama City, Florida 30 knots sustained, gust 48 knots Mobile Alabama peak gust 42 knots Buoys: Station 42039 - PENSACOLA - 115NM East Southeast of Pensacola, FL sustained: 47 knots, gust 58 knots Station PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola sustained 35 knots gust 51 knots at 3PM CDT (no further reports) Weather channel video from: (Update: Original footage in the linked stories showed various reporters discussing how weak the storm was, but have since been replaced.) We may yet see some damage photos from storm surge or wind, but thus far it looks like Dennis was Tropical Storm strength at landfall. The Pensacola News/Journal: Dennis spares Pensacola Bay Area from Ivan-scale damage Mudville earlier today: You'll rarely (as in never) hear accurate media reports on actual hurricane wind strength. Although local reporters in hurricane country often do fine work, at the national level reporters don't fact check actual reports from observing sites. Instead they typically report the National Hurricane Center forecast of maximum winds expected as if it were an actual occurrence. Thus you end up with bizarre and sensational stories... National coverage: CNN: Dennis hits coast with 120 mph winds Reuters: UPDATE 5-Hurricane Dennis slams into storm-scarred US coast But the AP topped them all, and really had a go with those rubes in NY City, reporting this in the NY Times:
This in the wake of the utterly ridiculous reports from Guantanamo. Gov. Jeb Bush filled out the necessary paperwork on Sunday, July 10, asking the federal government to declare the state a major disaster area. According to that same report a "portable weather observation station" near Navarre measured a 121 mph gust at 3:11 p.m. Update: An updated CNN story includes a quote from a Navarre resident: Most tragically, "Dennis" has caused two deaths in the Florida panhandle:
We hope wherever you are the weather is fine. Update: Previous and additional coverage on the main page. A key point should be stressed here: Sensational type reporting - and exaggeration of minor storms into major stories - contributes to the lack of response on the part of many to a major storm when one does come along. People who erroneously believe they've survived a cat 3-4 storm will be in for a rude surprise when a real one moves in. Posted by Greyhawk / July 10, 2005 10:58 PM | Permalink 4 TrackBacksI just watched a clip of Anderson Cooper standing near a big hotel sign waiting to fall. A man next... Read More I just watched a clip of Anderson Cooper standing near a big hotel sign waiting to fall. A man next... Read More Hurricane Dennis has left Cuba and is now on track to blow into the Gulf Coast between Florida and L Read More Glad I'm not the only one sick to death of the overblown media coverage of Hurricane Dennis. I went through three of the damned things last year, but can't seem to remember seeing this level of artificial drama on Read More 17 Comments |
November 26, 2010America@war [Greyhawk]
I think anyone who's ever pondered the "comment" option - once only available on blogs and bulletin boards, now ubiquitous on almost any web site - will appreciate this:
The so-called faculty of writing is not so much a faculty of writing as it is a faculty of thinking. When a man says, "I have an idea but I can't express it"; that man hasn't an idea but merely a vague feeling. If a man has a feeling of that kind, and will sit down for a half an hour and persistently try to put into writing what he feels, the probabilities are at least 90 percent that he will either be able to record it, or else realize that he has no idea at all. In either case, he will do himself a benefit. That's wisdom from the past, captured for posterity at the US Naval Institute, shared via the web on the institute's 137th anniversary. From their about page:
"The Naval Institute has three core activities," among them, History and Preservation: The Naval Institute also has recently introduced Americans at War, a living history of Americans at war in their own words and from their own experiences. These 90-second vignettes convey powerful stories of inspiration, pride, and patriotism. Take a look at the collection, and you'll see it's not limited to accounts from those who served on ships at sea, members of the other branches are well-represented. I'm fortunate to have met USNI's Mary Ripley, she's responsible for the institute's oral history program (and she's the daughter of the late John Ripley, whose story is told here). She also deserves much credit for their blog. ("We're not the Navy nor any government agency. Blog and comment freely.") We met at a milblog conference - Mary knew (and I would come to realize) that milbloggers are the 21st-century version of exactly what the US Naval Institute is all about. Once that light bulb came on in my head, I mentioned a vague idea for a project to her - milblogs as the 21st century oral history that they are. "Put that in writing," she said (of course - see first paragraph above!) - and here's part of the result. Shortly after the first tent was pitched by the American military in Iraq a wire was connected to a computer therein, and the internet was available to a generation of Americans at war - many of whom had grown up online. From that point on, at any given moment, somewhere in Iraq a Soldier, Sailor, Airman or Marine was at a keyboard sharing the events of his or her day with the folks back home. While most would simply fire off an email, others took advantage of the (then) relatively new online blogging platforms to post their thoughts and experiences for the entire world to see. The milblog was born - and from that moment to this stories detailing everything from the most mundane aspects of camp life to intense combat action (often described within hours of the event) have been available on the web... And et cetera - but since you're reading this on a milblog, you probably knew that. And you know that milblogs aren't just blogs written by troops at war, that many friends, family members, and supporters likewise documented their story of America at war online in near-real time, as those stories developed. The diversity in membership of that group is broad, the one thing we all have in common is the impulse to make sense of the seemingly senseless, and communicate the tale - for each of us that impulse was strong enough to overcome whatever barriers prevent the vast majority of people from doing the same. Everyone at some point has some vague idea they believe should be shared - we were the people who, from some combination of internal and external urging, found and spent those many half hours persistently trying to write it down. But where will all that be in another 137 years? Or five or ten, for that matter. That's something I've asked myself since at least 2004 - when I wrote this:
Membership in the ghost battalion has grown in the years since, and an ever growing majority of those abandoned-but-still-standing sites are vanishing. Have you checked out Lt Smash's site lately? How about Sgt Hook's? If you're a long-time milblog reader you know the first widely-read milblog from Operation Iraq Freedom and the first widely-read milblog from Afghanistan are both gone from the web. If you're a relative newcomer to this world you may never even have heard of them - or the dozens upon dozens of others who carried forth the standard they set down. If you have a vague notion that something should be done about that, (a notion I've heard expressed more than once...) then you and I and the good folks at the US Naval Institute are in agreement. Preserving the history documented by the milbloggers is just one of the goals of the milblog project, the once-vague idea that we're now making real. And it's a big idea, if I say so myself - too big to explain in one simple blog post, so stand by for more. Likewise, it's too big a task to be accomplished by just one person. So if you're a milblogger (and exactly what is a milblogger? is a topic for much further discussion on its own) I'm asking for your help. All I'll really need is just a little bit (maybe just one or two of those half hours...) of your time, and your willingness to tell the tale. We've already made history, it's time to save it. (More to follow...) Posted 4:02 PM | Permalink |
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The Mudville Gazette is the on-line voice of an American warrior and his wife who stands by him. They prefer to see peaceful change render force of arms unnecessary. Until that day they stand fast with those who struggle for freedom, strike for reason, and pray for a better tomorrow.
 
 
 Furthermore, I will occasionally use satire or parody herein. The bottom line: it's my house. I like having visitors to my house. I hope you are entertained. I fight for your right to free speech, and am thrilled when you exercise said rights here. Comments and e-mails are welcome, but all such communication is to be assumed to be 1)the original work of any who initiate said communication and 2)the property of the Mudville Gazette, with free use granted thereto for publication in electronic or written form. If you do NOT wish to have your message posted, write "CONFIDENTIAL" in the subject line of your email. Original content copyright © 2003 - 2011 by Greyhawk. Fair, not-for-profit use of said material by others is encouraged, as long as acknowledgement and credit is given, to include the url of the original source post. Other arrangements can be made as needed. Contact: greyhawk at mudvillegazette dot com  Tending Distant Far from hearth and home, watching What tales we'll tell When things grim Some distant sunset, vision fading Saluting fallen friends whose names - Greyhawk, Baghdad, December 2004 |
I think the winds were a bit over tropical storm force.
Here's an eyewitness report (via phone from a parent of a blogger)
http://boudicca.mu.nu/archives/101539.html
Sounds a bit over tropical storm force to me. High category 1 winds at very least, and probably gusts into category 2. (We got that range from Charley and saw the same sort of damage.)
(btw, your spam software doesn't like the dash in my site URL)
The eye went between two ground sensors spaced about 20 miles apart. One sensor read 45 mph max the other read 56 mph max -- on the eastside. There was one gust report at 82 mph -- nothing larger.
Dennis was an overhyped dud. It went right by our house after cuba exit and it was a nothing storm. Charlie was far far worse. The overhype comes from two places, trying to tie the increased hurricane frequency to global warming, and compensation for the missed call by the NWS with Charlie.
The news coverage is way over the top, and will ultimately do more harm than good. Since they are pumping up the storms to a category they do not achieve in real life, when a real CAT 4 comes along people will say no big deal, I survived the last CAT 4 -- big mistake.
Another symptom of the need for cable news to fill time 24/7. Gosh I'm sick of those doing doing standups in the wind and rain. Do the producers expect us to go, OOH! look at that wind and rain! Look at the bright side; we can return our full concentration to the Aruba story tomorrow.
Last year I got a big kick out of one reporter who wore a hat for their on-location hurricane reporting, then went on about how many of their hats that they had lost to this uber-extreme wind (when the hurricane entirely missed us, except that some palm fronds got blown off, and some of the flimsier signs got messed up). Of course, when there's not a hurricane around, you never see them wearing a hat, much less having 10 hats in the camera van just so that they'll have another one to put on when the current hat gets blown off.
What are you talking about bill? At several points in time, Dennis was a true Category 4 hurricane. All you need to do to prove that is look at where Dennis madelandfall in Cuba. It caused enormous damage and suffering. If Dennis had hit at that strength in the United States, damage would have been catastrophic.
After going through Cuba, Dennis again reached true category 4 strength during mid-morning on Sunday. After reaching 145 mph peak winds, it began an eyewall replacement cycle. If it hadn't begun this, it likely would have remained a true category 4 hurricane until landfall.
Will said, "All you need to do to prove that is look at where Dennis madelandfall in Cuba. It caused enormous damage and suffering."
Sorry Will, but we can't go look in Cuba. AFAIK it's still illegal under federal law for Americans to travel there. But, both of my friend's parents are from Cuba. She tells me that news reports she sees about Cuba are usually quite rediculous and sensational, especially when involving storms or hurricanes. She said she has seen some that were completely made up.
I was watching the radar up close using Google Earth and Intellicast radar and the real story is this:
The eye passed just east of Pensacola, and some of the fringes of the city felt the weaker western edge of the wall. Most of those correspondents were in Pensacola and so missed the the real storm (and strangely didn't know the storm was missing them).
The brunt of any hurricane is the north-eastern wall, where the momentum of the storm is added to the rotational force - both wind and storm surge. This north-east brunt threaded the needle between the built up areas of Pensacola and Ft Walton beach. The barrier island at that point is barely built upon and inland is very low density. The eye passed over Pensacola Bay and so there were few witnesses to that.
It was a bad storm, but Florida dodged a bullet on this one.
Did anyone else notice that, once again, St. Pete, Clearwater and Madeira Beach have been magically moved by the press to Tampa?
I agree with equitus. Dennis hit right at the Gulf Shores National Seashore. There's nothing there to hit, and when I was at Pensacola Beach in May, there wasn't much there left to hit. Just inland from Santa Rosa Island is the west end of Eglin Air Force Base which has basically nothing there, either. We drove around Pensacola Bay, as it happens, and were suprised at how little builtup the Eastern side of the bay was. And there isn't much of anything in that part of Alabama either to hit outside of Flomaton.
Yes, but did any Korans get wet? Maybe (gasp) dropped in the mud? If so, we might be able to hold off the Aruba story for a few more days....
Quick, find out what the bug-eyed runaway bride thinks about this!
Or no, wait, do hurricanes hurt sharks? Will Dennis cause an increase or decrease in shark attacks? On our balanced panel today, someone from MoveOn.org, who will explain that the hurricane and resultant increase in shark attacks are Bush's fault, and someone from the Ford Foundation who will explain that the hurricane and the resultant increase in shark attacks are Bush's fault, but for a different reason.
So when is the "hyp" just right? If "hyp" means hyperbole, then we don't need ANY!
That said, the one was a huge relief. The Sunday NWS 4 am report was VERY scary - the rapid lessening of strength was a blessing for all - except the MSM. You do have to pity the poor on-camera guy - what's he going to say? "The boss just blew another $10k having us chase another non-story! Go watch "Lucy' reruns on cable and ignore me."
arminius said "Or no, wait, do hurricanes hurt sharks? Will Dennis cause an increase or decrease in shark attacks?"
You thought you were kidding, right? I actually heard a cable anchor yesterday (on FNC, I believe) ask an "expert" if there is a realtionship between increased shark / hurricane activity in the region. Ridiculous.
David
The area of the western Eglin ranges you describe with nothing there is actually a pine forest. Which, although lacking man-made structures has no shortage of trees, and those would reflect hurricane damage rather obviously.
Whether Dennis was a strong tropical storm or a weak hurricane is debatable. (Note that strong tropical storms do cause damage - that isn't the point of the discussion.) What's incresingly obvious is that at and before landfall it wasn't a cat 3 hurricane. And what's unfortunate is that the scientists who should learn from whatever went wrong with the intensity forecast in order to do better next time will instead insist they were exactly right.
On a positive note, the direction of movement and location of landfall were predicted exceptionally well - although some forecasts from Friday were a bit slow (calling for landfall on Monday) that's a reasonable error, and it was corrected in later forecasts.
Seems you are a little off with your figures (see http://flhurricane.com/) for this info [The person talking has a degree in meterology, do you?]:
"Here are some data points of interest:
1516Z: maximum flight level winds of 127 knots - translates to about 114 knots at the surface = Cat IV
1745Z: max flight level winds of 89 knots - translates to 80 knots at the surface = Cat I. This is the report that a lot of folks disregarded, but in fact it was when the original eyewall had collapsed.
1800Z: flight level winds rebound to 105 knots - or 95 knots at the surface = Cat II. The new eyewall begins to form.
1818Z: flight level max now reported at 118 knots - or about 103 knots at the surface = Cat III
1925Z: landfall near Navarre - one tower report of a sustained wind of 99mph (Cat II) at a location just east of the eyewall. Aircraft microwave measurements of 102-105 knots = Cat III
1930Z: aircraft max flight level wind report of 117 knots - about 105 knots at the surface = Cat III
Given the above, it seems likely that Dennis made landfall as a mid-strength Cat III Hurricane. Although the overall system was large, the core and eye were small and the Cat III winds would have only extended over a very narrow area west of Navarre."
"Which, although lacking man-made structures has no shortage of trees, and those would reflect hurricane damage rather obviously."
No, not so obviously.
1) Southern pines are very sturdy and somewhat "aerodynamic" in that they don't have large leaves to catch the wind. A Cat 5 might have knocked a bunch down, a Cat 4 probably not as many, and a Cat 3 not too likely.
2) These reporters saying there is no damage have likely not ventured into these forests.
But we'll see.
I guess I should reiterate why I'm adamant on this point:
The thread was about how the media overhyped David. The contention was that they were exaggerating its strength, possibly for ratings or to get people exciting, and were "found out."
I'm contending that this was indeed a storm to worry about, but we were very fortunate that circumstances worked out in the last hour so that damage was remarkably (miraculously?) minimal.
Here's an angle you might hear in the next days or weeks: Christian evangelicals claiming the power of prayer saved those poor souls who had already suffered from Ivan last year.
Winds aloft aren't the same as winds at the surface. You have 100mph winds somewhere above your house several days a year.
More here