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« Shots from the Front | Main | Farewell President Reagan »

June 3, 2004

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D-Day +60 Forecast

By Greyhawk

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From the United States Air Force Europe Operational Weather Squadron, the weather forecast for the Normandy area for the 60th anniversary of the D-Day landings.

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Update 3 Jun 2004: Are the weather guys hedging their bets?

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Today's outlook calls for a spell of light rain and fog on Friday morning, a time previously expected to be just 'mostly cloudy'. Given the minimum conditions needed for parachute drops the following day, this negative trend does not bode well...

(Que foggy lens, wavering blur, harp-like tones, camera on backwards running clock; fade out then in again on black-and-white world...)

"...If you know the enemy and know yourself, your victory will not stand in doubt; if you know Heaven and know Earth, you may make your victory complete."

-- Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Fade in: 1944.

Sun Tzu's reference to Heaven is considered a nod to the whims of weather, an acknowledgement of it's impact on all man's efforts; a tribute to nature's callous disregard for those who would plan without consideration for it's vagaries.

Erik Brenstrum, of the Meteorological Service of New Zealand, writing on the 50th anniversary of the event, called the original D-Day weather forecast The Most Important Forecast in History:

RAIN FELL FROM overcast skies and gale force winds drove large waves on to the beaches of Normandy as dawn broke on Monday June 5, 1944. To the Germans watching their defences, there was nothing to show that this was the moment the Allied Armies had planned to invade Europe. In fact, the operation had been put on hold because the bad weather had been forecast 24 hours before. Had it gone ahead in these conditions, the invasion would have been a catastrophic disaster.

Nevertheless, the invasion had to occur on either the 5th, 6th or 7th of June to take advantage of the right conditions of moon and tide. Darkness was needed when the airborne troops went in, but moonlight once they were on the ground. Spring low tide was necessary to ensure extreme low sea level so that the landing craft could spot and avoid the thousands of mined obstacles that had been deployed on the beaches. If this narrow time slot was missed, the invasion would have to be delayed for two weeks.

The decision to postpone the invasion for 24 hours had been taken by Eisenhower and the Supreme Command at 0430 on Sunday June 4. It was not taken lightly, because so many ships were already converging on Normandy that the risk of detection was grave.

Nor had the forecast which prompted the postponement been easily arrived at. Eisenhower's weather advice was provide by Group Captain Stagg, a forecaster seconded from the British Meteorological Office who was coordinating the advice of three forecasting teams: one from the Meteorological Office, one from the Admiralty and one from the United States Army Air Forces.

The advice of these groups was often diametrically opposed. The American team used an analog method, comparing the current map with maps from the past, and were often over-optimistic. The Meteorological Office, aided by the brilliant Norwegian theoretician Sverre Petterssen, had a more dynamic approach, using wind and temperature observations from high altitude provide by the air force, and were closer to the mark.

The decision to invade on Tuesday June 6, taken late on Sunday night and finally confirmed early Monday morning, was based on a forecast of a short period of improved weather caused by a strengthening ridge following the front that brought Monday's rain and strong winds. In the event, Monday's bad weather had already given the Allies a crucial advantage: it had put the Germans off guard.

More to come...

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Note: This post in honor of the 60th anniversary of D-Day, is one of many available by clicking the graphic link above.


Posted by Greyhawk / June 3, 2004 6:08 AM | Permalink

3 TrackBacks

"In the final choice, a soldier's pack is not so heavy a burden as a prisoner's chains." - Dwight D. Eisenhower Welcome to a MilBlogs And Friends Special Edition of the Sixtieth Anniversary of D-Day! On June 6th, 1944, Read More

On The Altar from baldilocks on June 6, 2004 4:32 AM

BlackFive has been keeping list of links in conjunction with the Sixtieth Anniversary of D-Day. Greyhawk has a tribute of his own going and has created this outstanding graphic for Milblogs: I had planned to wait until tomorrow to post Read More

Do you know what the letter "D" really stands for in D-Day? Here are some good sources for keeping the memory alive: The Sixtieth Anniversary of D-Day @ Blackfive - The Paratrooper of Love. [Via Mudville Gazette.] Normandy 1944 @ Encyclopædia Bri... Read More

4 Comments

Is it too late to begin planning for D-Day2? The French are in dire need of another liberation :)

Ran across your site while googling "Scott Ritter," saw your blog post on him a while back. While I appreciate your service for us in Afghanistan, I think you've got Ritter all wrong, yes he really HAS been vindicated, and your petty personal attacks on him don't change that fact.

Iraq's WMD's were ancient history by 2003, and instead of getting sidetracked in Iraq, we should've kept our forces there in Afghanistan to help you guys finish the mission there. Given 9/11, one Osama equals a thousand Saddams.

TP
How'd scotty miss that sarin filled UNMARKED artillery shell that Saddam never claimed to have made? I guess only one was manufactured.
As far as Osama is concerned.
Please post a link to any PICTURE or VIDEO of Osama after with bombed his ass in Afghanistan.
Osama is DEAD!
Given Saddam's agents met with the hijackers prior to 9/11 President Bush is vindicated for killing oday and quesy Hussein, capturing Saddam and bringing hope to the people of Iraq. As usual the naybobs of negativity are proven wrong when the history books are written.
You were probably one of the ones who said President Reagan was wrong to confront the Soviet union in the 80's, that it would lead to nuclear war. Must really suck to be a lib and be wrong all the time.

Before I begin, let me be crystal clear:
good work in Afghanistan, never doubted our efforts there. And I ALWAYS support the troops and our military, if not always the civilian policy.

Glad to hear Osama is dead, that is news I would welcome, along with the rest of America. Unfortunately, that bit of news has yet to reach us here, so if you have any information, please let it be known more publicly--we'll all be happy.

You mean that unmarked straggler sarin shell that dates from the 80's? The last sarin produced in Iraq was in 1991, when we blew up the factory, and all the specialized equipment and materials to make the shit. David Kay, Bush's handpicked weapons inspector, said again yesterday that there were no current stockpiles, that there won't be any stockpiles found, and that those who still cling to that belief are "delusional." He has said this sarin shell was most likely a scavenged stray from the 80's, and "doesn't speak to the issue of whether weapons of mass destruction were still being produced in Iraq in the mid-1990s."

Take your arguement up with him.

Let's at least be intellectually honest here. Ritter never said there were NO WMD's left, he said they'd accounted for and destroyed 95% of them (making Iraq fundamentally, if not absolutely disarmed--in any case no longer a legitamate threat to the US). One of the reasons that 5% remained unaccounted for was BECAUSE some of them were unmarked and mixed in with the conventional munitions, making it near impossible for either the inspectors OR the Iraqis to identify them.

But hey, if you want to invade and occupy a country that doesn't appreciate it, get 800+ Americans (and counting) killed, all because of a few measly 5% unaccounted for outdated, rusting relics from the 80's, and end up with no democracy in sight (most likely with some crazy Islamist dictator gaining power), hey be my guest.

Oh by the way, that bit about the hijackers meeting with Iraqis in Prague has been completely discredited, and was among the crap "intelligence" that the Iranians {deleted} us with via Ahmed Chalabi. Sorry to hear you got duped by the Iranian intelligence agency, an axis of evil.

Guess you conservatives get it wrong all the time too.

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November 26, 2010


America@war
[Greyhawk]
I think anyone who's ever pondered the "comment" option - once only available on blogs and bulletin boards, now ubiquitous on almost any web site - will appreciate this:
The so-called faculty of writing is not so much a faculty of writing as it is a faculty of thinking. When a man says, "I have an idea but I can't express it"; that man hasn't an idea but merely a vague feeling. If a man has a feeling of that kind, and will sit down for a half an hour and persistently try to put into writing what he feels, the probabilities are at least 90 percent that he will either be able to record it, or else realize that he has no idea at all. In either case, he will do himself a benefit.

That's wisdom from the past, captured for posterity at the US Naval Institute, shared via the web on the institute's 137th anniversary.

From their about page:

The Naval Institute shall remain

INDEPENDENT - A non-profit member association, with no government support, that does not lobby for special interests;

NON-PARTISAN - An independent, professional military association with a mission, goals and objectives that transcend political affiliations; and shall encourage

IDEAS - Through its respected journals Proceedings and Naval History, its conferences, its books and its online content, in support of those who serve.

"The Naval Institute has three core activities," among them, History and Preservation:

The Naval Institute also has recently introduced Americans at War, a living history of Americans at war in their own words and from their own experiences. These 90-second vignettes convey powerful stories of inspiration, pride, and patriotism.

Take a look at the collection, and you'll see it's not limited to accounts from those who served on ships at sea, members of the other branches are well-represented.

I'm fortunate to have met USNI's Mary Ripley, she's responsible for the institute's oral history program (and she's the daughter of the late John Ripley, whose story is told here). She also deserves much credit for their blog. ("We're not the Navy nor any government agency. Blog and comment freely.") We met at a milblog conference - Mary knew (and I would come to realize) that milbloggers are the 21st-century version of exactly what the US Naval Institute is all about. Once that light bulb came on in my head, I mentioned a vague idea for a project to her - milblogs as the 21st century oral history that they are.

"Put that in writing," she said (of course - see first paragraph above!) - and here's part of the result.

Shortly after the first tent was pitched by the American military in Iraq a wire was connected to a computer therein, and the internet was available to a generation of Americans at war - many of whom had grown up online. From that point on, at any given moment, somewhere in Iraq a Soldier, Sailor, Airman or Marine was at a keyboard sharing the events of his or her day with the folks back home. While most would simply fire off an email, others took advantage of the (then) relatively new online blogging platforms to post their thoughts and experiences for the entire world to see. The milblog was born - and from that moment to this stories detailing everything from the most mundane aspects of camp life to intense combat action (often described within hours of the event) have been available on the web...

And et cetera - but since you're reading this on a milblog, you probably knew that. And you know that milblogs aren't just blogs written by troops at war, that many friends, family members, and supporters likewise documented their story of America at war online in near-real time, as those stories developed.

The diversity in membership of that group is broad, the one thing we all have in common is the impulse to make sense of the seemingly senseless, and communicate the tale - for each of us that impulse was strong enough to overcome whatever barriers prevent the vast majority of people from doing the same. Everyone at some point has some vague idea they believe should be shared - we were the people who, from some combination of internal and external urging, found and spent those many half hours persistently trying to write it down.

*****

But where will all that be in another 137 years? Or five or ten, for that matter. That's something I've asked myself since at least 2004 - when I wrote this:

Closing Blogs is nothing new. So many site's owners just give up on their own. They come and go, you know, these MilBloggers do. Like any other sort of blogger. Many post in the lonely down hours far from home, spill their guts for the world, then abandon their spots when the tour of duty is up. They have lives again somewhere in the world, and no need to share the details. So it goes.

Many are truly gone - no site left at all. "The page cannot be found." Other blogs remain, like abandoned defensive positions in shifting desert sands.

Membership in the ghost battalion has grown in the years since, and an ever growing majority of those abandoned-but-still-standing sites are vanishing. Have you checked out Lt Smash's site lately? How about Sgt Hook's? If you're a long-time milblog reader you know the first widely-read milblog from Operation Iraq Freedom and the first widely-read milblog from Afghanistan are both gone from the web. If you're a relative newcomer to this world you may never even have heard of them - or the dozens upon dozens of others who carried forth the standard they set down.

If you have a vague notion that something should be done about that, (a notion I've heard expressed more than once...) then you and I and the good folks at the US Naval Institute are in agreement. Preserving the history documented by the milbloggers is just one of the goals of the milblog project, the once-vague idea that we're now making real.

And it's a big idea, if I say so myself - too big to explain in one simple blog post, so stand by for more. Likewise, it's too big a task to be accomplished by just one person. So if you're a milblogger (and exactly what is a milblogger? is a topic for much further discussion on its own) I'm asking for your help. All I'll really need is just a little bit (maybe just one or two of those half hours...) of your time, and your willingness to tell the tale.

We've already made history, it's time to save it.

(More to follow...)




Posted 4:02 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) |

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The Mudville Gazette is the on-line voice of an American warrior and his wife who stands by him. They prefer to see peaceful change render force of arms unnecessary. Until that day they stand fast with those who struggle for freedom, strike for reason, and pray for a better tomorrow.
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  • True Patriot: Before I begin, let me be crystal clear: good work read more
  • slapademocrat04: TP How'd scotty miss that sarin filled UNMARKED artillery shell read more
  • True Patriot: Ran across your site while googling "Scott Ritter," saw your read more
  • Jim G.: Is it too late to begin planning for D-Day2? The read more

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The Mudville Gazette is written and produced by Greyhawk, who recently retired from 24 years of active duty in the US military, but will maintain this disclaimer: Unless otherwise credited, the opinions expressed are those of the author, and nothing here is to be taken as representing the official position of or endorsement by the United States Department of Defense or any of its subordinate components.

Furthermore, I will occasionally use satire or parody herein. The bottom line: it's my house.

I like having visitors to my house. I hope you are entertained. I fight for your right to free speech, and am thrilled when you exercise said rights here. Comments and e-mails are welcome, but all such communication is to be assumed to be 1)the original work of any who initiate said communication and 2)the property of the Mudville Gazette, with free use granted thereto for publication in electronic or written form. If you do NOT wish to have your message posted, write "CONFIDENTIAL" in the subject line of your email.

Original content copyright © 2003 - 2011 by Greyhawk. Fair, not-for-profit use of said material by others is encouraged, as long as acknowledgement and credit is given, to include the url of the original source post. Other arrangements can be made as needed.

Contact: greyhawk at mudvillegazette dot com

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*****

Tending Distant
Fires


Far from hearth and home, watching
Cold alone but not alone
On distant shore and only wanting
Safe return and little more

What tales we'll tell
When that time comes
When tales can be told

When things grim
Seem far away
When other fires go cold

Some distant sunset, vision fading
Memories remain
And tired eyes gaze 'pon folded flags
While distant drums beat their refrain

Saluting fallen friends whose names
And youth will never fade
Here's to those on other shores,
for them live well, the price is paid

- Greyhawk,
Baghdad,
December 2004